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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts' prediction?

(A) Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

(B) When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

(C) It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

(D) Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

(E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

Originally posted by marine on 23 Sep 2004, 17:34.
Last edited by hazelnut on 01 Oct 2017, 04:58, edited 1 time in total.
Edited the question.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Sep 2004, 00:43
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2
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
- Not useful

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
- That might have prompted the farmers to use the vaccine a long time back, why wait ? B is out.

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
- Out of scope

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
- It now enables the use of the vaccine ecnomical since you need to use it only after the climate patterns that leads to the outbreak. So farmers do not have to use it routinely, but rather, at certain times of the year.
E it is.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Apr 2008, 19:26
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Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 15:22
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I suspect we can argue about this one till the cows come home. The main assertion is : "experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?"
. Note NEXT FEW YEARS. This is why I deemed A incorrect. A does not provide any support for the next few years. A has been happening forever, so why all of a sudden in the next few years the vaccine demand will grow ? because of new research as described in E.

What is the source of this question ?


notahug wrote:
My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Aug 2012, 13:56
2
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Feb 2013, 11:02
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart.

Ok this is a fact. Outbraks can occur every 4 years as well as after 10 years

When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle.

Ok. A fact, 1000 cows will die

A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used.

The vaccine ir rarely use. Unitll now we do not know why is not used

It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little.

The vaccine has costs and is better use before an outbreak

Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

here is something that is weird: basically the argument says that the vaccine is unuseful but its use will increase over time. We need something that explain clearly THAT

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

Who carrier the outbreal is irrelevant. It doen't explain WHY there will be an increase in the use of the vaccine

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

What the other country do is not so relevant for our discrepancy

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

Production and demand is completely irrelevant here.

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

This seems to me a statistic rather a good explanation why we will use more vaccine inthe next future. Doesn't seem good as option


E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

OKKKK. A research (so something that is reliable) sayas a prediction. So if this is true (and we know that is true because we cannot disprove the information given) we will have an increase in the use of the vaccine as prevention

E is the answer
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 26 Jul 2013, 09:42
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fozzzy wrote:
Can someone provide a detailed analysis on this one. Thanks!


Vaccine's drawbacks:
I)It is too expensive
II)It is not effective until a month after vaccination

Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

What answer are we looking for? It will be something that will eliminate a current defect of the vaccine, or will be an advantage that will balance everything: like "has been found that the vaccine makes the cattle immune to every type of disease and increases its reproductivity rate"(I'm making this up).

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
Irrelevant.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
Maybe... this could be seen as an advantage to use the vaccine, because revenues for the farmers could be lower if they do not use it. We can keep it for now...
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
Irrelevant because it does not offer an argument like those described above.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
This is just a fact that has no impact on the prediction.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
This seems good as well because undermines the drawback #2. If we can predict an outbreak two months before, the vaccine (that takes one month to be effective) could be used more than today.

B and E are the contenders. I would look at the key words there to determine the correct answer.
B unaffected countries often refuse<== so the fact that B presents has already happened before, so it's not something that could change the current scenario and increase the use of the vaccine.
E. Recently published research<== this is a game changer. Recently new data has been released, so the situation described by the argument is actually changed.

E is the best answer
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Oct 2013, 10:05
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mohnish104 wrote:
I don't seem to be understanding the language used in E. What I followed was that, certain climatic condition follow 'after' the outbreak. Is it before or after I am unable to follow.


Yeah, the wording is especially designed to cause confusion :-). But option E is correct.

You would generally say
storms follow humid conditions
than
humid conditions are followed by storms. Both are correct though second one is wordy.

Option E says, identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 28 May 2015, 07:49
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts' prediction?

The reason why the vaccine is rarely used because
1) Expensive
2) Not effective till one month
3) Administrating after the outbreak doesn't add any value.

We need to find out a option which solves one of these problems.

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.-> Doesn't add any value for any of the reason.

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak -> Same issue as option A)

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand -> Doesn't add any value

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever -> Doesn't add any value

E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
-> This option gives a way to to predict that outbreak is going to occur so this option solves the problem # 3 and hence the correct answer.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Feb 2017, 06:20
shikha.lakhani wrote:
Please explain the reasonn for the answer choice and reason to eliminate other options


There are two reasons that the vaccine is not used:
1. Expensive
2. Not effective till one month of administering
The experts predict that in spite of the above two reasons, the vaccine would be used. Why?

The correct option should address any/both of the above two issues, i.e. it would suggest that the price would come down and/or that the vaccine can be administered at least one month before the onset of the outbreak.

Only Option E adresses one of these two issues, viz., the second issue. Hence E is the right answer.

(If you are unable to eliminate the other options using the logic described above, please write back again stating which other option do you think adresses one of the two issues.)
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Jun 2017, 14:10
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csaluja wrote:
Hi,

I was wondering why is D wrong?

The experts' predication is "that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years"

We know that the vaccine is exists, so why not administer the vaccine routinely to avoid infections? - because "it is too expensive for farmers to use routinely"

Why not just administer the vaccine once an outbreak starts? Doing so would help very little because the vaccine is not effective until a month after vaccination.

Given these reasons explaining why the vaccine is rarely used, why do experts predict that its use will increase significantly within the next few years?

Quote:
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

This information does not help explain why the use of the vaccine might increase significantly within the next few years, so (D) can be eliminated.

I hope this helps!
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Dec 2018, 22:59
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Conclusion: Experts predict that the use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next years?
Why isn't it heavily used now? What are the potential barriers limiting it's use?
Premise 1: It's expensive
Premise 2: It's "not effective until a month after vaccination" so is there any real use for it now if it can't be timed properly?

Pre-think - what can potentially eliminate barriers to use? Experts must know something for them to conclude the way they have.

POE
(A) Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
Irrelevant to the argument.

(B) When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
Irrelevant to the argument.

(C) It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
Careful. This is a Shell game resposne. The question maker is using details from the passage to lure you into thinking this is right.
Just because it takes <1 month to adjust production to deal with large increases in demand doesn't mean we can predict when the disease will break out. The relevance is that the disease takes 1 month to show signs of it's presence, so this question is shelling around the "1 month" detail.

(D) Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
Irrelevant fact to our argument.

(E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
Careful on the wording of this. Read is slowly.
"certain identifiable conditions are almost invariably followed...by an outbreak of rift valley fever (within 2 - 5 months)" - thus we can prevent the outbreak occuring if we know when it'll occur.

Strengthens.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 20 May 2019, 22:33
marine wrote:
Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts' prediction?

(A) Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

(B) When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

(C) It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

(D) Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

(E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.



How is Option E the correct answer ? Does it not mean that the climatic conditions happen after the outbreak ? So how can one predict ? You can predict based on the climatic conditions if the climate conditions occurred before the outbreak in that case yes the farmers could predict and give the cattle the vaccine as a precaution.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jun 2019, 02:45
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mimajit wrote:
marine wrote:
Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts' prediction?

(A) Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

(B) When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

(C) It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

(D) Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

(E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.



How is Option E the correct answer ? Does it not mean that the climatic conditions happen after the outbreak ? So how can one predict ? You can predict based on the climatic conditions if the climate conditions occurred before the outbreak in that case yes the farmers could predict and give the cattle the vaccine as a precaution.

Take another look at the exact wording of (E):
Quote:
(E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

This tells us that certain climatic conditions are followed by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever. So yes, the farmers can predict a future outbreak when these particular climatic conditions occur. And because there is a convenient two to five month gap between the climatic conditions and the potential epidemic, the farmers can administer the vaccine in time for their cattle to have immunity before the outbreak occurs.

The vaccine is "too expensive for farmers to use routinely," but with the information in answer choice (E), farmers can predict an oncoming outbreak and use the vaccine only when it is needed. This supports the experts' prediction that " use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years." (E) is the correct choice.

I hope that helps!
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jun 2019, 03:15
Hi GMATNinja - I was confused just like mimajit on the option e.

So just so I am clear this sentence " E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever." means that first the climatic conditions change and after that there is an outbreak of the fever. Right?
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Jun 2019, 02:30
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rnn wrote:
Hi GMATNinja - I was confused just like mimajit on the option e.

So just so I am clear this sentence " E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever." means that first the climatic conditions change and after that there is an outbreak of the fever. Right?

Take a look at this post and let me know if you have any further questions. :)

I hope that helps!
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever   [#permalink] 06 Jun 2019, 02:30
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