stormbringer
There are no 'waitlists' yet; only deferrals.
The letter essentially goes like this - starts off with the usual spiel on how they value your loyalty etc. and how there are only so many spots. However, because your application was good, they have deferred making a decision until 1 Feb 2011 though they can contact you anytime. If you am still interested in being considered, you should let them know and that they welcome additional materials to strengthen your candidacy.
So I wrote to them to still consider my application and that is when they wrote back to say 'cool, you have been released from the ED commitment' implying that I am now an RD applicant. So this is not a waitlist situation because being accepted in not contingent upon others dropping out; it depends on how my application compares with all the new applications coming in now in RD (though only till Feb 1).
You are right. However, the other ED applicant I spoke to had a much sooner date on his letter (sometime in December) that he would hear by. Considering they don't start reviewing RD applications until mid-Dec, this scenario is essentially an ED waitlist because it is contingent upon the ED pool, for which the deadline has already passed.
That's interesting. So they have categories within the deferred bunch of applicants. Since your friend is going to hear sooner (mid-Dec), I'd say they're keener on him and don't need to see too many new applications to gauge what he's worth. Whereas I need to prove myself against many more applications because they might just keep me going all the way till Feb 1.