A historian attempting to predict in the 1870's which nation would take over world leadership from the British probably would have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and been quite wrong.


(A) have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and been

(B) have guessed that it would have been Bismarck's Prussia and he would be

(C) have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and would be

(D) guess Bismarck's Prussia and be

(E) guess that it would be Bismarck's Prussia and would have been

A historian attempting to predict in the 1870's which nation would take over world leadership from the British probably would have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and been quite wrong.

(A) have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and (would)been ->no need to specify would again.
(B) have guessed that it would have been Bismarck's Prussia and he would be ->tense order should be reversed
(C) have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and would be
->needs would have been->this action is some where after the past(i.e. in the future of the past) but before the present.
(D) guess Bismarck's Prussia and be
(E) guess that it would be Bismarck's Prussia and would have been


IMO 'A'
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The action must take in past hence D and E are out immediately.
Now we have to keep the sequence of events in mind. Both action are hypothetical and must take in past. Moreover, prediction has to be earlier action.
So the sequence is 1) guessing--->2)result whether the prediction is correct or not
since the prediction would have take placed in between present and hypothetical past, the same goes for the result.
Hence would have guessed and would have been quite wrong is correct.
+1 A
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A historian attempting to predict in the 1870's which nation would take over world leadership from the British probably would have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and been quite wrong.

(A) have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and been
parrallel in the usage of verb tense: ... would have guessed ... and would have been ...

(B) have guessed that it would have been Bismarck's Prussia and he would be
wordy and awkward

(C) have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and would be
not parrallel in the usage of verb tense

(D) guess Bismarck's Prussia and be
change the intended meaning of the sentence, the author want to express a possibility and an uncertainty about his/her hypothesis

(E) guess that it would be Bismarck's Prussia and would have been
wrong verb tense and not parrallel

Dear sleepynut

I'm happy to respond.

My friend, here you have to know a little history. You don't have to be an expert historian, but you have to realize that at no time did Germany become a dominant world power on the level that Britain had been for centuries. Bismarck and the Prussians united Germany, but they didn't go on to dominate all of Europe at that moment in history. The two World Wars in the 20th century were quite separate from Bismarck's time, and even in these, Germany twice tried to achieve greater military domination and twice failed. Germany in the present day is emerging as a world leader, not with military domination but with economic domination, and ironically, economic domination turns out to be much more powerful in the long run.

The meaning of the sentence depends on this. In other words, the hypothetical historians in the 1870s would have made this prediction that is contrary to fact. The historian in that time might have speculated that Bismarck & Germany were headed for domination of all of Europe, but that's not how events played out. Even if you don't know all this history, the sentence itself makes it clear that the hypothetical historians would have guessed and their guess would have been wrong.

The fact that they guessed something that ultimately did not take place means they made a guess that turned out to be contrary to fact. A contrary-to-fact past event is one of the principal uses of the subjunctive. Sensing the subjunctive often involves understanding meaning. If you only pay attention to individual verbs and ignore meaning, you will miss the subjunctive--in fact, you will miss 90% of what the GMAT SC is about. The GMAT SC is NOT a test of grammar! The GMAT SC is a test of meaning, and the job of grammar is to serve the meaning.

Does all this make sense?
Mike
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