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pretzel
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My version of this topic. To get more ideas on the reasoning.

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The argument states that in the country of Spiessa, there has been high growth in the restaurant industry during the past ten years. The author concludes that the growth is expected to continue because of recent social changes. Stated in this way, the argument manipulates facts and conveys a distort meanings of the situation. It contains several flaws which will be evaluated through this essay.

To begin with, the author readily assumed that recent social changes such as rising personal income, higher leisure time, more single-person households and growing interest in gourmet food are correlated with the growth in restaurant industry. However, this is not necessarily true as no information has been provided that correlation between these changes and the restaurant industry exists. While those changes may firstly seem to be related with the industry growth, further thoughts reveal that the relationship are not always exists. To illustrate, people may spend their higher income on new technology available in the market. There is no evidence provided that they are going to spend money on food. Also, they can spend their leisure time exercising rather than eating. Similarly, single-person household can cook by themselves, and growing interest in gourmet may not contribute that much to the restaurant industry. Therefore, there is unsubstantial evidence to support the assumption in this argument. The argument could be strengthened if it had provided the information regarding correlation between recent social changes and the industry growth.

Second, the author assumes that the recent change will impact the restaurant industry in the coming years. Although there is correlation between the changes and the industry growth, this does not necessarily happen in this timeframe. For example, the effects may start immediately by increasing the industry growth to one point and stop growing, or it may take sometimes for the effect to take place in some point in the future. Without explicitly identify the evidences to this uncertainty, the argument is flawed. Further research must be conducted in order to study the effects of the social changes provided the reliable result.

Last, the author uses historical trend as another support for further growth in the future. However, this is again not necessarily true. The high growth in the past do not necessarily repeat itself in the future. For example, there may be a global economic crash in the future leading to crisis in the country. As a result of the crisis, the restaurant industry will be affected and the growth will be decreased.

The argument has several flaws as mentioned above. It fails to mention all collaborating factors to evaluate the argument. The improvement could be done by providing information regarding the correlation between the social changes and the restaurant industry growth in the country of Spiessa and the timing of the effects. Without these, the argument is supported by unsubstantial evidences and open to debate
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