IanStewart
Xmarksthespot
Very clearly, a repeal of Prop 13 will likely result in a substantial increase in property taxes for every homeowner.
You're making an assumption here, namely that all properties are taxed at the same rates as those in the example given. There's no reason, from the information in the passage, to think that should be true. It is very possible that houses of different prices are taxed at different rates; indeed that's something one might naturally expect to be the case. This is why B is not a good answer to the question: to establish that *every* homeowner will see their property tax increase, the best examples to provide would be that of a very expensive house and of a very cheap house. The examples given prove very little about what will happen to 'every' homeowner, so if the conclusion is that every homeowner will see their tax go up, the argument is a very poor one. If, instead, the conclusion is that identical houses are taxed at different rates under Prop 13, the evidence is perfect.
Xmarksthespot
D is wrong because regardless of whether Prop 13 is repealed or not, all properties, whether identical or not, will be taxed at identical tax rates: either 1% of historical cost/purchase price in the first year plus 1% increase each year, or 3% of the current value each year (be careful not to confuse tax amounts, which can vary, with tax rates, which will be the same for all).
You've just explained why D is the right answer: the tax rates are not identical. 3% of the current value is not the same as 1% plus the annual increase. There is no confusion here between amounts and rates.I think I see what your problem is. Take a step back and determine what the question is asking you to do. The question is NOT asking you to determine the validity or invalidity of the stimulus. It is asking you to determine the conclusion the author is likely trying to prove based on the way he/she has laid out the premises. What are the key premises (stated and unstated)?
1) Under Prop 13, the tax rate is 1% of purchase price in the first year and a 1% increase in the first year's tax amount in the 2nd year, a 1% tax amount on the 2nd year's tax amount in the 3rd year, and so on. What is the proof of this? Note that
the way the author has framed his argument if you had bought your house 11 years ago for $75K, under Prop 13, your tax today would be $914. It goes on to say how the $914 came to be computed as such. Under Prop 13, your neighbor's tax rate on the house he bought today would be 1% of the purchase price of $200K. Do you notice how it's the same
tax rate in the first year that applied to your house in the first year?
2) If Prop 13 is repealed, the tax rate would be 3% of the current market value of the house. As proof of this,
the author says that without Prop 13, you and your neighbor will both pay 3% of $200K, which is $6K. This in spite of the fact that you bought your house for only $75K, and 11 years ago at that, while your neighbor bought his house this year for $200K. The author goes on to say that your neighbor's house is identical to yours and located right next to yours. Do you see what he's trying to imply there? He is basically saying that your house has the same value as your neighbor's house, hence you both pay 3% of $200K. Whether or not this is a valid assumption is irrelevant to the question as the question is asking you to determine what the author is trying to prove.
Look at choice B: If Proposition 13 is repealed, every homeowner is likely to experience a substantial increase in property taxes.
In real life, is there reason to doubt this conclusion, maybe even based on the points you raised? Certainly. But again, the question is not asking you to determine whether the conclusion or premises are valid. It is asking you what the author is likely trying to prove based on the way he has structured his premises and argument. As shown above, this is the likely argument he is trying to prove.
Now look at choice D: If Proposition 13 is not repealed, identical properties will continue to be taxed at different rates.
What premises does the author offer to prove this conclusion? None at all. Let's break it down. Based on the premises offered by the author, what will happen if Proposition 13 is not repealed? Then the current tax rate (1% of purchase price in the first year, 1% increase each year) will continue to be imposed. Nowhere in the author's argument does he imply that identical properties are taxed at different rates. In fact, he only gives 2 examples (your house and your neighbor's house), and both of them are taxed at identical rates (both 1% in the first year). You can argue that 2 houses can hardly be representative of all houses, as I think you are trying to do, but that is not your job here. Your job is to identify what the author is trying to prove.
Focusing on what the question is really asking for helps avoid confusion when answering these types of questions. Again, this question is not asking you to determine whether the author's premises are valid, or whether his assumptions are valid. It's asking you to identify the conclusion that he is likely trying to prove, based on the premises he offered.
Also, regarding your second response (bolded), you are completely lost there, my friend. Look at choice D again:
If Proposition 13 is not repealed, identical properties will continue to be taxed at different rates. This answer choice is confined to a situation where Prop 13 is not repealed, and is not referring to the difference between the tax rate under Prop 13 (1% plus 1% increase) and the tax rate if Prop 13 is repealed (3%).