stormbringer
ghunar
From what I've seen I think Booth gets around 4,000 applications, not 5,500. If someone can point me to a site that shows 5,500 I'd be curious to see that.
Well, a current student told me the average is about 5000 (last year's BW figure is 4400). I made it 5500 for ease in calculation.

But I did not consider yield. My mistakes. That certainly ups chances to about 30-35%.
Just look at the US News rankings table....they quote an acceptance rate of 24.8% (you have to have the premium edition for this). If they interview about 50% of the applicants and accept 25%, then we can infer the probability of admission, given an interview is conducted, is close to 50% (including wait-list conversions).
Real statistics from US news premium edition:
Full-time applicants:3843
Accepted:954
Enrolled:592