News for the forum members is that SOM is adding a new 'cohort' next year (Currently there are 4 cohorts with 323 students). Generally SOM aims to have a cohort of size 64-75. But this year they increased the intake as the new building became available. At the same time they plan to reduce the cohort size to around 70. So it has to be 5*70=350. Class size can be a little more or less of 350 depending on yield. We can safely assume the yield of Yale to go up this year. All the interviewees I met during the Interview day are damn committed to Yale (including myself

). Due to ranking boom and new facilities, we can assume the yield to be around 55% (Kellogg/Booth/Tuck range).
If we go by this statistic, the Adcom will need to offer 636 offers. As one can expect the number of applications to rise to 2900+, the acceptance rate can be 22% (last year it was 24% as yield was 50%). I think the increase in class size will be offset by increase in yield.
Assuming the Adcom interviews Quarter to a Third of Applications (In the words of Bruce Delmonico), we have a 30% interview rate for Round-1 and 22% offer rate making the probability 70% post-interview.
In Round-1 I believe they interviewed close to 200 on the campus (third interview day had 60 of us) and they will interview (including those already interviewed) nearly 150 in other locations of US, international hub cities and Skype. So if its 350 interviewed, they might make 220+ offers at least in Round-1 (as some will be waitlisted with/without interview and may be admitted later). So it's not over for those who might be waitlisted without interview.