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Hello Experts,

Please help me solve this OG question. I could not understand the requirement of question itself.
Does correct option of A and B should complement each other ?

KarishmaB  @GMATCoachBen

Regards­­­
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Please post the official answer?
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MartyMurray
­In comparing the results of a recent annual spring census to those of the previous year, biologists observed dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y—and an overall decrease in the combined number of frogs of these species. The biologists hypothesized that this decrease was caused by the unusually cold weather between the two censuses.

The biologists have hypothesized the following:

this decrease was caused by the unusually cold weather between the two censuses

The only information we have about the frogs is the following:

From one spring census to the next there were

- dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y

- an overall decrease in the combined number of frogs of these species


So, we don't know whether the "dramatic changes" involved an increase or decrease in the case of each species, and there's no clear connection between the "unusually cold weather" and the "decrease."

In other words, so far, we have only a correlation between unsually cold weather and an overall decrease, and we know that the biologists have hypothesized that the first caused the second.

Select for A and for B the statements such that the biologists' hypothesis would have the most support if A is true and B is false. Make only two selections, one in each column.

The correct answers can work in a couple of ways.

- A and the negation of B may each on its own confirm the hypothesis.

- Alternatively, A and the negation of B may work together to confirm the hypothesis.

Reviewing the choices, we see the following:
 
Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.

This choice is interesting since it mentions cold weather and provides some confirmation that cold weather could have caused a decrease in the number of frogs of species X.

Species X has a later mating season than does Species Y.

This choice seems irrelevant to the case that the decrease was caused by cold weather.

Both Species X and Species Y are susceptible to similar contaminants.

This choice could possibly weaken the case for believing that the cold weather caused the decrease by indicating that there may have been an alternative cause, "contaminants."

So, negating this choice might strengthen the argument a little.

The number of Species X frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

This choice doesn't make any difference on its own because we already know that there was a decrease, and this choice doesn't indicate what caused the decrease.

The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

This choice doesn't make any diifference on its own because we already know that there was a decrease, and this choice doesn't indicate what caused the decrease.

So, none of the choices on its own confirms that cold weather caused the decrease. We might get a little confirmation by negating "Both Species X and Species Y are susceptible to similar contaminants," to eliminate an alternative cause, but we don't even know that there were decreases in the number of frogs of both species. 

Also, if we choose "Both Species X and Species Y are susceptible to similar contaminants," as the choice to negate, then no other choice would do much to confirm that the decrease was caused by cold weather.  After all, the only choice that mentions cold weather is "Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not," and that choice is not a very good strengthener since it indicates that one species might possibly have been affected by cold weather while the other would not have been.

So, let's see whether there's a better set of choices since those two aren't a very good set.

Considering the choices carefully, we see the following:

If "Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not," then cold weather would presumably have caused the number of frogs of species X to decrease but not the number of frogs of species Y.

So, if we negate "The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census," to create "The number of Species Y frogs DID NOT decrease from the previous spring census," we have great support for the hypothesis.

After all, in that case, since there was an overall decrease in the number of frogs of the two species, we know for sure that the number of frogs of species X DID decrease.

So,  what we have then is the following:

- There was cold weather and an overall decrease in the number of frogs of two species.

- The number of frogs of Species X, which is affected by cold weather, decreased.

- The number of frogs of Species Y, which is not affected by cold weather, did not decrease.

Accordingly, we have some solid confirmation that the cold weather is what caused the decrease because the decrease in the number of frogs occurred only in the case of the species affect by cold weather.

For A, select Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.

For B, select The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.­
Thank you for the explanation Marty.
I have a doubt- what about the fact that the question mentions that there were dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y?

Isn't the hypothesis that the cold weather caused these dramatic changes? The answer combination then says that decrease in X was caused by the weather, the number of species Y frogs did not decrease and were unaffected by the cold weather. 
I am not able to understand how the species Y condition works out. Can you please help me understand?
 
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KarishmaB

Iwillget770
Hello Experts,

Please help me solve this OG question. I could not understand the requirement of question itself.
Does correct option of A and B should complement each other ?

KarishmaB  @GMATCoachBen

Regards­
This is how I would evaluate it:

- biologists observed dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y—and an overall decrease in the combined number of frogs of these species.

Given that overall number decreased but not given whether both X and Y decreased or one decreased etc. 

Hypothesis: unusually cold weather between the two censuses

I need to provide support to the hypothesis by giving two statements - 'Statement A' and 'Inverse of Statement B.'
Reading the 5 statements stand alone, I am not sure what to pick. So I come back to statement 1 thinking that perhaps two statements together will make sense. Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.
It does talk about X being susceptible to cold and hence does support that cold weather could be the culprit. It wil make more sense if we find out that Y did not decrease. Then we know that X decreased a lot and is responsible for most of the reduction in number. We have another statement:The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.
Inverse of this would be 'number of Y did not decrease'.

Now if we put all this info together, does the hypothesis make more sense?

- Overall number of frogs decreased.
- Speices Y did not decrease (which means that X plunged)
- X is susceptible to cold but Y is not.

It does seem that the unusually cold weather could be the reason for the decrease. 

Hence these two statements are the answer. 
­
­Hi Karishma,

I understood our solution, but there's a line in the passage that there is a dramatic change in the number of both the species.
How would you account for that as the solution violates this condition. 
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­To strengthen the argument that the unusually cold weather caused the overall decline in frog populations, the ideal scenario would be:

- One species (e.g., Species X) shows a significant decrease in population and such decrease is likely to be caused by cold weather
- The other species (e.g., Species Y) maintains a stable or even increasing population.

This pattern would strongly suggest that the cold weather had a specific impact on Species X, making it the most likely cause of the decline.

By contrast, if both species experienced a decline, it could be attributed to other factors such as disease, habitat loss, or pollution.


A (True): Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.
This directly supports the hypothesis by showing a specific impact of cold weather on one species.

B (False): The number of Species Y frogs did not decrease from the previous spring census.
This indirectly supports the hypothesis by isolating the decline to Species X, which is more consistent with the cold weather theory. If both species declined, it might suggest a different cause.­
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Based on the explanation provided for the correct answer, doesn't it seem irrational that 'biologists observed dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y'

The explanation only confirms dramatic changes in the Species X and not so much in Species Y. It would be an overkill to call it 'dramatic change'
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KarishmaB MartyMurray

B = Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.
A = The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

Why A can't be #Y decreased and then B would negation (species x is not susceptible and Y is susceptible) - This combination also support the hypothesis.

can you please help to understand why this combination is not possible?
Thanks!
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Sneha2021
KarishmaB MartyMurray

B = Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.
A = The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

Why A can't be #Y decreased and then B would negation (species x is not susceptible and Y is susceptible) - This combination also support the hypothesis.

can you please help to understand why this combination is not possible?
Thanks!
If B were "species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not" then it doesn't necessarily mean the opposite. It could be that species X and Y are both not susceptible. That would mean cold weather didn't affect the frog population, which wouldn't support the hypothesis.

I hope that answered your question!
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If species X is susceptible to cold, does it mean that it will lead to reduction in their population. Can't it be possible that cold can lead to increase in population of species X. In that case, if statement 1 is true and last statement is false then we can't say that there is overall decrease in population.
On ther other hand if last statement is true, then we know that there is decrease in population of species Y and if statement 1 is false then we can say population decrease of Y may be due to cold.

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one of the easier 805 questions.
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OG Answes :

Answer Explanation:
Evaluate
Because the stem asks us to consider the
likelihood of something occurring when A is true
but B is false, we must consider both selections
together.

A and B:
The biologists hypothesized that the decrease in
the size between two censuses of the combined
population of Species X and Species Y was caused
by unusually cold weather between the two
censuses. What would support this hypothesis?
One possibility would be evidence that both
Species X and Species Y are susceptible to
unusually cold weather. Notice, however, that
this is not one of the options to choose fiom. The
closest option to this is the one stating "Species
X is susceptible to unusually cold weather,
whereas Species Y is not."'Ihis would support the
hypothesis if, but only if, it is not the case that
Species Y decreased between the two censuses
and did so for some reason other than unusually
cold weather. If that were the case, it could be that
this other reason is what caused the combined
population to decline between the two censuses and
not unusually cold weather. Thus, the hypothesis
would be supported ifit were true that Species X is
susceptible to unusually cold weather but Species Y
is not while it is false that the number of S~ecies Y
I
fiogs decreased fi-om the previous spring census(in
other words, the number of Species Y frogs either
did not change or increased).

The correct answer for A is Species X is susceptible
to unusuaally cold weather, whereas Species Y is not.
The correct answer for B is Be number of Species
Yfiogs decreasedfiom the previous spring census.
Iwillget770
­In comparing the results of a recent annual spring census to those of the previous year, biologists observed dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y—and an overall decrease in the combined number of frogs of these species. The biologists hypothesized that this decrease was caused by the unusually cold weather between the two censuses.

Select for A and for B the statements such that the biologists' hypothesis would have the most support if A is true and B is false. Make only two selections, one in each column.­

ID: 700203
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Hi Marty, Thanks for your explanation, but doesn't the question state that there was a dramatic change in both X and Y? The answer doesn't provide any confirmation for Y.
MartyMurray
­In comparing the results of a recent annual spring census to those of the previous year, biologists observed dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y—and an overall decrease in the combined number of frogs of these species. The biologists hypothesized that this decrease was caused by the unusually cold weather between the two censuses.

The biologists have hypothesized the following:

this decrease was caused by the unusually cold weather between the two censuses

The only information we have about the frogs is the following:

From one spring census to the next there were

- dramatic changes in the numbers of frogs of two species—Species X and Species Y

- an overall decrease in the combined number of frogs of these species


So, we don't know whether the "dramatic changes" involved an increase or decrease in the case of each species, and there's no clear connection between the "unusually cold weather" and the "decrease."

In other words, so far, we have only a correlation between unsually cold weather and an overall decrease, and we know that the biologists have hypothesized that the first caused the second.

Select for A and for B the statements such that the biologists' hypothesis would have the most support if A is true and B is false. Make only two selections, one in each column.

The correct answers can work in a couple of ways.

- A and the negation of B may each on its own confirm the hypothesis.

- Alternatively, A and the negation of B may work together to confirm the hypothesis.

Reviewing the choices, we see the following:

Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.

This choice is interesting since it mentions cold weather and provides some confirmation that cold weather could have caused a decrease in the number of frogs of species X.

Species X has a later mating season than does Species Y.

This choice seems irrelevant to the case that the decrease was caused by cold weather.

Both Species X and Species Y are susceptible to similar contaminants.

This choice could possibly weaken the case for believing that the cold weather caused the decrease by indicating that there may have been an alternative cause, "contaminants."

So, negating this choice might strengthen the argument a little.

The number of Species X frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

This choice doesn't make any difference on its own because we already know that there was a decrease, and this choice doesn't indicate what caused the decrease.

The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

This choice doesn't make any diifference on its own because we already know that there was a decrease, and this choice doesn't indicate what caused the decrease.

So, none of the choices on its own confirms that cold weather caused the decrease. We might get a little confirmation by negating "Both Species X and Species Y are susceptible to similar contaminants," to eliminate an alternative cause, but we don't even know that there were decreases in the number of frogs of both species.

Also, if we choose "Both Species X and Species Y are susceptible to similar contaminants," as the choice to negate, then no other choice would do much to confirm that the decrease was caused by cold weather. After all, the only choice that mentions cold weather is "Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not," and that choice is not a very good strengthener since it indicates that one species might possibly have been affected by cold weather while the other would not have been.

So, let's see whether there's a better set of choices since those two aren't a very good set.

Considering the choices carefully, we see the following:

If "Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not," then cold weather would presumably have caused the number of frogs of species X to decrease but not the number of frogs of species Y.

So, if we negate "The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census," to create "The number of Species Y frogs DID NOT decrease from the previous spring census," we have great support for the hypothesis.

After all, in that case, since there was an overall decrease in the number of frogs of the two species, we know for sure that the number of frogs of species X DID decrease.

So, what we have then is the following:

- There was cold weather and an overall decrease in the number of frogs of two species.

- The number of frogs of Species X, which is affected by cold weather, decreased.

- The number of frogs of Species Y, which is not affected by cold weather, did not decrease.

Accordingly, we have some solid confirmation that the cold weather is what caused the decrease because the decrease in the number of frogs occurred only in the case of the species affect by cold weather.

For A, select Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.

For B, select The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.­
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We don't have to provide confirmation for that, all the question asks is to select the statements that would support the hypothesis of the biologist. We don't have a lot of information on the overall situation so all we can do is best apply the data we have to the theory given.
Gourav101
Hi Marty, Thanks for your explanation, but doesn't the question state that there was a dramatic change in both X and Y? The answer doesn't provide any confirmation for Y.

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Posting this, as I fell for the trap of considering "not decrease" as 'no change' only, but it could mean an 'increase' as well.
So Y did not decrease, which could be that it may have increased, may have increased a lot (addressing the 'dramatic changes' phrase), but that increase may be less than the decrease that happened in X, which led to the overall decrease.

Also note, dramatic changes mean an increase or decrease; change could go in either direction. This is also a very important distinction one would need in CR.

Hope this helps!
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There was a flaw in the negation technique used.

If I say the following statement is false “Species X is susceptible to cold weather where Species Y is not”

It doesn’t necessarily mean that X is not susceptible to cold and Y is susceptible, the statement could be considered false even if one of the two conditions fail.

Example: Consider the following statement:

I will eat healthy today and go to the gym.

If I say that this statement is false, does it mean that I didn’t do both of those things?

Not necessarily, right? If I did go to the gym today but didn’t eat healthy, the statement still remains false.

That’s why, the first statement as False and the last statement doesn’t necessarily support the hypothesis.


Sneha2021
KarishmaB MartyMurray

B = Species X is susceptible to unusually cold weather whereas Species Y is not.
A = The number of Species Y frogs decreased from the previous spring census.

Why A can't be #Y decreased and then B would negation (species x is not susceptible and Y is susceptible) - This combination also support the hypothesis.

can you please help to understand why this combination is not possible?
Thanks!
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"The biologists hypothesized that this decrease was caused by the unusually cold weather between the two censuses" - This line from the question tells us that the cold led to the decrease in population.

rahul_ranjan
If species X is susceptible to cold, does it mean that it will lead to reduction in their population. Can't it be possible that cold can lead to increase in population of species X. In that case, if statement 1 is true and last statement is false then we can't say that there is overall decrease in population.
On ther other hand if last statement is true, then we know that there is decrease in population of species Y and if statement 1 is false then we can say population decrease of Y may be due to cold.

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