BillyZ wrote:
In Wareland last year, 16 percent of licensed drivers under 21 and 11 percent of drivers ages 21-24 were in serious accidents. By contrast, only 3 percent of licensed drivers 65 and older were involved in serious accidents. These figures clearly show that the greater experience and developed habits of caution possessed by drivers in the 65-and-older group make them far safer behind the wheel than the younger drivers are.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
(A) Drivers 65 and older do not, on average, drive very many fewer miles per year than drivers 24 and younger.
(B) Drivers 65 and older do not constitute a significantly larger percentage of licensed drivers in Wareland than drivers ages 18-24 do.
(C) Drivers 65 and older are less likely than are drivers 24 and younger to drive during weather conditions that greatly increase the risk of accidents.
(D) The difference between the accident rate of drivers under 21 and of those ages 21-24 is attributable to the greater driving experience of those in the older group.
(E) There is no age bracket for which the accident rate is lower than it is for licensed drivers 65 and older.
Solutionpassage analysis In Wareland last year, 16 percent of licensed drivers under 21 and 11 percent of drivers ages 21–24 were in serious accidents.The author gives us information about two groups of licensed drivers who were involved in serious accidents last year in Wareland.
16% of the licensed drivers under 21
11% of the licensed drivers between 21-24
By contrast, only 3 percent of licensed drivers 65 and older were involved in serious accidents.On the other hand, only 3% of licensed drivers who were 65 or more than 65 years old were involved in serious accidents.
These figures clearly show that the greater experience and developed habits of caution possessed by drivers in the 65-and-older group make them far safer behind the wheel than the younger drivers are.Conclusion: Drivers in the 65-and-older group are safer drivers than younger drivers (licensed drivers between under 21 and 24) because of their greater experience and developed habits of caution
pre-thinking Falsification questionIn what scenario will drivers in the 65-and-older group not be safer drivers than younger drivers?
Given that
Of the two groups of licensed drivers who were involved in serious accidents last year in Wareland- group 1 included 16% of the licensed drivers under 21, 11% of the licensed drivers between 21-24
group 2 comprised 3% of licensed drivers who were 65 or more than 65 years old
65-and-older group had greater experience and developed habits of caution
Thought ProcessThe author here comes to the conclusion that because 65-and older drivers have greater experience and exhibit developed habits of caution, they are safer drivers, The younger drivers are apt to be more involved in serious accidents precisely because they lack experience and are therefore less cautious drivers.
Falsification conditionWhat if there were other parameters that were applicable in case of younger drivers and not in case of older drivers when considering who is the safer driver?
We have taken into account greater experience and developed habits of caution on the part of the 65-and-older drivers.
Let us take the case of younger drivers. Let us say they are more socially active, or are currently studying or working and have to drive more than the older group who do not drive as much due to a variety of reasons like failing eye-sight, ill-health, not working anymore, etc. This then could explain why they are involved in fewer serious accidents than the younger drivers and this could break down my conclusion.
AssumptionThe 65-and-older drivers drive almost as often as or almost as much as the younger drivers do.
Answer Choice AnalysisAThis option means that 65-and-older drivers, on average, drive as many miles per year as the younger drivers (24 and younger)
This is in line with our pre-thinking (The 65-and-older drivers drive almost as often as or almost as much as the younger drivers do). The “almost as much as “phrase matches with “not very many fewer miles per year”. This option makes way for equal ‘opportunities’ for the two groups to be involved in serious accidents where, because of greater experience and caution the older group turn out to be safer.
Hence, this is the correct answer.
BThis option gives us the percentage of licensed drivers in Wareland. It says the 65-and-older do not make up a very larger percentage of licensed drivers as compared to the percentage of younger drivers (ages 18-24)
Does this option have to be true for my conclusion to be true? No.
Scenario 1-Let us say that of 100 licensed drivers, half are 65 ≥ and half 18-24
Then as per the passage 3% of half the licensed drivers will be much lower than 27% of the other half.
Scenario 2- let us say that of 100 licensed drivers, 55 are 65 ≥ and 45 are 18-24
Then as per the passage 3% of 55 the licensed drivers will be again much lower than 27% of the remaining 45.
So, this option actually weakens my argument
Hence, it cannot be the answer.
CThis option says that the 65-and-older are less likely to drive during bad weather when the risk of accidents is higher than the younger drivers.
Can we definitely say that serious accidents take place more during bad weather? It is possible that the 65-and-older group drive more in bad weather and are yet less involved in serious accidents. Similarly, the younger drivers might be involved in serious accidents even when driving in normal weather conditions. So, this option need not be true for my conclusion to be true.
Hence, this is not the answer.
DThis option tells us that the drivers under 21 have a higher accident rate than the 21-24 age group of drivers because of the latter’s greater driving experience.
We are concerned with the comparison being made between the 65-and-older group and 18-24 age group. So, this option is irrelevant to our discussion.
Hence, it is not the answer.
EThis option says that there is no age group of drivers with lower accident rates than the 65-and-older drivers.
Once again, we are concerned with the comparison being made between the 65-and-older group and 18-24 age group. So, this option is irrelevant to our discussion
Hence, not the answer.