People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse

Question

People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by observing how often and how prominently it comes to their attention. Over the past few years, not only have more lotteries been established but there have also been more advertisements featuring the winners of such lotteries.

If the statements above are true, which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn?

A. Those who run lotteries are trying to coerce consumers into buying tickets.

B. Those who buy lottery tickets tend to notice advertisements for lotteries more than those who do not buy tickets.

C. Lottery-ticket buyers may overestimate their chances of winning.

D. Misinformed people should not be allowed to make decisions.

E. Advertisements are the most common source from which people learn about lotteries.

ErikLewe · Answer

1: More observations--> higher percieved likely
2: More lottery wins --> percieved higher chance of winning.
3: POE A, D, E
4. C is in favor over B as it concludes better

Darshi04 · Answer

Can someone please explain the thought process behind elimination of A and B, and why C is preferred over A and B?

yash312 · Answer

Crux of passage is : People keep an account of thing happening on the basis of observing how frequent and how strongly it appears infront of them
Than an example of lottery

A: Can be true ,but it can also be not true because it is no where given in passage that lottery guys coerce their customers...maybe the people are more interested in lottery or people want to make quick money

B:There is no mention regarding buying or anything related to buying of lottery

Passage is just about a result , the cause of which is People noticing a thing

Posted from my mobile device

jaisonsunny77 · Answer

A. Those who run lotteries are trying to coerce consumers into buying tickets.  -  the passage is not concerned with ''who'' runs lotteries. 
  
B. Those who buy lottery tickets tend to notice advertisements for lotteries more than those who do not buy tickets.  -  the passage does not make the distinction between ''those who buy lotteries'' and ''those who don't buy lotteries''.

C. Lottery-ticket buyers may overestimate their chances of winning. - based on the information provided to us in the passage, we can reasonably infer (C). Hence,   (C) is the right answer choice. 
   
D. Misinformed people should not be allowed to make decisions.  -  the passage does not deal with ''misinformed people''
  
E. Advertisements are the most common source from which people learn about lotteries.  -  not mentioned in the passage.

Mavisdu1017 · Answer

Hello expert,
The first sentence correlate the possibility of occurrence of an event with how often it comes to their attention—>the more a person notice the advertisement, the more likely he think it will happen to him (he will be the winner of lottery)—> so he will be more likely to buy the lottery (that’s what B is saying: People who buy lottery tickets tend to notice advertisements for lotteries more than those who do not buy tickets).
I went with B and request the expert to correct me. Much thanks.

CountingBack · Answer

I would disagree with the answer provided here, nowhere in the passage is it hinted that lottery buyers look at winning faces of lottery winner,while it is very obvious that lottery outfits run those ads for people in general to gaslight them into thinkin tat they can win the lottery.

Feb2024 · Answer

KarishmaB   IanStewart   MartyMurray   chetan2u   gmatophobia

Can any expert weight in any explain how C is a better choice than B?

Thanks in advance!

KarishmaB · Answer

Given:  
People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by observing how often and how prominently it comes to their attention. 
Over the past few years, not only have more lotteries been established but there have also been more advertisements featuring the winners of such lotteries.

We have been given facts. We need a conclusion.

People judge the likelihood of something happening based on how often and prominently it comes to their attention. Lottery winners are being advertised more frequently (so they are likely coming to people's attention more frequently). This means that l ottery-ticket buyers may overestimate their chances of winning (because they will judge the likelihood of winning based on how often it comes to their attention)
 Hence option (C) works.

(B) Those who buy lottery tickets tend to notice advertisements for lotteries more than those who do not buy tickets.

This if not implied by the argument. What makes people notice advertisements more, we cannot say. The argument only talks about the possible impact of more frequent advertisement - people may overestimate the likelihood of something happening.

IanStewart · Answer

As Karishma explains, the question tells us nothing about why people decide to buy things -- maybe the people who buy lottery tickets don't care about the probability of winning, and only care about the amount they can win, for example. So answer C is out. The stem only talks about how people evaluate probabilities, and B is the only answer that addresses that question.

(edited - I typed B instead of C originally and vice versa)

agrasan · Answer

Hi  IanStewart 
I think you meant (C) is the answer that addresses the conclusion and (B) is out.

IanStewart · Answer

Yes, I did mean that! Thanks for pointing that out.

MuskaanMittal · Answer

Question Explanation
The question stem asks which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn, so this is an inference question. Do not bother breaking the passage into its conclusion, premise, and assumption for inference questions. Instead, focus on what the passage states directly. The correct answer must be true based on the facts in the passage. The passage makes a general assertion regarding people's assessment of probabilities, stating that people tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by observing how often and how prominently it comes to their attention. Following this general assertion, the passage provides the example of increased frequency and prominence of lotteries, stating that over the past few years, not only have more lotteries been established but there have also been more advertisements featuring the winners of such lotteries. Evaluate the answer choices.

Choice A: No. Coerce consumers is out of scope. The passage provides no information on coercion.

Choice B: No. This choice is out of scope. The passage provides information on assessment of probabilities, not on differences in advertisement noticing.

Choice C: Correct. If people's judgment of the likelihood of an event is influenced by how often that event comes to their attention, and they are exposed to more advertisements featuring lottery winners, then it follows that they will tend to judge the event of winning a lottery as more likely, and may therefore overestimate their chances of winning a lottery.

Choice D: No. This choice is extreme and out of scope. The passage provides information on probability assessment. It provides no information to support what should or should not be allowed.

Choice E: No. This choice is extreme. An increase in advertisements featuring the winners of...lotteries is not sufficient information to conclude that advertisements are the most common source for learning about lotteries.

The correct answer is choice C.

People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse

Prep Toolkit

Top 5 GMAT Debrief Videos

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

More than Quant/Verbal Abilities: Speed vs. Accuracy

745 with Only Self-Prep and GMAT Club

From 555 to 765: 210-point Improvement

Perfect 805 Score Debrief by Julia

My Rewards

GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR) Questions

People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse

Prep Toolkit

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

More than Quant/Verbal Abilities: Speed vs. Accuracy

745 with Only Self-Prep and GMAT Club

From 555 to 765: 210-point Improvement

Perfect 805 Score Debrief by Julia

My Rewards