Last visit was: 15 Jan 2025, 22:39 It is currently 15 Jan 2025, 22:39
Close
GMAT Club Daily Prep
Thank you for using the timer - this advanced tool can estimate your performance and suggest more practice questions. We have subscribed you to Daily Prep Questions via email.

Customized
for You

we will pick new questions that match your level based on your Timer History

Track
Your Progress

every week, we’ll send you an estimated GMAT score based on your performance

Practice
Pays

we will pick new questions that match your level based on your Timer History
Not interested in getting valuable practice questions and articles delivered to your email? No problem, unsubscribe here.
Close
Request Expert Reply
Confirm Cancel
User avatar
vanshhpoddar
Joined: 10 Oct 2023
Last visit: 12 Jan 2025
Posts: 3
Own Kudos:
46
 [46]
Given Kudos: 3
Posts: 3
Kudos: 46
 [46]
3
Kudos
Add Kudos
43
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
Most Helpful Reply
User avatar
egmat
User avatar
e-GMAT Representative
Joined: 02 Nov 2011
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 4,517
Own Kudos:
31,879
 [12]
Given Kudos: 667
GMAT Date: 08-19-2020
Products:
Expert reply
Posts: 4,517
Kudos: 31,879
 [12]
12
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
User avatar
MartyMurray
Joined: 11 Aug 2023
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 1,273
Own Kudos:
3,642
 [10]
Given Kudos: 110
GMAT 1: 800 Q51 V51
Expert reply
Active GMAT Club Expert! Tag them with @ followed by their username for a faster response.
GMAT 1: 800 Q51 V51
Posts: 1,273
Kudos: 3,642
 [10]
9
Kudos
Add Kudos
1
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
User avatar
chetan2u
User avatar
RC & DI Moderator
Joined: 02 Aug 2009
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 11,382
Own Kudos:
38,568
 [2]
Given Kudos: 333
Status:Math and DI Expert
Products:
Expert reply
Posts: 11,382
Kudos: 38,568
 [2]
2
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
 
vanshhpoddar
­A stock trader working for a hedge fund has estimated that the stock of a certain company has probability 0.4 of increasing in price by at least 5 dollars during a certain trading day and probability 0.1 of increasing in price by at least 10 dollars during the trading day. Based on the trader's estimates, select for X and for Y the options such that the following statement is most accurate. Make only two selections, one in each column.

If the trader multiplies ____X____ by the reciprocal of ____Y____, then the result is the probability that the price of the stock will increase by at least 10 dollars during the trading day, given that the price increases by at least 5 dollars during the trading day.­­­
­At least 5 dollars would include at least 10 dollars too. So, if increase by at least 5 is 4 times out of 10 times and increase by at least 10 is 1 times out of 10 times, then every time the price goes up by 5 dollars, there is a certain probability that it will go above 10 too.

Thus, we take increase by at least 5 dollars as the total outcome and increase by at least 10 dollars as the favourable outcome.
P(at least 10 given price has increased by 5) =\( \frac{0.1}{0.4}\)

This is 0.1 multiplied by 1/0.4 or 0.1 multiplied by reciprocal of 0.4

Answer given is wrong and being edited accordingly.
­
General Discussion
User avatar
KarishmaB
Joined: 16 Oct 2010
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 15,648
Own Kudos:
71,045
 [3]
Given Kudos: 451
Location: Pune, India
Expert reply
Active GMAT Club Expert! Tag them with @ followed by their username for a faster response.
Posts: 15,648
Kudos: 71,045
 [3]
1
Kudos
Add Kudos
1
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
 
vanshhpoddar
­A stock trader working for a hedge fund has estimated that the stock of a certain company has probability 0.4 of increasing in price by at least 5 dollars during a certain trading day and probability 0.1 of increasing in price by at least 10 dollars during the trading day. Based on the trader's estimates, select for X and for Y the options such that the following statement is most accurate. Make only two selections, one in each column.

If the trader multiplies ____X____ by the reciprocal of ____Y____, then the result is the probability that the price of the stock will increase by at least 10 dollars during the trading day, given that the price increases by at least 5 dollars during the trading day.­



 
Reading the first sentence of the question, I was reminded of conditional probability. Note that P(Increase in price by at least 10 dollars) is a subset of P(Increase in price by at least 5 dollars). 

Say if there are 15 days when the price increased by at least 5 dollars, some of these days would form the set in which the price increased by 10 dollars. Hence, P("At least $5 increase" AND "Atleast $10 increase") = P(At least $10 increase)

We need to find: probability that the price of the stock will increase by at least 10 dollars during the trading day, given that the price increases by at least 5 dollars during the trading day.­ Then

P("At least $10 increase" given "At least $5 increase") is simply P(At least $10 increase) / P(At least $5 increase) = 0.1/0.4  

Hence, if the trader multiplies 0.1 (ANSWER) by the reciprocal of (0.4) (ANSWER), then we will get 0.1 * (1/0.4) = 0.1/0.4 (this probability)

Check out my discussion on conditional probability through the Super Sunday program (details below in my signature) or click herehttps://youtu.be/gN_vlDpUflo



­
User avatar
Pranjall8
Joined: 12 Apr 2024
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 94
Own Kudos:
Given Kudos: 38
Location: India
GPA: 7.8
WE:Accounting (Consumer Packaged Goods)
Posts: 94
Kudos: 128
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
­How can we solve it via conditional probability?
User avatar
ruis
Joined: 17 Sep 2023
Last visit: 03 Nov 2024
Posts: 140
Own Kudos:
Given Kudos: 528
Posts: 140
Kudos: 340
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
Pranjall8
­How can we solve it via conditional probability?
­Official answer with conditional probability
User avatar
mayankdgmat
Joined: 13 May 2022
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 145
Own Kudos:
Given Kudos: 325
Location: India
Concentration: Finance, General Management
Posts: 145
Kudos: 179
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
I have done this in following way:

It is given that price has increased by at least 5.

Suppose there are 10 outcomes possible, as per the probability in 4 instance stock will increase by at least 5.

So now we have 4 cases available with us since it is given to us that one of the case has already happen

in same 10 outcomes, at least 10 has 1 favorable instance. So out of remaining 4, 1 is favorable hence answer is 1/4
User avatar
Gemmie
Joined: 19 Dec 2021
Last visit: 11 Jan 2025
Posts: 531
Own Kudos:
Given Kudos: 76
Location: Viet Nam
Concentration: Technology, Economics
GMAT Focus 1: 695 Q87 V84 DI83
GPA: 3.55
GMAT Focus 1: 695 Q87 V84 DI83
Posts: 531
Kudos: 270
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
­To find the correct values for X and Y, we need to determine the conditional probability that the price of the stock will increase by at least 10 dollars given that it increases by at least 5 dollars.The conditional probability formula is:

1. The probability of the stock increasing by at least 5 dollars is 0.4.
2. The probability of the stock increasing by at least 10 dollars is 0.1.

If we know the stock has already increased by at least $5, we are looking at a subset of days when the price increased by at least $5.

Among these days, we want to find the fraction of days when the price increased by at least $10 (which are all included in this at-least-$5 subset).

To get this fraction, we take the probability of a $10 increase (0.1) and compare it to the probability of a $5 increase (0.4). This comparison is done by dividing 0.1 by 0.4.

=> Probability = \(\frac{0.1}{0.4} = 0.1 * \frac{1}{0.4}\) 

Thus, the correct choices are:

X = 0.1
Y = 0.4­

---
To put it in a simpler way:
We have 10 stocks
=> 4 increases at least $5
=> 1 increase at least $1

Among $5-increase stock, the probability of $1-increase stock is 
\(\frac{1}{4} = \frac{0.1}{0.4} = 0.1 * \frac{1}{0.4}\)­
User avatar
Kianadunn
Joined: 17 Sep 2024
Last visit: 21 Sep 2024
Posts: 1
Location: United States
GMAT 1: 790 Q57 V56
GMAT 1: 790 Q57 V56
Posts: 1
Kudos: 0
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
Let's break down the problem step by step. The trader estimates a 0.4 probability that the stock will increase by at least $5, and a 0.1 probability that it will increase by at least $10. To find the probability that the stock increases by at least X dollars but less than Y dollars, we calculate the difference between these probabilities.
User avatar
SirSanguine
Joined: 08 Jun 2022
Last visit: 07 Jan 2025
Posts: 88
Own Kudos:
Given Kudos: 79
Location: India
Concentration: Leadership, Strategy
GMAT Focus 1: 675 Q90 V81 DI84
GPA: 4
WE:General Management (Education)
Products:
GMAT Focus 1: 675 Q90 V81 DI84
Posts: 88
Kudos: 29
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
P(Event E Given that F) = P ( E and F)/ P(F)

P(E|F)=P(E n F)/P(f)
User avatar
cokekoalas
Joined: 29 May 2023
Last visit: 15 Jan 2025
Posts: 7
Location: United States
GMAT 1: 720 Q51 V51
GRE 1: Q162 V162
GMAT 1: 720 Q51 V51
GRE 1: Q162 V162
Posts: 7
Kudos: 0
Kudos
Add Kudos
Bookmarks
Bookmark this Post
The probability that the price will increase by $10 given that it already increased by $5 is just 0.1 divided by 0.4. That gives us 0.25, or 1/4, meaning there’s a 25% chance the stock will increase by $10 if it’s already gone up by $5.
By the way, if you’re into trading and looking for ways to save on trading fees or challenges, you can check out Fast Track Trading Discount Code. It could be a good way to cut down on costs while you’re building your strategy.
Moderators:
Math Expert
98748 posts
RC & DI Moderator
11382 posts
DI Forum Moderator
444 posts