Rose: The book is either by Deerson or else by Jones; Im not sure whi

Rose: The book is either by Deerson or else by Jones; I’m not sure which. However, Deerson’s books are generally published by Quince Press, as are Jones’s. Therefore, the book is probably published by Quince.

So the argument is of the pattern " An item is by X or Y and Both X and Y have a common factor. Hence the item also has a common factor.
Lets see which one matches

The pattern of reasoning in which one of the following is most similar to that in Rose’s argument?

(A) That tree is either a beech or else an elm, and Mercedes can identify most trees, so she will probably be able to tell which it is. Incorrect : No common factor in beech or elm : Pattern not followed

(B) The culprits escaped either by car or else on foot, but in either case they must have opened Isidore’s creaking gate. Therefore Isidore probably heard them. Incorrect : We can conclude that the culprit opened the gates but not the Isidore probably heard them: Pattern not followed

(C) Judging by what he said in the interview, George is either a liar or incredibly naive. Both these attributes are unsuitable in a customs inspector. Therefore George should not be hired as a customs inspector. Incorrect : No recommendation in the actual argument : Pattern not followed

(D) Margarethe the Second was born either in Luppingshavn or else in Kindelberg. Most of the people in each city then were of Mondarian descent, so Margarethe probably had Mondarian ancestors. Correct : Follows the same pattern as the question : here X and Y are born in Luppingshavn and Kindelberg respectively and common factor is "Mondarian descent"

(E) Tomas will probably participate in community service, since he will attend either Dunkeld College or Steventon University and at both most students currently enrolled say that they participate in some form of community service. Incorrect : No future prediction made in original argument : Pattern not followed

IMO D is correct

Rose: The book is either by Deerson or else by Jones; I’m not sure which. However, Deerson’s books are generally published by Quince Press, as are Jones’s. Therefore, the book is probably published by Quince.

The pattern of reasoning in which one of the following is most similar to that in Rose’s argument?

(A) That tree is either a beech or else an elm, and Mercedes can identify most trees, so she will probably be able to tell which it is.
the conclusion can not be identified to one point. the conclusion still remain open
X or Y ---> X or Y

(B) The culprits escaped either by car or else on foot, but in either case they must have opened Isidore’s creaking gate. Therefore Isidore probably heard them.
gap between heard and open gate

(C) Judging by what he said in the interview, George is either a liar or incredibly naive. Both these attributes are unsuitable in a customs inspector. Therefore George should not be hired as a customs inspector.
it seems a conclusion with customs inspector

(D) Margarethe the Second was born either in Luppingshavn or else in Kindelberg. Most of the people in each city then were of Mondarian descent, so Margarethe probably had Mondarian ancestors.
X or Y -->Z ..Hence probably Z

(E) Tomas will probably participate in community service, since he will attend either Dunkeld College or Steventon University and at both most students currently enrolled say that they participate in some form of community service.

D is the most correct option

Rose: The book is either by Deerson or else by Jones; I’m not sure which. However, Deerson’s books are generally published by Quince Press, as are Jones’s. Therefore, the book is probably published by Quince.

The pattern of reasoning here seems to be on the following line:

The book (X) is either by Deerson (Y) or by Jones (Z). Deerson's (Y) and Jones's (Z) books are generally published by Quince Press (W). Therefore the book (X) is probably published by Quince Press (W).

Abstracting this: X can be attributed to Y or Z; Y and Z generally happen due to W; hence X implies W

The pattern of reasoning in which one of the following is most similar to that in Rose’s argument?

(A) That tree is either a beech or else an elm, and Mercedes can identify most trees, so she will probably be able to tell which it is.

Tree (X) is either a beech (Y) or an elm (Z). Mercedes (W) can identify most trees. The rest of the logic does not follow: Y and Z being tied to W and hence X implying W.

(B) The culprits escaped either by car or else on foot, but in either case they must have opened Isidore’s creaking gate. Therefore Isidore probably heard them.

Culprits (X) escaped either by car (Y) or by foot (Z). They must have done so by opening Isidore's creaking gate (W). The parallelism breaks down by being definitive. We need Y and Z to probably imply W not be definitive. Also, the last sentence should connect the culprits to Isidore (X implies Y) and not Y to X.

(C) Judging by what he said in the interview, George is either a liar or incredibly naive. Both these attributes are unsuitable in a customs inspector. Therefore George should not be hired as a customs inspector.
George (X) is a liar (Y) or naive (Z). Y and Z are unsuitable for a customs inspector (W). Parallel thus far but hence X should not be W breaks the parallelism which should be X implies W; here it says that X does not imply W.


(D) Margarethe the Second was born either in Luppingshavn or else in Kindelberg. Most of the people in each city then were of Mondarian descent, so Margarethe probably had Mondarian ancestors.
Margarethe (X) was born either in X or in Y. Most of X or Y mean Mondarian descent (W) (this is not definitive as in the first example) and hence X probably had W. Seems fully parallel to the example in the question.

(E) Tomas will probably participate in community service, since he will attend either Dunkeld College or Steventon University and at both most students currently enrolled say that they participate in some form of community service.
Tomas (X) will attend Y or Z. Most of Y and Z participate in community service (W). X probably means some form of W as opposed to W itself; also the words 'will' and 'probably' seem contradictory. If it had said 'probably' only, that would have been closer.

I think it is D.

Official Explanation

Rose’s conclusion is that Quince Press probably published a particular book. All choices but (C) contain a similar (i.e. “statement of probability”) conclusion; (C)’s conclusion is a negative recommendation (“George shouldn’t be hired”), so we can toss it out forthwith.

Now: What’s the evidence for the ID of this book as the probable product of Quince? Just that whichever of two authors wrote it, most of his or her books were published by Quince. The right answer—the parallel argument—needs to contain this same assessment of probability: Whichever of two alternatives applies, the
majority would suggest one outcome. And that’s (D) to a tee, isn’t it? We don’t know in which town Margarethe II was born. But just as most of Deerson’s and Jones’s books came from Quince, most people in the two towns were of Mondarian ancestry. Either way, same outcome.

(A) There’s no parallel in the stimulus to Mercedes’s stepping in with her expertise to settle a controversy one way or the other. In the stimulus, “Deerson or Jones?” doesn’t matter; in (A), “beech or elm?” is the central question.

(B) lacks the concept of “majority” that’s so central to the stimulus and to (D). The element common to a car escape or foot escape—the opening of the gate—is specific, leading to a specific assessment of what one man probably heard.

(E) looks mighty tempting. But the students at the two universities only “say” they participate in community service, while the author concludes that Tomas will do so. If (E)’s conclusion were “Tomas will probably say he participates in community service,” it’d be parallel. But then we’d have two right answers, and that’s never the case!

Answer: D­

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