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Journalist: Scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business, particularly when new shipbuilding is surging. The Hong Kong International Convention of 2009 sets minimum standards for ship recycling, a highly polluting activity, but countries that have not ratified the convention account for two-thirds of global scrapping. Nevertheless, although shipbuilding is surging, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future. 

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the journalist's prediction? 

A) Although modifying scrapyards to comply with the convention involves significant up-front costs, the ongoing cost of compliance is minimal.

Doesn’t explain why pollution will decrease. This is out


B) Because the ships currently being built require less fuel per unit of freight, their overall environmental impact is less than the impact of the older ships.

Irrelevant because the conclusion mentions pollution from specifically ship building. Not pollution from running the ship. this is out.

C) Increased worldwide production of steel has led to a significant drop in the price of the metal.

Metal is now cheaper. Assuming that metal is more available, this puts less pressure on recycling efforts. If recycling goes down, pollution goes down. This is the correct answer.

D) Scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention are free to adhere to its restrictions if they choose to.
Not relevant

E) The price of transporting freight has fallen dramatically over the past decade

What does price of transporting freight have anything to do with pollution created from recycling??


C is the correct answer

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I answered the question incorrectly here. But my logic was since two-thirds of countries have not ratified the convention and if compliance requires one-off big cost with minimal cost going forward, countries complying with the convention would increase in future, decreasing the pollution from recycling. Why is it not the case?

Thank you!
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Sk1003
­Journalist: Scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business, particularly when new shipbuilding is surging. The Hong Kong International Convention of 2009 sets minimum standards for ship recycling, a highly polluting activity, but countries that have not ratified the convention account for two-thirds of global scrapping. Nevertheless, although shipbuilding is surging, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the journalist's prediction?

A) Although modifying scrapyards to comply with the convention involves significant up-front costs, the ongoing cost of compliance is minimal.
B) Because the ships currently being built require less fuel per unit of freight, their overall environmental impact is less than the impact of the older ships.
C) Increased worldwide production of steel has led to a significant drop in the price of the metal.
D) Scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention are free to adhere to its restrictions if they choose to.
E) The price of transporting freight has fallen dramatically over the past decade.

Context:
Scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business, particularly when new shipbuilding is surging.

Opposing View:
The Hong Kong International Convention of 2009 sets minimum standards for ship recycling, a highly polluting activity, but countries that have not ratified the convention account for two-thirds of global scrapping.
Shipbuilding is surging

Conclusion: The total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future.

This option focuses on 'total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling.' The author has not given any support to this conclusion and we need to look for an option that does. Why is it expected that pollution generated by recycling will decrease in future - even though shipbuilding is surging and scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business at this time and countries who are responsible for most recycling have ignored the standards.
There has to be something that tells us that recycling activity will reduce or become less polluting.


A) Although modifying scrapyards to comply with the convention involves significant up-front costs, the ongoing cost of compliance is minimal.

Most significant countries are not complying with the convention. The cost of complying is irrelevant since the countries are not agreeing to comply in the first place and anyway, the cost is not low either. Up-front cost is high.

B) Because the ships currently being built require less fuel per unit of freight, their overall environmental impact is less than the impact of the older ships.

Our focus is 'total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling' only, not the total pollution generated by the shipping industry as a whole. Ignore.

C) Increased worldwide production of steel has led to a significant drop in the price of the metal.

I had ignored this option on first read, but when I realized nothing else makes sense, this had to be it by elimination. The argument says "scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business" not is big business. If we were given that "scrapping old freight ships for their steel is big business" then this option would have been more problematic since we would need to take it to be true that recycling will continue to be big business. But the argument says "tend to be" so it is possible that recycling will not be big business in the future due to circumstances.
Also, if the price of new steel has reduced significantly, it doesn't mean that the recycled steel has become less lucrative but it is a possibility.
Hence, overall this option is the best of the given options.

D) Scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention are free to adhere to its restrictions if they choose to.

Those countries have not ratified the convention. They may be free to choose to adhere but there is no reason to believe that they will consider it.

E) The price of transporting freight has fallen dramatically over the past decade.

Irrelevant. We are concerned about the production process of ships, not their charges for freight transportation. And even if they were to have an impact, they would suggest more recycling since lower revenue from ships means their cost would need to be reduced and hence more scrapping.

Answer (C)

Discussion on another challenging strengthen question: https://youtu.be/9o3y4Hz16es
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The journalist's prediction is that despite a surge in shipbuilding, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future. We need to find an option that strongly supports this prediction.

Let's analyze each option:

A) This talks about the cost of compliance with the convention, but doesn't directly explain why pollution from ship recycling would decrease despite more ships being built.

B) This explains that newer ships are more fuel-efficient, but it's about their operational environmental impact, not about pollution from ship recycling.

C) This might affect the economics of ship recycling, but doesn't directly explain a decrease in pollution from the recycling process itself.

D) This suggests that even non-ratifying countries might voluntarily follow the convention's standards, which could lead to less polluting recycling practices even where the convention doesn't formally apply. This directly supports the prediction of decreased pollution from ship recycling.

E) This is about freight transport economics and doesn't relate to ship recycling pollution.

The best answer is D, as it provides a direct mechanism by which pollution from ship recycling could decrease even as more ships are being built (and thus eventually recycled). If scrapyards in non-ratifying countries choose to follow the convention's standards voluntarily, this would lead to less polluting recycling practices overall.
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Hi MartyMurray,

Thank you for this explanation!

Just one doubt, however - answer choice C) suggests that the profitability of steel recycling will be lower, due to the reduced price of metal, which would thus mean that probabilistically, the quantity of recycling will decrease. However, the passage states in its premises that shipbuilding is surging, and scrapping of old freight tends to be a big business, when that happens. Are we not contradicting the premise here? If we take the implication of this choice to be that somehow, it will become less profitable, decreasing the market size of the industry, whereas the passage explicitly states otherwise
MartyMurray
­Journalist: Scrapping old freight ships for their steel tends to be big business, particularly when new shipbuilding is surging. The Hong Kong International Convention of 2009 sets minimum standards for ship recycling, a highly polluting activity, but countries that have not ratified the convention account for two-thirds of global scrapping. Nevertheless, although shipbuilding is surging, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future.

The passage presents a scenario and states the following conclusion about the situation:

although shipbuilding is surging, the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling is likely to decrease in the near future

The passage provides no support for that prediction.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the journalist's prediction?

The correct answer must be a reason to believe that there will be a "decrease" in "the total amount of pollution generated by ship recycling" "in the near future."

So, there are four key aspects of the point the correct answer must support:

- The change must be a "decrease."

- The decrease will occur "in the near future."

- The decrease is in "the total amount of pollution."

- The pollution whose total amount will decrease is "pollution generated by ship recycling."

A) Although modifying scrapyards to comply with the convention involves significant up-front costs, the ongoing cost of compliance is minimal.

This choice indicates that scrapyards will continue to comply with the convention.

In other words, it indicates that scrapyards will continue to do what they have been doing with regard to pollution.

The fact that scrapyards will continue doing what they have been does not indicate that there will be a decrease in the near future. After all, the fact that something will remain the same does not mean that a change will occur.

Eliminate.

B) Because the ships currently being built require less fuel per unit of freight, their overall environmental impact is less than the impact of the older ships.

This choice supports a conclusion about a "decrease in the total amount of pollution," but that decrease is not in the total amount of pollution "generated by ship recycling." It's a decrease in the amount of pollution ships themselves generate in burning fuel.

So, this choice supports the wrong conclusion.

Eliminate.

C) Increased worldwide production of steel has led to a significant drop in the price of the metal.

This choice is a little tricky, and I'm not sure it's fair because it doesn't make 100 percent clear that "production of steel" doesn't include production of fresh steel from recycled steel. All the same, here's what's going on with this choice.

If production of steel has led to a drop in the price of steel, then recycling steel will not be as profitable since the price of scrap steel will be lower. In that situation, it's likely that scrapyards will reduce their production of scrap steel.

So, this choice gives us reason to believe that production of scrap steel and, thus, generation of pollution by steel recycling will decrease.

Keep.

D) Scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention are free to adhere to its restrictions if they choose to.

This choice is tempting because it gives us reason to believe that some scrapyards in countries that have not ratified the convention may adhere to its restrictions and generate less pollution than they have in the past or than they would if the convention did not exist.

At the same time, the fact stated by this choice has been true since 2009, when the passage says the convention was created. So, this fact is not new and therefore would not be the reason for a new decrease "in the near future" in the amount of pollution generated by ship recycling.

Eliminate.

E) The price of transporting freight has fallen dramatically over the past decade.

This choice indicates that there will be a decrease in the price of transporting freight.

That information could be reason to believe that there will be a decrease in demand for ships and that therefore there will be a decrease in production of ships and thus in the amount of ship recycling that occurs.

Notice, however, that the passage says, "shipbuilding is surging." So, we know that there is not a decrease in production of ships.

So, there's no reason to believe that this choice indicates that there will be a decrease in ship recycling.

Eliminate.

Correct answer:
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