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# Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last

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Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last  [#permalink]

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04 Dec 2019, 09:09
3
00:00

Difficulty:

75% (hard)

Question Stats:

42% (01:45) correct 58% (01:42) wrong based on 81 sessions

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Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last year you predicted that this country’s economy would soon go into recession if current economic policies were not changed. Instead, economic growth is even stronger this year.

Economist: There was nothing at all bumbling about my warning. Indeed, it convinced the country’s leaders to change economic policies, which is what prevented a recession.

The economist responds to the critic by

(A) indicating that the state of affairs on which the economist’s prediction was conditioned did not obtain

(B) distinguishing between a prediction that has not yet turned out to be correct and one that has turned out to be incorrect

(C) attempting to show that the critic’s statements are mutually inconsistent

(D) offering a particular counterexample to a general claim asserted by the critic

(E) offering evidence against one of the critic’s factual premises
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Re: Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last  [#permalink]

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06 Dec 2019, 13:06
Would like to see an official explanation
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Re: Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last  [#permalink]

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07 Dec 2019, 00:18
how can it be A? Any explanation pls??
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Re: Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last  [#permalink]

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07 Dec 2019, 06:03
Hea234ven wrote:
how can it be A? Any explanation pls??

Hea234ven

So, the economist predicted that IF economic policies were not changed, the country would go into a recession. The critic is making fun of him because the country did not go into a recession.

But wait a minute--the economist was only saying this would happen if policies weren't changed. Wouldn't it be helpful to know whether the government changed the policies before we decide whether his prediction was correct?

That's basically what the economist's response is getting at. He's saying, "Listen fool, the policies were changed, so it makes sense that there was no recession. I was only saying that would happen if things stayed the same."

And answer (A) describes this nicely. The economist's prediction was about what would happen if a certain state of affairs -- namely, the policies staying the same -- took place. But that state of affairs did not take place (or "obtain"), which is why the predicted results didn't happen.

(B) is out because it's not a question of waiting for the prediction to come true; the policies were changed, so it's not even relevant.

(C) is incorrect because the economist is not saying the critic's statements are inconsistent with each other. He's just saying they're wrong.

(D) is out because, no counterexample.

(E) is out because there's no competing factual evidence.

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Re: Critic to economist: In yet another of your bumbling forecasts, last   [#permalink] 07 Dec 2019, 06:03
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