vanshhpoddar
A stock trader working for a hedge fund has estimated that the stock of a certain company has probability 0.4 of increasing in price by at least 5 dollars during a certain trading day and probability 0.1 of increasing in price by at least 10 dollars during the trading day. Based on the trader's estimates, select for X and for Y the options such that the following statement is most accurate. Make only two selections, one in each column.
If the trader multiplies ____X____ by the reciprocal of ____Y____, then the result is the probability that the price of the stock will increase by at least 10 dollars during the trading day, given that the price increases by at least 5 dollars during the trading day.
Reading the first sentence of the question, I was reminded of conditional probability. Note that P(Increase in price by at least 10 dollars) is a subset of P(Increase in price by at least 5 dollars).
Say if there are 15 days when the price increased by at least 5 dollars, some of these days would form the set in which the price increased by 10 dollars. Hence, P("At least $5 increase" AND "Atleast $10 increase") = P(At least $10 increase)
We need to find:
probability that the price of the stock will increase by at least 10 dollars during the trading day, given that the price increases by at least 5 dollars during the trading day. Then
P("At least $10 increase" given "At least $5 increase") is simply P(At least $10 increase) / P(At least $5 increase) = 0.1/0.4
Hence, if the trader multiplies 0.1 (ANSWER) by the reciprocal of (0.4) (ANSWER), then we will get 0.1 * (1/0.4) = 0.1/0.4 (this probability)
Check out my discussion on conditional probability through the Super Sunday program (details below in my signature) or
click here:
https://youtu.be/gN_vlDpUflo