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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Senior Manager
Joined: 15 Aug 2004
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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23 Aug 2006, 01:03
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

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Manager
Joined: 22 Aug 2006
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Location: Moscow, Russia

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23 Aug 2006, 04:14
I think A is the answer. The main claim being made is you might a establish a patter and make a prediction but whether you right depends on how you view the agreement of the prediction and the actual result.

B mentions "action to take after prediction based on past experience" but the stimulus is all about the preprdictioon an result interpretaton.

C "several" trials isn't mentioned in the stimulus.

D is plucked out of somewhere.

E - the stimulus never mentions or relies on the context of the prediction.
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"Amicus Plato, sed magic amica veritas"

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Director
Joined: 10 Oct 2005
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Location: US

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23 Aug 2006, 07:08
I think it is E...tough one...E seems closest answer:)

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Manager
Joined: 31 Jul 2006
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23 Aug 2006, 17:13

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CEO
Joined: 20 Nov 2005
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Schools: Completed at SAID BUSINESS SCHOOL, OXFORD - Class of 2008

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23 Aug 2006, 23:41
On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Straight D.
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SAID BUSINESS SCHOOL, OXFORD - MBA CLASS OF 2008

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23 Aug 2006, 23:41
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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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