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A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to

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A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to [#permalink]

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New post 27 Sep 2016, 11:14
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Question Stats:

69% (01:01) correct 31% (01:21) wrong based on 110 sessions

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A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to an increase in the mosquito population and thus to an increased threat of encephalitis. People cannot change the weather. Thus people cannot decrease the threat of encephalitis.

The reasoning in the argument above is flawed in that the argument:

(A) takes for granted that because one event precedes another the former must be the cause of the latter
(B) presumes, without providing justification, that a certain outcome would be desirable
(C) ignores the possibility that a certain type of outcome is dependent on more than one factor
(D) takes for granted that a threat that is aggravated by certain factors could not occur in the absence of those factors
(E) draws a conclusion about what is possible from a premise about what is actually the case
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Re: A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to [#permalink]

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New post 27 Sep 2016, 11:33
rs47 wrote:
A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to an increase in the mosquito population and thus to an increased threat of encephalitis. People cannot change the weather. Thus people cannot decrease the threat of encephalitis.

The reasoning in the argument above is flawed in that the argument:

(A) takes for granted that because one event precedes another the former must be the cause of the latter
(B) presumes, without providing justification, that a certain outcome would be desirable
(C) ignores the possibility that a certain type of outcome is dependent on more than one factor
(D) takes for granted that a threat that is aggravated by certain factors could not occur in the absence of those factors
(E) draws a conclusion about what is possible from a premise about what is actually the case

Quote:
Large amount of rainfall ----> Increase in Mosquito Population ----> Increased Threat of Encaphalitis


The reasoning here is : X leads to Y which inevitably leads to Z

Only option (C) states that there may be other causes of Increased Threat of Encaphalitis , such as Preventive measures , Vaccination etc... which have been ignored while reaching the Outcome...

Hence answer will be (C)
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Re: A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to [#permalink]

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New post 02 Oct 2016, 01:10
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It is always better to simply what the argument says so that we can attack it easily.

The argument states that -
1.Large amounts of rainfall in April and May --> 2.increase in mosquito population --> 3.increase in encephalitis.
Then, in the conclusion, it states that since we cannot control point #1, point #3 is inevitable.
Immediately, we can say - okay. but what if we controlled point #2. then, probably point #3 will not happen even if point #1 happens.

Which option states this? Option C. The other factor can be point #2 or vaccination drives etc.
Your main job is to break the causal chain. How do you do this? Ask will this necessarily lead to the next step?
A - this is not the issue here. Author can clearly assume a causal relationship between two things. He/she does not assume the causal relationship for granted. The problem arises when the argument disregards other factors that might have an effect on the relationship. Also, nowhere does the author mention that because rainfall precedes increase in mosquito population, it must lead to increase in mosquito population. He/she assumes this causal relationship from other data (probably research/statistical data. this is allowed).
B - The argument does not discuss desirability at all.
D - 'could not occur in the absence of those factors' - The argument clearly talks about the case in which rainfall occurs.
E - Drawing a conclusion about what is possible is not an error.
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Re: A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to [#permalink]

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New post 12 Nov 2017, 20:28
this is a non-gmat question.
Have fun with this question if you, test takers, like.

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Re: A large amount of rainfall in April and May typically leads to   [#permalink] 12 Nov 2017, 20:28
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