Quote:
Each increase of 1 percent in real disposable personal income per capita will increase the share of the electorate for an incumbent by about 2.2 percentage points, other things being equal. Since 1952 there has been a decline in real disposable income during only one presidential election year. The incumbent lost that election.
Which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn from the statements above?
(A) When an incumbent runs for office, he or she is likely to win.
(B) Political parties should take care to put forth a candidate who seems prosperous.
(C) Presidential candidates should put their greatest efforts into improving their public image.
(D) Because a presidential campaign requires the expenditure of large amounts of money, it frequently impoverishes a candidate and his or her supporters.
(E) The outcome of a presidential election is substantially affected by factors other than the ideological positions of the candidates
Fact 1: Each increase of 1% in real disposable personal income per capita will increase the share of the electorate for an incumbent by about 2.2 percentage points, all else equal.
Fact 2: Since 1952 there has been a decline in real disposable income during only one presidential election year, and the incumbent lost that election.
We’re looking for an inference.
A. Not supported. In fact, the only incumbent mentioned specifically lost their reelection.
B. Not supported. No candidate personal traits are mentioned.
C. Not supported. They don’t bring up personal image at all.
D. Not supported. Nothing is said about the expenses of the candidates.
E. Supported. The % increase in real disposable income isn’t an ideological position of the candidate, but it affects the election outcome.
Best answer is E.