The H-1B Cap Weighted Selection Final Rule Is Out!
Going forward, the random lottery will be replaced with a wage-weighted selection model where higher OES wage levels have a greater chance of selection.
Here's what the data shows:
Current system (random): Everyone has ~35% odds regardless of wage level (USCIS selected ~118K of ~336K registrations in FY26).
New weighted system projections:
Level I (lowest wage): 15.29% (48% decrease)
Level II: 30.58% (3% increase)
Level III: 45.87% (55% increase)
Level IV (highest wage): 61.16% (107% increase)
What this means in practice:
If you're a software engineer in SF making $150K, you're probably a wage level 1 worker. Your odds just got cut in half.
There are also new compliance requirements:
Registrations must now include OEWS wage level, SOC code, and work location
Petitions must later prove the wage level was accurate as of registration date
USCIS may deny, revoke, or refuse amendments if changes appear designed to improve lottery odds
The government's rationale is prioritizing workers who contribute more economically to the US.
But this fundamentally changes who gets to stay in the US.
Early career professionals and those in lower-paying but essential roles will face steeper odds.
This creates a two-tier system where your economic value determines your immigration chances.
For employers: Start planning now. The registration period is only months away.
For workers: Understand your wage level and explore all options, including alternative visa categories.
This is the biggest change to H-1B selection since the cap was introduced.
The immigration landscape just shifted dramatically.