George: Some scientists say that global warming will occur because peo

Question

George: Some scientists say that global warming will occur because people are releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning trees and fossil fuels. We can see, though, that the predicted warming is occurring already. In the middle of last winter, we had a month of springlike weather in our area, and this fall, because of unusually mild temperatures, the leaves on our town’s trees were three weeks late in turning color.

Which one of the following would it be most relevant to investigate in evaluating the conclusion of George’s argument?

(A) whether carbon dioxide is the only cause of global warming
(B) when leaves on the trees in the town usually change color
(C) what proportion of global emissions of carbon dioxide is due to the burning of trees by humans
(D) whether air pollution is causing some trees in the areas to lose their leaves
(E) whether unusually warm weather is occurring elsewhere on the globe more frequently than before

PTK · Accepted Answer

Seemed odd to me at first glance

Very often, when atacking a CR question , we must look at the CONCLUSION, premises just to support the conclusion and they should not be touched. Premise 1 ( provided by very smart people!) : global warming will occur because people are releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, so: the release of CO2 leads -> to global warming Premise/evidence 2: we had a month of springlike weather AND this fall the leaves on our town’s trees were three weeks late in turning color. Evidence of warm weather is provided . We begin to believe in the premise 1 provided by scientists and the evidence provided in premise 2. Conclusion is : the predicted warming is occurring already Ok so far? Good. to undermine the conclusion we must cast doubts on CONCLUSION AND not on premises, as they are often unchangeable. (A) whether carbon dioxide is the only cause of global warming - we don't care about the cause or whether it is only one or may be two casues - this atacks premise 1, we care about only "warming is occurring already" (B) when leaves on the trees in the town usually change color - usually? so what? this refers to premise 2, we keep in mind that "warming is occurring already" - not relevant, eliminate it! (C) what proportion of global emissions of carbon dioxide is due to the burning of trees by humans - - irrelevant: 1.since atacks premise not conclusion, 2. carbon dioxide proportion due to "the burning of trees by humans" is smaller when comparing to burning fossil fuels. (D) whether air pollution is causing some trees in the area to lose their leaves - it may cause or it may not, but how does it refers to conclusion? - eliminate it! moreover, D talks about polution and trees to lose their leaves, something about warming? No! move on. (E) whether unusually warm weather is occurring elsewhere on the globe more frequently than before - THIS IS IT! What if the warm weather is occurring elsewhere on the globe with the same frequency as before? If yes, it is occuring then the predicted warming is NOT occurring already - it really atacks the conclusion! \

Bunuel · Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION

(A) No. George’s conclusion is that global warming is already occurring. He is not concerned with the causes of global warming.

(B) No. George stated all the relevant information need on this point: the leaves turned color three weeks later into fall than usual.

(C) No. George’s conclusion is that global warming is already occurring. He is not concerned with the causes of global warming.

(D) No. George’s argument concerns global warming. He does not address issues of pollution.

(E) Yes.  The unusually warm weather may only be a local phenomenon. It needs to be determined whether similar changes are occurring elsewhere before the climatic shifts can be considered  global  warming.

dalmba · Answer

E! Reasoning:

nverma · Answer

Conclusion : "We can see, though, that t he predicted warming is occurring already ."

I found it a bit tricky..!!
But on D-day, i 'll go with E.

OA plz.

ssriva2 · Answer

Hey  mikemcgarry ,
I think A is also a strong contender but we eliminated here A because we are concerned only about some scientists who say that global warming will occur because people are releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.If "some " is not mentioned in stimulus,then it would be A? 
Please guide so that i have clear understanding of concepts.

NickHalden · Answer

Premise 1: Burn trees/Fossil fuels -> Carbon dioxide -> Will cause Global Warming
Conclusion : Global warming is occurring already
Premise 2: last winter -> a month of springlike weather in our area, and this fall -> the leaves were three weeks late in turning color

(A) whether carbon dioxide is the only cause of global warming
Consider it to be true : Doesn't increase the likelihood of the conclusion
Consider it to be false : Doesn't decrease the likelihood of the conclusion

(E) whether unusually warm weather is occurring elsewhere on the globe more frequently than before 
Consider it to be true : Increases the likelihood of the conclusion -> Warming is taking place all over
Consider it to be false : Decreases the likelihood of the conclusion -> There is some specific exceptional scenario in the author's city.

Hence E is the correct answer. 
I hope it clarifies the doubt!!

pri.07.23 · Answer

Premise 1--> global warming will occur because people are releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning trees and fossil fuels
Conclusion 2 --> GB is already occurring.
Premise 2 --> In the middle of last winter, we had a month of springlike weather in our area, and this fall, because of unusually mild temperatures, the leaves on our town’s trees were three weeks late in turning color.

Evaluate the conclusion: Conclusion says that GB has already occurred because of Premise 2.

AC will be any statement which calls into question the premise 2 based on which conclusion is made. and not premise 1 as no conclusion is made based on it   (This is the reason AC (A) is wrong!!)

Hence AC (E) attacks Premise 2 based on which conclusion is made!

Extremes Test : Extreme 1, Yes warming is happening in a lot of cities already. This strengthens the conclusion made on the basis of Premise 1
 Extreme 2, No warming is not happening anywhere else other than George's city. It means Premise 2 is only specific to the author's city and is not generic. Hence it is not due to GB but something else.!

Skywalker18 · Answer

George: Some scientists say that global warming will occur because people are releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning trees and fossil fuels. We can see, though, that the predicted warming is occurring already. In the middle of last winter, we had a month of springlike weather in our area, and this fall, because of unusually mild temperatures, the leaves on our town’s trees were three weeks late in turning color.

Which one of the following would it be most relevant to investigate in evaluating the conclusion of George’s argument?

Conc: Global warming is already occurring

Prem: Weather in my area is weirdly warm
Pre-thinking - This is a sampling flaw. Can we assume that the weather in George's area is a representative sample of global weather patterns?

To analyze that argument core, we are asking ourselves, "If I accept that the weather in George's area is weirdly warm, do I have to accept that global warming is already occurring?"

(A) whether carbon dioxide is the only cause of global warming -- Incorrect --He never claimed to know what is causing global warming. He only claimed that global warming is happening.
(B) when leaves on the trees in the town usually change color -- We believe George's premise, that the leaves were late in changing color. We don't need to question this.
(C) what proportion of global emissions of carbon dioxide is due to the burning of trees by humans --We don't care exactly what proportion of CO2 emissions comes from burning trees. George's argument core has nothing to do with CO2 emissions or trees. That 1st sentence has nothing to do with George's argument core.
(D) whether air pollution is causing some trees in the are to lose their leaves --This is temptingly close to an answer that would propose an alternative cause for why the leaves in George's area are late in turning color. However, this isn't about causing leaves to turn color more quickly or slowly. It's about leaves falling off. That's not relevant to George's evidence or his conclusion.
(E) whether unusually warm weather is occurring elsewhere on the globe more frequently than before - Correct - If we say unusually warm weather IS happening globally more frequently than before, then we strengthen George's argument that global warming is currently happening.

If we say unusually warm weather IS NOT happening globally more frequently than before, then we weaken George's argument that global warming is currently happening.

Answer E

TheNightKing · Answer

The only trick is to realize the conclusion of George. He believes Global Warming is already happening whereas Scientist say Global warming "will" occur.

Only E remains rest everything has nothing to do with the conclusion.

CEdward · Answer

Key distinction is between local versus global.

First, we need to establish what George's conclusion is: "predicted warming is occurring already"

George: Some scientists say that global warming will occur because people are releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning trees and fossil fuels. We can see, though, that the predicted warming is occurring already. In the middle of last winter, we had a month of springlike weather in our area, and this fall, because of unusually mild temperatures, the leaves on our town’s trees were three weeks late in turning color.

Which one of the following would it be most relevant to investigate in evaluating the conclusion of George’s argument?

(A) whether carbon dioxide is the  only cause  of global warming
-knowing whether CO2 is the ONLY cause does nothing to help us evaluate the conclusion
(B) when leaves on the trees in the town usually change color
-we already know this from the passage...it's three weeks earlier than whenever the trees actually did end up changing colours
(C) what  proportion  of global emissions of carbon dioxide is due to the burning of trees by humans
-this doesn't move the needle at all...there's no use in knowing this proportion
(D) whether air pollution is causing some trees in the areas to lose their leaves
-irrelevant
(E) whether unusually warm weather is occurring elsewhere on the globe more frequently than before CORRECT
-perhaps the phenomenon is just localized...he's making a conclusion about the globe, but uses evidence about his local area.

Thekingmaker · Answer

i was falling into the gamt trap answers for a while now ..this one is definitely E i am not ruining the fun of finding the answer own youur own like others just lending support one trick being when you are down to the last 2 option chose the one that makes the least semse just jocking it works sometime

VerbalBot · Answer

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George: Some scientists say that global warming will occur because peo

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