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# Prediction

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Senior Manager
Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Posts: 419

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01 Sep 2008, 08:59
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
TEST 1

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Manager
Joined: 12 Jun 2008
Posts: 58

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01 Sep 2008, 09:03
In my opinion E
Intern
Joined: 17 Aug 2008
Posts: 19

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01 Sep 2008, 09:24
I believe it is C...
Director
Joined: 25 Oct 2006
Posts: 587

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01 Sep 2008, 10:28
IMO D
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Intern
Joined: 03 Mar 2008
Posts: 44

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01 Sep 2008, 13:34
Nihit wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
TEST 1

IMO D

I think the key is the last statement of the passage '.......On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.' This shows that there are various alternatives and predicting the effection v/s ineffective action is not easy.

I didn't like the word 'impossible' in the statement D, however considering other statements, I shall go with D

OA ?
Intern
Joined: 26 Aug 2008
Posts: 20

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02 Sep 2008, 13:59
Agree D is the best choice sans the usage of impossible which is however used in the context often.
Retired Moderator
Joined: 18 Jul 2008
Posts: 893

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02 Sep 2008, 15:21
Tough Question. My vote on E here.

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Re: Prediction &nbs [#permalink] 02 Sep 2008, 15:21
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# Prediction

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