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Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken

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Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Oct 2018, 23:34
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Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 18 Oct 2018, 02:02
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PriyankaPalit7 wrote:
Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.


Expert's Prediction: the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline

Experts' Proposal: expand educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

We have to weaken the proposal. Something that says that expanding these opportunities will not being about an earlier and smaller peak.

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

Does not weaken the proposal. The proposal was made before just shows that it makes sense.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

The prediction is that the peak will be reached in the middle of the century. If this prediction is based on realistic assessment of opportunities that can be made available, it is unlikely that the opportunities can be expanded faster than what has been assumed to make the prediction. Hence, it is unlikely that the proposal of an earlier peak will succeed because it is not realistic. Correct.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

Number of children is not discussed in the argument. Fewer than before is the aim. This is a given premise - "It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children."

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

Irrelevant. Aim is an earlier and smaller peak. Why it is the aim is not relevant to our argument.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

Though true, it doesn't weaken our proposal. It just provides all the more reason for the implementation of the proposal.

Answer (B)
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 18 Oct 2018, 01:08
Can someone confirm if the OA is right.
If in fact the experts assessment is based on realistic assessments, wouldn't that be in favor of the argument?

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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 18 Oct 2018, 01:22
prabhath.y@gmail.com wrote:
Can someone confirm if the OA is right.
If in fact the experts assessment is based on realistic assessments, wouldn't that be in favor of the argument?

Posted from my mobile device


This is the explanation I found. I do not understand how option B is right. I reached this answer through PoE.

Answer: B
Explanation: This is a weaken question. The experts' proposal involves expanding opportunities for women so that affected women will have fewer children, thus limiting the size of the population peak that the same experts have predicted. We're looking for a choice that suggests that the proposal will not limit the size of the peak or cause it to occur earlier. Consider each one:

(A) This is irrelevant. If the proposal 20 years ago was not followed (and we don't know whether it was or not) the fact that it was made doesn't tell us whether it would be effective or not today.

(B) This is correct. The proposal is based on the assumption that greater opportunities could be arranged for women in developing countries. If the maximum possible opportunities are already present, and have been built into the prediction, the proposal will not bring about any changes in the population peak.

(C) The argument is concerned primarily with developing countries, not industrialized countries.

(D) It doesn't matter whether the goal is desirable; the question is concerned with whether the goal will be attained.

(E) This is outside of the scope. It may be true, but it doesn't bear on whether the proposal will have the desired effect.
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Oct 2018, 04:30
VeritasKarishma wrote:
PriyankaPalit7 wrote:
Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.


Expert's Prediction: the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline

Experts' Proposal: expand educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

We have to weaken the proposal. Something that says that expanding these opportunities will not being about an earlier and smaller peak.

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

Does not weaken the proposal. The proposal was made before just shows that it makes sense.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

The prediction is that the peak will be reached in the middle of the century. If this prediction is based on realistic assessment of opportunities that can be made available, it is unlikely that the opportunities can be expanded faster than what has been assumed to make the prediction. Hence, it is unlikely that the proposal of an earlier peak will succeed because it is not realistic. Correct.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

Number of children is not discussed in the argument. Fewer than before is the aim. This is a given premise - "It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children."

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

Irrelevant. Aim is an earlier and smaller peak. Why it is the aim is not relevant to our argument.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

Though true, it doesn't weaken our proposal. It just provides all the more reason for the implementation of the proposal.

Answer (B)




Hello Karishma

i have few doubts regarding the OA, if possible can you please clarify my doubts
1. Option B says the estimates are realistic, so if estimates are realistic then by providing additional infrastructure desired result can be obtained in a lesser time.
2. Option C says women in industrial counties are having 4 or more children means that population is double the replacement level, so even if the expert is able to achieve the desired result in developing countries even than results will be counterbalanced by high birth rate in developed countries so net result would be zero or negative.
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Oct 2018, 05:02
I am still confused with answer B. Is answer B saying that the prediction will reach way before middle of this century or afterwords. Wouldn't realistic assessment forecast a more exact time of prediction as opposed to unrealistic assessments.
The time line of events is not clear to me. I am assuming the other ones are much worse that is why B is correct.
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Oct 2018, 01:28
Can anyone please explain why option B is correct?

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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Oct 2018, 02:59
VeritasKarishma wrote:
PriyankaPalit7 wrote:
Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.


Expert's Prediction: the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline

Experts' Proposal: expand educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

We have to weaken the proposal. Something that says that expanding these opportunities will not being about an earlier and smaller peak.

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

Does not weaken the proposal. The proposal was made before just shows that it makes sense.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

The prediction is that the peak will be reached in the middle of the century. If this prediction is based on realistic assessment of opportunities that can be made available, it is unlikely that the opportunities can be expanded faster than what has been assumed to make the prediction. Hence, it is unlikely that the proposal of an earlier peak will succeed because it is not realistic. Correct.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

Number of children is not discussed in the argument. Fewer than before is the aim. This is a given premise - "It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children."

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

Irrelevant. Aim is an earlier and smaller peak. Why it is the aim is not relevant to our argument.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

Though true, it doesn't weaken our proposal. It just provides all the more reason for the implementation of the proposal.

Answer (B)



Hello Karishma, Could you please explain what exactly is option B trying to say?
i could not understand the meaning of B and how it relates to argument. also could yu plz elabprate further on option C !
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Oct 2018, 21:12
4SL wrote:
VeritasKarishma wrote:
PriyankaPalit7 wrote:
Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.


Expert's Prediction: the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline

Experts' Proposal: expand educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

We have to weaken the proposal. Something that says that expanding these opportunities will not being about an earlier and smaller peak.

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

Does not weaken the proposal. The proposal was made before just shows that it makes sense.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

The prediction is that the peak will be reached in the middle of the century. If this prediction is based on realistic assessment of opportunities that can be made available, it is unlikely that the opportunities can be expanded faster than what has been assumed to make the prediction. Hence, it is unlikely that the proposal of an earlier peak will succeed because it is not realistic. Correct.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

Number of children is not discussed in the argument. Fewer than before is the aim. This is a given premise - "It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children."

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

Irrelevant. Aim is an earlier and smaller peak. Why it is the aim is not relevant to our argument.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

Though true, it doesn't weaken our proposal. It just provides all the more reason for the implementation of the proposal.

Answer (B)




Hello Karishma

i have few doubts regarding the OA, if possible can you please clarify my doubts
1. Option B says the estimates are realistic, so if estimates are realistic then by providing additional infrastructure desired result can be obtained in a lesser time.
2. Option C says women in industrial counties are having 4 or more children means that population is double the replacement level, so even if the expert is able to achieve the desired result in developing countries even than results will be counterbalanced by high birth rate in developed countries so net result would be zero or negative.



Note the language of option (B): "realistic assessments ... that can be made available"
The prediction is based on realistic assessment of what CAN BE MADE available. So if realistic assessment says that 100 new schools can be opened, how will you open 200 new schools? 200 is not a realistic number. 100 is the realistic number. If the prediction of mid of the century is based on realistic assessments, any sooner is not realistic. You cannot provide more additional infra since it is not possible in real life.

In option (C), we cannot judge whether "4 or more children" is a problem. Many women may choose to have 4 or more children in industrialised countries but many may choose to have none. The argument tells us "Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries." Apparently, many women choosing to have 4 or more children in industrialised countries is not leading much to population growth, perhaps because many others have 1 or none in those countries. Our argument is concerned with developing countries only so we don't need to worry about exactly what is up in industrialised countries.
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Oct 2018, 21:14
AdityaHongunti wrote:
VeritasKarishma wrote:
PriyankaPalit7 wrote:
Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.


Expert's Prediction: the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline

Experts' Proposal: expand educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

We have to weaken the proposal. Something that says that expanding these opportunities will not being about an earlier and smaller peak.

(A) The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.

Does not weaken the proposal. The proposal was made before just shows that it makes sense.

(B) The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.

The prediction is that the peak will be reached in the middle of the century. If this prediction is based on realistic assessment of opportunities that can be made available, it is unlikely that the opportunities can be expanded faster than what has been assumed to make the prediction. Hence, it is unlikely that the proposal of an earlier peak will succeed because it is not realistic. Correct.

(C) Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.

Number of children is not discussed in the argument. Fewer than before is the aim. This is a given premise - "It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children."

(D) The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.

Irrelevant. Aim is an earlier and smaller peak. Why it is the aim is not relevant to our argument.

(E) Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

Though true, it doesn't weaken our proposal. It just provides all the more reason for the implementation of the proposal.

Answer (B)



Hello Karishma, Could you please explain what exactly is option B trying to say?
i could not understand the meaning of B and how it relates to argument. also could yu plz elabprate further on option C !


Hope the above comment helps you too. Let me know.
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Re: Demographic experts predict that the global human population - weaken &nbs [#permalink] 22 Oct 2018, 21:14
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