hmmmm... here are some interesting bits of information.
When this competition concluded on the midnight of Sep 30th, there were 726 registered users and the total accumulated points was 19638.
Bunuel, the favorite to win the School visit had a winning probability of exactly [highlight]10.23%[/highlight]. With few high ranking members settling down for the 7th ,6th ... 2nd prize, Bunuel chances of winning is only slightly increased. It is slightly more than [highlight]12.63%[/highlight]. Math gurus -- please hightlight if there are any serious rounding or approximation errors since I have not subtracted the points of the 9th and 10th prize winners. I thought those winners would be GMATclub members with fewer points and hence might have settled for those prizes. [CR enthusiasts -- please strengthen/weaken or point out my assumptions in the above statement.]
[SC enthusiasts-- please ignore my grammatical mistakes.]
For all those who believe that you do not have any chance please give the below information a thought. Bunuel chances is little more than 12.63% ... let us assume it is slightly less than 20% (1/5 th), the combined chances of Bunuel not getting it is slightly greater than 80% (4/5th). So don't lose hope ..... tomorrow might be your lucky day!!!!!
The below piece of information is would be pleasant only for one person (Bunuel) .... and hence all those faint hearted people.... stop reading or turn or your system monitor.
I have just just taken a snapshot of the entire list of participants and here are some interesting information.
Bunuel has 2009 points and the combined points of all those who have less than or equal to 100 points is 8125. Since the number of points is so heavily fractured among so many members it would be very big upset if someone might get the first prize.
All said, let the best person win and the most desperate one utilize the prize for his/her greater good.
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Good luck to everyone who still [highlight]believe[/highlight]that they could win.....
My numbers agree with your 12.6% before accounting for 9th and 10th place prizes. However, I count about 2475 points among those two prizes, increasing his odds to just over 15%. Assuming that the 1st place prize ends up being worth more than $5,000, rational expectation would support his decision to decline the iPad. However, behavioral economics suggests that people generally would take the sure thing if it's close. I therefore deduce that Bunuel is less risk averse than the average bear.
ps - I keep saying "he" but do we know whether Bunuel is actually male? Just curious...