The Commerce Department recently put limits on machine-tool imports fr

Question

The Commerce Department recently put limits on machine-tool imports from two countries whose exports of machine tools into the United States have been substantial. As a result of these restrictions, analysts predict that domestic sales of machine tools manufactured in the United States are bound to rise considerably, starting in the very near future.

Which of the following, if true, would be most likely to cause the analysts’ prediction to be inaccurate?

(A) A new tax bill that, if passed, would discourage investment in capital equipment such as machine tools is being studied and debated seriously in the United States Congress.

(B) United States companies’ orders for metal-cutting machines, which account for 75 percent of sales by the machine-tool industry, rose faster than orders for other types of machine tools during the past year.

(C) Worldwide orders for machine tools made in the United States dropped by more than 10 percent during the past year.

(D) Substantial inventories of foreign-made machine tools were stockpiled in the United States during the past year.

(E) Companies in the industrial sectors of many countries showed a significantly expanded demand for machine tools during the past year.

ShankSouljaBoi · Answer

Between A and D i'll go with D.  A implies that the bill may be passed next year, or in two years 
(we dont know).

However D has meaning issues, probably the author is not so well versed with the usage of word  inventory .
Inventory could mean Raw material used to manufacture the final product i.e. Machine tools 
,or inventory could mean hoarding of the final machine tools as a product. 
 
In the second case, the option choice weakens the conclusion by showing that in the near future previous inventories on the shelf of woleseller's or retailer's would be of Foreign companies.

lostin · Answer

IMHO - option D clearly says - Substantial inventories of  foreign-made machine tools . I don't see any ambiguity in the option.

Fdambro294 · Answer

I’m in agreement with the above poster.

“Substantial inventories of foreign made machine tools were stockpiled in the US.”

The analyst is assuming that because fewer foreign machine tools will be imported from these 2 countries, the domestic producers of machine tools will essentially “fill in” the opening in the market.

If D is true, there could be stockpiled foreign machine tools that could make it less likely that domestic producers will actually have this “opening” in the first place. People may continue to buy the foreign machine tools that are sitting in inventory.

Again, we are looking for the best answer that weakens the likelihood that the domestic producers will sell more at home in the near future.

(A) discusses a bill that may or may not be passed at some indeterminate point in time.

The fact provided by (D) seems to most weaken the prediction that domestic U.S. producers will sell more machine tools at home in the near future.

Also notice that the last sentence begins with “as a result of these restrictions.”

Thus, the prediction is not simply that the domestic producers will sell more machine tools at home. The prediction is that this fact will occur AS A RESULT OF the import restrictions placed on the two foreign countries.

If there are substantial foreign inventories built up in the U.S., it seems less likely that the import restrictions will have the effect of an increase in domestic producer sales.

Posted from my mobile device

Jhanvi04 · Answer

Can you please tell why open D and not A

WhitEngagePrep · Answer

I strongly agree with the logic of the above posters, so if there is a specific issue or point of confusion with those explanations, it would be super helpful to point that out. That said, we can break down the argument again! The Commerce Department recently put limits on machine-tool imports from two countries whose exports of machine tools into the United States have been substantial. (sounds like US companies who buy these parts won't be able to get as many from these countries going forward). As a result of these restrictions, analysts predict that domestic sales of machine tools manufactured in the United States are bound to rise considerably, starting in the very near future. ( Conclusion: if companies cannot buy from these two countries, then they will start buying more from US-based companies in the very near future). Q: What would weaken this conclusion? First, take a moment to think what it means to weaken. In this case, to weaken would be to show that just because companies can't buy these machine tools from these two other countries, they must start buying them from US-based companies in their place. We could weaken this with anything that shows that these companies wouldn't start filling the gaps with US-based companies. Maybe they would get from countries that aren't those two. Maybe they just won't buy as many parts anymore at all. Maybe there's another possible cause. So let's look first at (A). (A) A new tax bill that, if passed, would discourage investment in capital equipment such as machine tools is being studied and debated seriously in the United States Congress. Tempting. It might be that IF this bill passes, there won't be as much US-based interest in buying these machine tools. However, that's a BIG IF. It is being studied and debated, but nothing implies that it has any chance at all in passing. At best this is a weak worry, but a little too weak to actually stand as a true "weaken" answer choice. But if there was nothing better, maybe I'd pick it. Now let's see (D). (D) Substantial inventories of foreign-made machine tools were stockpiled in the United States during the past year. This answer choice implies that US companies might have more than enough stock that they've stockpiled to not need to replace their purchasing source for a while, or at least not in the VERY near future as implied by the argument. This would absolutely be a reason to doubt that we'll see companies start increasing their buying from US-based machine tool suppliers and so this is a much stronger weakener for the argument. Hope this helps!

Whit

svsivakrishna · Answer

Given: Restrictions have been put on the import of machine tools from two countries from where there have been substantial imports into the US

Conclusion: Domestic sale of machine tools rises considerably

To Weaken:

Choice A: States about a new tax bill on capital investment being studied and debated.  Not implemented.  Hence incorrect

Choice B: Orders for metal cutting machines rose more compared to other machines.  Irrelevant, since we are concerned about rise in sale of domestically made machine tools. Hence incorrect

Choice C: World wide orders dropped more than 10%.  Doesnt concern because we need to establish link betwen cause of ban in imports leading to rise in sale of domestically made machine tools. Hence incorrect

Choice D: Substantial inventories of foreign made machine tools are stock piled.  This means that there is possibility for sale of foreign made machine tools instead of domestically made machine tools which acutally weakens the conculsion and states that ban doesnt necessarily mean the rise in sale of domestically made machine tools.  Correct.

Choice E:Companies in the industrial sectors of many countries showed a significantly expanded demand for machine tools during the past year.  We dont know whether the demand for machine tools implies that they are US made machine tools, and even if they are, the statement might strengthen instead of weakening the conclusion . Incorrect.

Choice D is correct.

AbhishekP220108 · Answer

Here is how I would break this down if we were solving it together.
This is a Weaken question. We need to find a reason why the analyst's prediction (that US sales will boom) will fail.
The Logic of the Analyst:
 * Event: We blocked the competition (Foreign Imports).
 * Assumption: Customers still need tools, so they will immediately switch to buying from us (US Manufacturers).
 * Prediction: US sales go up "in the very near future."
To weaken this, we need to find a "Loophole" in the supply chain. Why wouldn't customers buy American right away?
The correct answer is (D).
Why (D) kills the prediction
> (D) Substantial inventories of foreign-made machine tools were stockpiled in the United States during the past year.
> 
The Visualization:
Imagine a dam. The government built a wall to stop new water (imports) from flowing in. The analyst thinks, "Great, now people will have to drink from the local well (US factories)."
But Option (D) points out that there is already a massive lake of water (stockpile) sitting inside the wall.
 * The Reality: When customers realize imports are banned, they won't call a US factory. They will just buy the foreign tools that are already sitting in warehouses in the US.
 * The Result: US manufacturers won't see a dime of new sales until that stockpile runs out. Since the prediction claimed sales would rise "in the very near future," this delay proves the analyst wrong.
Why (A) is the dangerous trap
> (A) A new tax bill that, if passed, would discourage investment in capital equipment... is being studied and debated...
> 
This looks tempting because if demand drops, sales drop. But look at the language:
 * "If passed"
 * "Being studied and debated"
This is speculative. Maybe the bill passes, maybe it dies. Maybe it passes in 2 years. In GMAT Critical Reasoning, a concrete fact (we have a stockpile right now - Option D) always beats a possibility (we might pass a bill - Option A).
Why the others are wrong
 * (B) Orders rose: This suggests demand is high, which actually strengthens the idea that sales will go up.
 * (C) Worldwide orders dropped: This talks about Exports (rest of the world buying US tools). The prediction is specifically about Domestic Sales (US buying US).
 * (E) Demand expanded: Again, high demand usually strengthens the prediction that sales will rise.
Summary: The analyst assumed a Just-In-Time market (Stop imports ....Immediate shortage). Option (D) reveals it's an Inventory-Heavy market (Stop imports.... Burn through stockpile first).

The Commerce Department recently put limits on machine-tool imports fr

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The Commerce Department recently put limits on machine-tool imports fr

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