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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping

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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jul 2009, 21:44
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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?


A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?

B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?



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QOTD: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Apr 2018, 11:54
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The passage begins with the conclusion: "If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville."

The activist bases this conclusion on the following evidence: "Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district."

Sure, this doesn't PROVE that the same thing will happen in Morganville. However, the evidence seems to suggest that if Morganville opens a SaveAll on the outskirts of town, then we would expect more than a quarter of the stores in the central shopping district to experience bankruptcy within five years.

According to the author, these bankruptcies would indicate that the central shopping district is no longer healthy (here "healthy" means "flourishing" or "prospering"). The author believes that this effect can be avoided if the town prevents the SaveAll from opening.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

Quote:
A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?

Perhaps community activists have thwarted the opening of SaveAll stores in other towns. So what? Maybe if we knew that the bankruptcy rates were LOWER in those towns, then we would have information relevant to the argument.

But simply knowing the answer to (A) doesn't help us evaluate the author's logic. Regardless of the answer, the author would still be concerned about the evidence from the towns in which a SaveAll DID open. (A) is irrelevant and can be eliminated.

Quote:
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

We don't care whether residents do all, most, some, or very little of their shopping at stores in Morganville. Whatever the percentage, we would simply want to know whether that percentage will CHANGE if a SaveAll is opened.

Knowing whether the percentage will increase or decrease in Morganville's shopping district would certainly be useful, but simply knowing the current percentage would not help us evaluate the argument. Eliminate (B).

Quote:
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

Let's say we find out that roughly a quarter of stores in a HEALTHY central shopping district suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period. This would be evidence that losing a quarter of the stores to bankruptcy is NOT a sign that a shopping district is "unhealthy". In that case, the records from the other towns would simply show that, DESPITE having a SaveAll, the shopping districts maintained healthy bankruptcy rates.

So, the fact that a quarter of stores in Morganville's central shopping district will likely experience bankruptcy is no cause for alarm. This is what we would expect in ANY healthy central shopping district. So, based on the evidence, there is no reason to expect that opening a SaveAll will negatively affect the health of the central shopping district.

Answering this question would certainly be useful in evaluating the argument, so hang on to (C).

Quote:
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?

We don't care about the staff at the SaveAll. The argument is not related to employment/unemployment stats. Maybe most of the employees are from Morganville and maybe not. Either way, will opening a SaveAll cause an unhealthy level of bankruptcies? (D) does not help us evaluate the argument, so eliminate this one.

Quote:
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

Maybe they do and maybe they don't. In either case, the SaveAll stores could negatively affect business in the central shopping districts and cause bankruptcies within five years. (E) is irrelevant and can be eliminated.

(C) is the best answer.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 26 Jul 2009, 20:00
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I pick C. The author suggests that the opening of the saveall store causes bankruptcies to occur in 25% of the stores in the shopping district. if we were to know what the percentage of stores went bankrupt, independent of the effects of saveall, it would shed insight on whether or not saveall contributes to the effect, and thus help us evaluate the author's reasoning.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 26 Jul 2009, 20:32
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B: for me.

C has a very strong case, but I think B calls out a more fundamental issue than C does.

B:
Currently, do people shop in the central shopping district? If yes, then yeah saveall will cause a major problem. But if people do not, then saveall's effects on past bankruptcies as a reason to not allow them to open shop does not hold much water.

And if people, do shop in the central shopping district then allowing saveall to open shop can definitely play a big part in future bankruptcies.

C: The key piece of info missing here is SaveAll's effect on these bankruptcies. Even if we were to know how many shops go bankrupt during a five-year period, it has no correlation to SaveAll's effects.

Between, B & C --> B sounds more reasonable to me.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2009, 13:20
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Jivana wrote:
B: for me.

C has a very strong case, but I think B calls out a more fundamental issue than C does.

B:
Currently, do people shop in the central shopping district? If yes, then yeah saveall will cause a major problem. But if people do not, then saveall's effects on past bankruptcies as a reason to not allow them to open shop does not hold much water.

And if people, do shop in the central shopping district then allowing saveall to open shop can definitely play a big part in future bankruptcies.

C: The key piece of info missing here is SaveAll's effect on these bankruptcies. Even if we were to know how many shops go bankrupt during a five-year period, it has no correlation to SaveAll's effects.

Between, B & C --> B sounds more reasonable to me.


The problem with B is that even if you know whether most people in Morganville shop in the central district, Saveall might still cause bankruptcies because everyone will move to Saveall. If you knew whether most people in OTHER districts used to shop in the central district, before Saveall was opened, that may help.

I think you're missing what C states.
25% of shops go bankrupt after Saveall opens. If 5% go bankrupt during a five-year period, Saveall is "correlated" with a 20% increase in bankruptcies. If 25% of shops go bankrupt, then there's no real correlation between Saveall and an increase in bankruptcies. Thus knowing the "a priori" percentage of bankruptcies would help in evaluating whether or not Saveall contributes to such an effect.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Sep 2009, 20:20
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As per OG 12
Situation: Morganville should stop SaveAll from opening a store on its outskirts if it wants to keep
its shopping district healthy. Other small towns have experienced bankruptcies in
25 percent of the stores in their central shopping district within five years after such
openings.

REASONING:Which option provides the information that it would be most useful to know in evaluating the argument? Th e argument contends that if SaveAll opens a store in Morganville, then that
will somehow undermine the health of the shopping district. Two basic questions arise
when evaluating the bankruptcy data from other small towns: (1) Did the opening of
SaveAlls cause any of these bankruptcies? No information is given about bankruptcy
rates in small towns without SaveAlls. (2) Is a 25 percent bankruptcy rate over five years
unhealthy?

OE for B&C

B The conclusion would be supported just as well—or as poorly—if this question were answered with a yes as with a no.
C Correct. This option provides the information that it would be most useful to know in evaluating
the argument.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Jun 2011, 17:49
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C it is.

Apply variance test

To apply the variance test , you should choose polar opposite answers:


In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

Ans 1 : More than a quarter (25%) : Well that means SaveAll does not cause bankruptcies. Since it is happening in towns with Healthy shopping districts, it must be normal for a quarter to go bankrupt in 5 year period.


Ans 2 : Less than a quarter(25 %) : That means SaveAll does cause some stores to go bankrupt.


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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Sep 2013, 19:21
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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

the community activist’s reasoning is about the relationship between the opening saveall in the outskirts and the bankruptcies of stores in shopping district

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
if this is true, it not necessary that the activist's reasoning is not true

B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
it does not affect the activist's reasoning about the records in other small towns

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
Correct, its useful to compare the records in the reasoning with the records of those towns in typical period to see if the relationship between the opening saveall in the outskirts and the bankruptcies of stores in shopping district is significant

D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from Morganville?
It s not relevant

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?
the answer to this question is not useful to evaluate the relationship between the opening saveall in the outskirts and the bankruptcies of stores in shopping district


why is the answer C here .. why is B not applicable ...

how is proportion important here to the impact

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jan 2016, 00:29
I feel your reasoning is a little too complicated. Let us try a simpler approach. The argument suggests it is because of Save all that the stores in the town suffer bankruptcies and this has been a trend in these five year period. In order to analyse the credibility behind this statement we have to analyse weather the bankruptcies are a coincidence, a natural phenomenon, or is it because of the opening of Save all. As suggested in "C" if we can find out what proportion of stores in a healthy shopping district suffer bankruptcy in a typical five year period it will help us to asses weather Save all is responsible for the same.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Apr 2017, 00:12
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perfectstranger wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

OG2017 CR632 P535


Step 1: Identify the Question

The words useful for evaluating in the question stem indicate that this is an Evaluate the Argument question.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

CA: if keep CSD healthy → don’t open SA ©
Other: SA open, >1/4 stores → bankrupt in 5 yrs
(Note: the © symbol is one way to indicate the conclusion in your notes.)

The argument assumes a certain cause-effect relationship: that the opening of a SaveAll causes many other stores to go bankrupt. If this effect is valid, then allowing the opening a SaveAll in Morganville does not make sense. But, could there be another explanation?

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Evaluate questions, the answers will be in the form of a question or a “whether x is true” statement. The correct answer will address an issue on which the argument hinges, depending on whether that statement is true: one way, the argument will be strengthened; the other way, the argument will be weakened.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument hinges on whether the SaveAll really does cause other stores to go bankrupt, not whether the community activist will be successful in trying to block SaveAll. For that reason, whether other community activists have managed to prevent SaveAll from opening in other towns is irrelevant to the argument.
(B) Whether the percentage is large (e.g., 80%) or small (e.g., 20%) does not impact the argument. At the moment, enough people shop at these businesses in town to allow them to stay in business. The question is whether too many shoppers will change their behavior after SaveAll opens.
(C) CORRECT. If, in any given five-year period, one-quarter (or more) of businesses can be expected to go bankrupt regardless of what else is happening in the marketplace, then the statistic cited by the community activist no longer supports her argument. SaveAll wouldn’t be hurting other businesses in the way her statistic implies and her argument is weakened. If, on the other hand, only something like one-tenth of businesses would normally go bankrupt, then the argument is strengthened: more businesses are going bankrupt than would otherwise have been expected, so perhaps SaveAll really is the cause.
(D) The argument hinges on the health of other businesses in Morganville, not on employment opportunities for the town’s residents. In the real world, it might be reasonable to factor in possible impacts on employment, but this argument does not ask us to do so.
(E) The argument hinges on the health of other businesses in Morganville, not on the profits that SaveAll might make. Even if SaveAll did sometimes lose money in the first five years, it would still be true that more than one-quarter of other businesses in the area could be expected to go bankrupt.
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QOTD: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Apr 2018, 01:28
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Premise : Whenever SaveAll opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years, more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district have become bankrupt.
Conclusion : Prevent opening of SaveAll discount department store.
In evaluate question, we have to find the answer to which question among the options helps us to find the correct reason for the argument.
Going through the options:

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns? - We don't know whether succesful campaign can help to stop opening of Saveall store. Out

B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville? - Since the premise already tells that even though the Saveall store may open in the outskirts, other stores will face bankruptcy. Out

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period? - This option gives us another reason that helps to link the bankruptcy of other stores and opening of Saveall. If normally stores suffer bankruptcy in 5 years, then Saveall is not the reason for bankruptcy. Correct.

D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville? - Irrelevant

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation? - Irrelevant, since we are not interested whether Saveall loses money or not. We are interested in bankruptcy of other stores. Out

Answer C.
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Re: QOTD: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Aug 2018, 05:46
GMATNinja wrote:
The passage begins with the conclusion: "If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville."

The activist bases this conclusion on the following evidence: "Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district."

Sure, this doesn't PROVE that the same thing will happen in Morganville. However, the evidence seems to suggest that if Morganville opens a SaveAll on the outskirts of town, then we would expect more than a quarter of the stores in the central shopping district to experience bankruptcy within five years.

According to the author, these bankruptcies would indicate that the central shopping district is no longer healthy (here "healthy" means "flourishing" or "prospering"). The author believes that this effect can be avoided if the town prevents the SaveAll from opening.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

Quote:
A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?

Perhaps community activists have thwarted the opening of SaveAll stores in other towns. So what? Maybe if we knew that the bankruptcy rates were LOWER in those towns, then we would have information relevant to the argument.

But simply knowing the answer to (A) doesn't help us evaluate the author's logic. Regardless of the answer, the author would still be concerned about the evidence from the towns in which a SaveAll DID open. (A) is irrelevant and can be eliminated.

Quote:
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

We don't care whether residents do all, most, some, or very little of their shopping at stores in Morganville. Whatever the percentage, we would simply want to know whether that percentage will CHANGE if a SaveAll is opened.

Knowing whether the percentage will increase or decrease in Morganville's shopping district would certainly be useful, but simply knowing the current percentage would not help us evaluate the argument. Eliminate (B).

Quote:
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

Let's say we find out that roughly a quarter of stores in a HEALTHY central shopping district suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period. This would be evidence that losing a quarter of the stores to bankruptcy is NOT a sign that a shopping district is "unhealthy". In that case, the records from the other towns would simply show that, DESPITE having a SaveAll, the shopping districts maintained healthy bankruptcy rates.

So, the fact that a quarter of stores in Morganville's central shopping district will likely experience bankruptcy is no cause for alarm. This is what we would expect in ANY healthy central shopping district. So, based on the evidence, there is no reason to expect that opening a SaveAll will negatively affect the health of the central shopping district.

Answering this question would certainly be useful in evaluating the argument, so hang on to (C).

Quote:
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?

We don't care about the staff at the SaveAll. The argument is not related to employment/unemployment stats. Maybe most of the employees are from Morganville and maybe not. Either way, will opening a SaveAll cause an unhealthy level of bankruptcies? (D) does not help us evaluate the argument, so eliminate this one.

Quote:
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

Maybe they do and maybe they don't. In either case, the SaveAll stores could negatively affect business in the central shopping districts and cause bankruptcies within five years. (E) is irrelevant and can be eliminated.

(C) is the best answer.
GMATNinja :

My interpretation for option B:
Currently means 'at Present'
If higher percentage of people are shopping at Mv, then there would be more impact.
If lower percentage of people are shopping at Mv, then less impact.

This option B gives good variance test.

Understanding of Option C :

It only talks about healthy central shopping. So, out of scope.

Please throw some more light on option B and C.

I am not clear with the explaination.

Could you please help understand how do one avoid marking incorrect answers to such questions in Exam.

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Re: QOTD: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Aug 2018, 13:53
achandak wrote:
GMATNinja:

My interpretation for option B:
Currently means 'at Present'
If higher percentage of people are shopping at Mv, then there would be more impact.
If lower percentage of people are shopping at Mv, then less impact.

This option B gives good variance test.

Generally speaking, critical reasoning demands logical thinking, not statistical analyses. With very rare exceptions, if you're doing math on CR, odds are good that you're barking up the wrong tree.

In this case, let's stay focused on the conclusion we're asked to evaluate: whether preventing the opening of SaveAll will keep the central shopping district healthy.

Here's (B) again:

Quote:
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

If we are given this percentage at present, we still lack any information about whether that percentage will go up or down:

  • If we the present percentage is high, we still have no idea whether the percentage will stay high after SaveAll opens.
  • If we the present percentage is low, we still have no idea if the percentage will stay low after SaveAll opens.

Knowing the current percentage doesn't help us determine whether preventing SaveAll from opening will keep the central district "healthy". That's why we eliminate (B).

achandak wrote:
Understanding of Option C :

It only talks about healthy central shopping. So, out of scope.

Quote:
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

Again, the conclusion of this argument is: "If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville."

Morganville is a town with a healthy central shopping district, and the health of this central shopping district is exactly what we care about, so the information presented in (C) is very much in scope. Choice (C) is the only one that would lead us to more information about bankruptcy in central shopping districts (including Morganville's).

Once we have this information, we'll better understand what frequency of bankruptcy to expect in any healthy shopping district. We'll also better understand whether the opening of SaveAlls had anything to do with deeming a central shopping district to be unhealthy. For these reasons, (C) is the best answer choice available.

I hope this helps!
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