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Fish181
­For each of the last 100 days at a certain factory, Light A was either on or off for that day, and likewise for Light B. Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off. Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on. In addition, for exactly 40 of the last 100 days, at least one of the lights was on, and for exactly 20 of the last 100 days, both of the lights were on.

Assume one of the last 100 days is chosen at random. Select for P(A) the probability that on the chosen day Light A was on, and select for P(B) the probability that on the chosen day Light B was on. Make only two selections, one in each column.­
We are told that the lights A and B are either ON or OFF each of the last 100 days,

If A was off, then B was off, meaning B on implies A on. Each of the different colored sentence above implies the same thing and just one would also be enough.

If B on then A on means, whenever a light is on, it has to be A, with B or without B.

­In addition, for exactly 40 of the last 100 days, at least one of the lights was on, => So A was ON for 40 days, and P(A) = 40/100 or 0.40
for exactly 20 of the last 100 days, both of the lights were on. => So, B was ON for 20 days, and P(B) = 20/100 or 0.20
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B onB off
A on2020
A off060
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What I didn't get in this question is that the question is asking about all of the last 100 days (Day 1 to Day 100), right and we are just answering it on the basis of the last 40 days (Day 60-Day 100). We dont know anything about first 60 days (Day 1 to Day 60) whether which light was on or not. I am finding it a bit confusing.
Fish181
­For each of the last 100 days at a certain factory, Light A was either on or off for that day, and likewise for Light B. Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off. Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on. In addition, for exactly 40 of the last 100 days, at least one of the lights was on, and for exactly 20 of the last 100 days, both of the lights were on.

Assume one of the last 100 days is chosen at random. Select for P(A) the probability that on the chosen day Light A was on, and select for P(B) the probability that on the chosen day Light B was on. Make only two selections, one in each column.­
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Yeah it's a bit tricky, we don't know if any lights were on during the first 60 days and don't have anyway of figuring it out. All we have guaranteed is that at least one light was on for 40 days and then both were on for 20 days. So we get 40% and 20%.
monarchme
What I didn't get in this question is that the question is asking about all of the last 100 days (Day 1 to Day 100), right and we are just answering it on the basis of the last 40 days (Day 60-Day 100). We dont know anything about first 60 days (Day 1 to Day 60) whether which light was on or not. I am finding it a bit confusing.
Fish181
­For each of the last 100 days at a certain factory, Light A was either on or off for that day, and likewise for Light B. Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off. Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on. In addition, for exactly 40 of the last 100 days, at least one of the lights was on, and for exactly 20 of the last 100 days, both of the lights were on.

Assume one of the last 100 days is chosen at random. Select for P(A) the probability that on the chosen day Light A was on, and select for P(B) the probability that on the chosen day Light B was on. Make only two selections, one in each column.­
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Let's translate the facts into counts (out of 100 days):

"At least one light was on" = 40 days.

"Both lights were on" = 20 days.

Also B on ⇒ A on (so B can never be on alone).

So the days with exactly one light on = 40 − 20 = 20 days. Because B cannot be the lone-on light, those 20 days must be A on and B off.

Therefore:

Days A was on = (both on) + (A only) = 20 + 20 = 40 → P(A) = 40/100 = 0.40.

Days B was on = (both on) = 20 → P(B) = 20/100 = 0.20.
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Summary

In a factory, lights A and B could either be ON or OFF for a particular day for each of the past 100 days. Whenever A was ON, B was also OFF. Whenever B was ON, A was also ON. For 40 of the 100 days, at least one light was ON, and for 20 out of 100 days, both lights were ON.

Solution

The key is to focus on statements that matter for answering the question. For me, the only statements that are important are:

1. Whenever B was ON, A was also ON. (This is equivalent to: If B was ON, A was also ON, i.e., B being ON is a SUFFICIENT condition for A being ON)
2. For 40 of the 100 days, at least one light was ON, and for 20 out of 100 days, both lights were ON.

Statement 1 can be represented by the attached Venn diagram that shows B being ON as a sufficient condition for A being ON. We can see that overall, A was ON for 40 days, while only A was ON for 20 days. B was ON for 20 days. Therefore, P(A) = [ 40 ][/100] = 0.4, while P(B) = [20][/100] = 0.2.
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Hey Sir,

Thanks for all of your useful help. I've seen some of your other explanations in other practice questions and they've been very helpful. I do have a question about your explanation on this one , the statements : Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off. Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on.
I dont think they mean the same thing because statement A, if B was off doesn't mean A is off, and if A is on, doesnt mean B is on, I think the trap is to believe they're the same thing. So we know when both lights are on B must be on the smaller one because the statement "Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on." But the inverse isn't true, so we know that A must be the .40 probability.
[/m]
Quote:
­For each of the last 100 days at a certain factory, Light A was either on or off for that day, and likewise for Light B. Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off. Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on. In addition, for exactly 40 of the last 100 days, at least one of the lights was on, and for exactly 20 of the last 100 days, both of the lights were on.

Assume one of the last 100 days is chosen at random. Select for P(A) the probability that on the chosen day Light A was on, and select for P(B) the probability that on the chosen day Light B was on. Make only two selections, one in each column.­


Information we are given:

100 days

Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off.

Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on.


We need to notice a few key things about the above two statements:

- They mean the same thing. After all, if B is off when A is off, then if B is on, A is on.

- They are about only when both lights are on or off.

- They indicate that, whenever B is on, both are on.

- They don't say that whenever A is on, B is on. In other words, given those statements, A can be on by itself.

for exactly 40 of the last 100 days, at least one of the lights was on

for exactly 20 of the last 100 days, both of the lights were on

This question may seem hard, but if we see some key things, answering it becomes relatively straightforward.

The keyword "exactly" in "exactly 20 days" tells us that, on 20 days and no more than 20 days, both were on.

Thus, since both are on when B is on, B could have been on only on the 20 days on which both were on.

Then, the 20 days must overlap the 40 days since, when "both of the lights are on," it's also true that "at least one of the lights was on."

Thus, since B can't be on when A is not on but there's no information indicating that A can't be on when B is not on, A must have been on on the other 20 days when B was not on, in addition to being on on the 20 days when both were on.

So, A was on for 20 + 20 = 40/100 days, and B was on for 20/100 days, and this question turned out to be more of a logic question than a math question.

0.08

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.52


Select 0.40 for P(A) and 0.20 for P(B).

Correct answer: 0.40, 0.20­
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rfrederick1211
Hey Sir,

Thanks for all of your useful help. I've seen some of your other explanations in other practice questions and they've been very helpful. I do have a question about your explanation on this one , the statements : Each day that Light A was off, Light B was also off. Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on.
I dont think they mean the same thing because statement A, if B was off doesn't mean A is off, and if A is on, doesnt mean B is on, I think the trap is to believe they're the same thing. So we know when both lights are on B must be on the smaller one because the statement "Each day that Light B was on, Light A was also on." But the inverse isn't true, so we know that A must be the .40 probability.
[/m]

Let me try clarifying a couple of things.

The two rules together mean this:

  • If A is off, then B is off.
  • If B is on, then A is on [because it’s impossible for B to be on while A is off; if A were off, the first rule would force B off].

They do not say “if B is off then A is off,” and they do not say “if A is on then B is on” beyond the second bullet above. The effect is: B can be on only when A is on, while A can be on by itself.

So the only possible daily states are the following three:

  • both on
  • A on and B off
  • both off
    (B on and A off cannot happen.)

Given 40 days with at least one on and 20 days with both on:

  • A on only = 40 - 20 = 20 days
  • A on total = 40 days, so P(A) = 0.40
  • B on total = 40 - 20 = 20 days, so P(B) = 0.20

So we have 0.40 for P(A) and 0.20 for P(B).
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I do see what you mentioned, now, my mistake, thanks for the clarification
Bunuel

Let me try clarifying a couple of things.

The two rules together mean this:

  • If A is off, then B is off.
  • If B is on, then A is on [because it’s impossible for B to be on while A is off; if A were off, the first rule would force B off].

They do not say “if B is off then A is off,” and they do not say “if A is on then B is on” beyond the second bullet above. The effect is: B can be on only when A is on, while A can be on by itself.

So the only possible daily states are the following three:

  • both on
  • A on and B off
  • both off
    (B on and A off cannot happen.)

Given 40 days with at least one on and 20 days with both on:

  • A on only = 40 - 20 = 20 days
  • A on total = 40 days, so P(A) = 0.40
  • B on total = 40 - 20 = 20 days, so P(B) = 0.20

So we have 0.40 for P(A) and 0.20 for P(B).
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