Journalist: Scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business, particularly when new shipbuilding is surging. The Hong Kong International Convention of 2009 sets minimum standards for ship recycling, a highly polluting activity, but countries that have not ratified the convention account for two-thirds of global scrapping. Nevertheless, although shipbuilding is surging, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future.
The passage presents a scenario and states the following conclusion about the situation:
although shipbuilding is surging, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future
The passage provides no support for that prediction.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the journalist's prediction?
The correct answer must be a reason to believe that there will be a "decrease" in "the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling" "in the near future."
So, there are four key aspects of the point the correct answer must support:
- The change must be a "decrease."
- The decrease will occur "in the near future."
- The decrease is in "the total amount of pollution."
- The pollution whose total amount will decrease is "pollution generated by ship recycling."
A) Although modifying scrapyards to comply with the convention involves significant up-front costs, the ongoing cost of compliance is minimal.
This choice indicates that scrapyards will continue to comply with the convention.
In other words, it indicates that scrapyards will continue to do what they have been doing with regard to pollution.
The fact that scrapyards will continue doing what they have been does not indicate that there will be a decrease in the near future. After all, the fact that something will remain the same does not mean that a change will occur.
Eliminate.
B) Because the ships currently being built require less fuel per unit of freight, their overall environmental impact is less than the impact of the older ships.
This choice supports a conclusion about a "decrease in the total amount of pollution," but that decrease is not in the total amount of pollution "generated by ship recycling." It's a decrease in the amount of pollution ships themselves generate in burning fuel.
So, this choice supports the wrong conclusion.
Eliminate.
C) Increased worldwide production of steel has led to a significant drop in the price of the metal.
This choice is a little tricky, and I'm not sure it's fair because it doesn't make 100 percent clear that "production of steel" doesn't include production of fresh steel from recycled steel. All the same, here's what's going on with this choice.
If production of steel has led to a drop in the price of steel, then recycling steel will not be as profitable since the price of scrap steel will be lower. In that situation, it's likely that scrapyards will reduce their production of scrap steel.
So, this choice gives us reason to believe that production of scrap steel and, thus, generation of pollution by steel recycling will decrease.
Keep.
D) Scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention are free to adhere to its restrictions if they choose to.
This choice is tempting because it gives us reason to believe that some scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention may adhere to its restrictions and generate less pollution than they have in the past or than they would if the convention did not exist.
At the same time, the fact stated by this choice has been true since 2009, when the passage says the convention was created. So, this fact is not new and therefore would not be the reason for a new decrease "in the near future" in the amount of pollution generated by ship recycling.
Eliminate.
E) The price of transporting freight has fallen dramatically over the past decade.
This choice indicates that there will be a decrease in the price of transporting freight.
That information could be reason to believe that there will be a decrease in demand for ships and that therefore there will be a decrease in production of ships and thus in the amount of ship recycling that occurs.
Notice, however, that the passage says, "shipbuilding is surging." So, we know that there is not a decrease in production of ships.
So, there's no reason to believe that this choice indicates that there will be a decrease in ship recycling.
Eliminate.
Correct answer: C