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# People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse

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Math Expert
Joined: 02 Sep 2009
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People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse  [#permalink]

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20 Dec 2018, 00:08
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55% (hard)

Question Stats:

55% (01:29) correct 45% (01:52) wrong based on 124 sessions

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People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by observing how often and how prominently it comes to their attention. Over the past few years, not only have more lotteries been established but there have also been more advertisements featuring the winners of such lotteries.

If the statements above are true, which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn?

A. Those who run lotteries are trying to coerce consumers into buying tickets.

C. Lottery-ticket buyers may overestimate their chances of winning.

D. Misinformed people should not be allowed to make decisions.

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Re: People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse  [#permalink]

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20 Dec 2018, 02:47
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Bunuel wrote:
People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by observing how often and how prominently it comes to their attention. Over the past few years, not only have more lotteries been established but there have also been more advertisements featuring the winners of such lotteries.

If the statements above are true, which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn?

A. Those who run lotteries are trying to coerce consumers into buying tickets.

C. Lottery-ticket buyers may overestimate their chances of winning.

D. Misinformed people should not be allowed to make decisions.

1: More observations--> higher percieved likely
2: More lottery wins --> percieved higher chance of winning.
3: POE A, D, E
4. C is in favor over B as it concludes better
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Re: People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse  [#permalink]

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20 Dec 2018, 12:54
Bunuel wrote:
People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by observing how often and how prominently it comes to their attention. Over the past few years, not only have more lotteries been established but there have also been more advertisements featuring the winners of such lotteries.

If the statements above are true, which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn?

A. Those who run lotteries are trying to coerce consumers into buying tickets.

C. Lottery-ticket buyers may overestimate their chances of winning.

D. Misinformed people should not be allowed to make decisions.

Can someone please explain the thought process behind elimination of A and B, and why C is preferred over A and B?
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Re: People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse  [#permalink]

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20 Dec 2018, 13:14
Crux of passage is : People keep an account of thing happening on the basis of observing how frequent and how strongly it appears infront of them
Than an example of lottery

A: Can be true ,but it can also be not true because it is no where given in passage that lottery guys coerce their customers...maybe the people are more interested in lottery or people want to make quick money

B:There is no mention regarding buying or anything related to buying of lottery

Passage is just about a result , the cause of which is People noticing a thing

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Re: People tend to judge how likely it is that an event will occur by obse   [#permalink] 20 Dec 2018, 13:14
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