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# Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube

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Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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27 Mar 2016, 11:44
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Difficulty:

65% (hard)

Question Stats:

61% (01:59) correct 39% (02:08) wrong based on 356 sessions

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Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gubernatorial race. Candidate B, the incumbent governor, had figured prominently in a corruption scandal during the previous year. Although he was ultimately never charged with a crime, Candidate B received very negative coverage in local and national media. A poll of registered voters in the state showed that a majority supported Candidate A and would vote for her. In fact, election day “exit polls” of those who voted showed that most had voted for Candidate A, and so she was expected to win. However, once the votes were counted, Candidate B was shown to have won a narrow victory. Clearly, respondents to the polls were not being honest when they claimed to have supported Candidate A.

The argument above depends on which of the following assumptions?

It is difficult to predict the degree to which an incumbent candidate’s support will be affected by negative media coverage.

The negative media coverage made supporters of Candidate B reluctant to express their views in public, and so they claimed to support Candidate A when they actually had voted for Candidate B.

No voter ever changes his or her mind about whom to vote for.

Candidate B successfully used the fact that he had not been charged with a crime to restore his good image with the voting public.

The sample of voters surveyed in the exit poll was representative of those who voted

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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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27 Mar 2016, 18:26
2
Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gubernatorial race. Candidate B, the incumbent governor, had figured prominently in a corruption scandal during the previous year. Although he was ultimately never charged with a crime, Candidate B received very negative coverage in local and national media. A poll of registered voters in the state showed that a majority supported Candidate A and would vote for her. In fact, election day “exit polls” of those who voted showed that most had voted for Candidate A, and so she was expected to win. However, once the votes were counted, Candidate B was shown to have won a narrow victory. Clearly, respondents to the polls were not being honest when they claimed to have supported Candidate A.

Conclusion: respondents to the polls were not being honest when they claimed to have supported Candidate A.

Premises leading to conclusion : once the votes were counted, Candidate B was shown to have won a narrow victory. This sentence follows the premise stating that election day “exit polls” of those who voted showed that most had voted for Candidate A, and so she was expected to win.

What could be the assumption of argument?

The author thinks that exit polls included the opinion of the voters who participated in the election.

The choices are :

1. It is difficult to predict the degree to which an incumbent candidate’s support will be affected by negative media coverage.

some sort of inference. So, not in race.

2.The negative media coverage made supporters of Candidate B reluctant to express their views in public, and so they claimed to support Candidate A when they actually had voted for Candidate B.

It strengthens the conclusion.

3.No voter ever changes his or her mind about whom to vote for. : Opposite of conclusion.

4. Candidate B successfully used the fact that he had not been charged with a crime to restore his good image with the voting public. - not an assumption

5. The sample of voters surveyed in the exit poll was representative of those who voted: This is an assumption made by author. if u negate it, it will destroy conclusion saying that respondents to the polls were not being honest when they claimed to have supported Candidate A.
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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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27 Mar 2016, 18:49
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Premise: Candidate A was expected to win the elections as majority supported Candidate A. But Candidate B won the election by a narrow margin despite receiving negative media coverage.
Conclusion: Respondents to the poll were dishonest

A. It is difficult to predict the degree to which an incumbent candidate’s support will be affected by negative media coverage. - Incorrect - Irrelevant

B. The negative media coverage made supporters of Candidate B reluctant to express their views in public, and so they claimed to support Candidate A when they actually had voted for Candidate B. - Hold

C. No voter ever changes his or her mind about whom to vote for. - Incorrect - Opposite

D. Candidate B successfully used the fact that he had not been charged with a crime to restore his good image with the voting public. - Incorrect - Out of scope.

E. The sample of voters surveyed in the exit poll was representative of those who voted - Hold

Now, between B and E, Negate B: it attacks the premise of the argument instead of invalidating the conclusion. Negate E: If the sample of voters surveyed was not representative of those who voted, then the conclusion that respondents to the poll were dishonest breaks down. The respondents may have voted for A, but since the survey was not representative a wide majority could have voted for B.

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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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30 Mar 2016, 02:19
Hi everyone,

Could someone help me understand why C isn't the answer? Author's conclusion is that the voters were dishonest. Now, if I negate option C, it would mean some of the voters dichallengd change their mind?

Hence, wouldn't that break the conclusion. Though I know E sounds a better option, I'm still not able to get my head around c.
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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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17 May 2016, 09:01
1
carcass wrote:
Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gubernatorial race. Candidate B, the incumbent governor, had figured prominently in a corruption scandal during the previous year. Although he was ultimately never charged with a crime, Candidate B received very negative coverage in local and national media. A poll of registered voters in the state showed that a majority supported Candidate A and would vote for her. In fact, election day “exit polls” of those who voted showed that most had voted for Candidate A, and so she was expected to win. However, once the votes were counted, Candidate B was shown to have won a narrow victory. Clearly, respondents to the polls were not being honest when they claimed to have supported Candidate A.

The argument above depends on which of the following assumptions?

It is difficult to predict the degree to which an incumbent candidate’s support will be affected by negative media coverage.

The negative media coverage made supporters of Candidate B reluctant to express their views in public, and so they claimed to support Candidate A when they actually had voted for Candidate B.

No voter ever changes his or her mind about whom to vote for.

Candidate B successfully used the fact that he had not been charged with a crime to restore his good image with the voting public.

The sample of voters surveyed in the exit poll was representative of those who voted

Option E is assumption
let's negate the option E The sample of voters surveyed in the exit poll was not representative of those who voted.
on negatine we see that the negated option E shatters the conclusion
Hence E is ans
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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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18 May 2016, 12:28
Conclusion - Respondents to the poll were not being honest
option A is irrelevant to the topic in discussion
option D is completely out of scope
option C tells us exactly opposite of what the conclusion states
between option B and E , if we negate each of them we see that B doesn't break the conclusion,it infact strengthen the conclusion
after negating option E the conclusion falls apart
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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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28 May 2016, 09:29
sk5002 wrote:
Hi everyone,

Could someone help me understand why C isn't the answer? Author's conclusion is that the voters were dishonest. Now, if I negate option C, it would mean some of the voters dichallengd change their mind?

Hence, wouldn't that break the conclusion. Though I know E sounds a better option, I'm still not able to get my head around c.

If you negate option C you get that "some voters can change their minds". But this doesn't break the argument since the conclusion states that "voters were dishonest" i.e they said one thing and voted the other way. Hope it is clear!
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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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01 Jun 2016, 15:30
shonikjk wrote:
Hi everyone,

Could someone help me understand why C isn't the answer? Author's conclusion is that the voters were dishonest. Now, if I negate option C, it would mean some of the voters dichallengd change their mind?

Hence, wouldn't that break the conclusion. Though I know E sounds a better option, I'm still not able to get my head around c.

Also there were exit polls, made after the voting. Someone could't be able to change his mind after the voting is already done. It could be true to the previous polls only, but not for the exit polls.
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Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube  [#permalink]

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11 Dec 2017, 20:36
The question is quite long, but there are not so many hard and confusing details in the question. In other words, the argument can be paraphrased, and summarized. Nevertheless, it still takes 2.5 min to find the correct answer.
A. It is difficult to predict the degree to which an incumbent candidate’s support will be affected by negative media coverage. -> weaken
B. The negative media coverage made supporters of Candidate B reluctant to express their views in public, and so they claimed to support Candidate A when they actually had voted for Candidate B. -> explanation

No voter ever changes his or her mind about whom to vote for. -> does not help

Candidate B successfully used the fact that he had not been charged with a crime to restore his good image with the voting public. -> out of scope

E. The sample of voters surveyed in the exit poll was representative of those who voted -> directly link with the argument -> correct
Re: Candidate A was widely believed to be the favorite in her state’s gube &nbs [#permalink] 11 Dec 2017, 20:36
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