Does the school really matter for recruiting?

Based on your profile I'm guessing you want Tuck but got WL'd, are thinking about accepting Duke to stop the pain of waiting, and aren't interested in Yale, Mind if I ask why? (I know Duke and Tuck are known as consulting power houses, but Yale is no slouch)

Purely looking at supply/demand factors makes sense but doesn't paint the picture in full. MBB will not take anyone for the sake of filling a quota, so they're taking the cream of the crop and if that means being slightly under or over the expected 'quota' for the school, so be it - the determining factor as much supply/demand as it is applicant quality. My understanding of the 'quota' is that a portion of it is location driven. Yes, they have rough ideas based on history, but if the Austin office had some more space free up this year, UT Austin might see more MBB recruiting activity and place better into MBB that year.

All in all, if you're a complete gem you'll be fine at either school, and if you're not up to their standards you're toast either way. As you're purely looking to better your odds: both have the capacity to polish what your existing skills/framework and prepare you, but the tightness of the Tuck network and clout of it's name (potentially colouring a recruiters initial perception of you) is worth something. MBB's are prestige shops and while Duke is a strong brand, Tuck is stronger in this space.

Neither place purely regionally but geography should be another consideration. It's easier to get into the Boston office through Tuck, and likely easier to get into Charlotte/southern offices through Duke.