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# Chief Economist: Usually, the release of economic data about

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10 Oct 2012, 00:23
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Chief Economist: Usually, the release of economic data about higher-than-expected growth in the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) results in an increase in stock prices
. However, this quarter, the release of data
about strong GDP growth is most likely to result in a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices. Robust GDP
growth will lead to higher interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of bonds and causing a shift
of capital from equity to debt securities.
In the above argument, the statements in boldface play which of
the following roles?
• The first acknowledges a consideration against the main conclusion of the chief economist; the second is that
conclusion.
• The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the
second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.
• The first is a generalization that the chief economist accepts as true; the second is a consequence that follows
from that generalization.
• The first is evidence that the chief economist provides in support of a certain prediction; the second is that
prediction.
• The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will be repeated in the case at issue; the
second acknowledges a circumstance in which that pattern would not hold.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by Skywalker18 on 08 Feb 2017, 11:51, edited 1 time in total.
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10 Oct 2012, 03:16
1
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Chief Economist: Usually, the release of economic data about higher-than-expected growth in the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) results in an increase in stock prices
. However, this quarter, the release of data
about strong GDP growth is most likely to result in a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices. Robust GDP
growth will lead to higher interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of bonds and causing a shift
of capital from equity to debt securities.
In the above argument, the statements in boldface play which of
the following roles?

• The first acknowledges a consideration against the main conclusion of the chief economist; the second is that
conclusion.
INCORRECT.The second part is not the conclusion, it is a reasoning
• The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the
second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.
CORRECT. first is a pattern that will not hold in this case. Second is the reason why the first pattern will not hold. The reason is that money will be moved form capital markets to debt structures.
• The first is a generalization that the chief economist accepts as true; the second is a consequence that follows
from that generalization.
First is NOT a generalization. It is an observation
• The first is evidence that the chief economist provides in support of a certain prediction; the second is that
prediction.
Second is not a prediction, but a factual statement
• The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will be repeated in the case at issue; the
second acknowledges a circumstance in which that pattern would not hold.
First is a pattern that WILL NOT be repeated. Therefore INCORRECT
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10 Oct 2012, 03:27
To me its E. It clearly states what the economists thinks initially. the second boldface contradicts that.
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10 Oct 2012, 06:25
Chief Economist: Usually, the release of economic data about higher-than-expected growth in the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) results in an increase in stock prices
. However, this quarter, the release of data
about strong GDP growth is most likely to result in a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices. Robust GDP
growth will lead to higher interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of bonds and causing a shift
of capital from equity to debt securities
. In the above argument, the statements in boldface play which of
the following roles?

A) The first acknowledges a consideration against the main conclusion of the chief economist; the second is that
conclusion.
B) The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the
second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.
C) The first is a generalization that the chief economist accepts as true; the second is a consequence that follows
from that generalization.
D) The first is evidence that the chief economist provides in support of a certain prediction; the second is that
prediction.
E) The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will be repeated in the case at issue; the
second acknowledges a circumstance in which that pattern would not hold.

First sentence is an example of usual observed behaviour
Second sentence is the reason why this behaviour will not work

A) Correct. The second is definitely a conclusion, the first is defintely a consideration that the economist acknowledges will usually happen
B) Incorrect. First is correct, but second isn't quite right.
C)Incorrect. The second isn't a consequence from the generalisation, it is a conflicting view.
D)Incorrect. First and second sentences in the parapgraph are contradictory, D assumes they are complimentary
E)incorrect, first is a parrern of cause and effect but the economist DOES NOT predict is will be the case.
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10 Oct 2012, 08:49
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Choice B is the correct one. Actually, I confuse btw choice B and choice E. However, the cause and effect in the first bold is not hold/ repeated in the case at issue. Also, the second part, as choice E said, is wrong. The second part support the prediction of the author.
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11 Oct 2012, 02:04
+1B

BF1 – Cause and effect
Case at Issue - this quarter, the release of data about strong GDP growth is most likely to result in a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices
BF2 – Supports Case at Issue

Perfectly presented in option B

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11 Oct 2012, 08:56
usage of usually in the first sentence reaches to the option B
This usage implies that the author will be trying to refute it in the following argument...

Please correct me if i am wrong..
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12 Nov 2013, 01:20
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Bumping for review and further discussion

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13 Nov 2013, 12:16
E it should be

Below is why i think B is incorrect.

B: • The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the
second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.
The economics never PREDICTS in the first boldface that the prediction will not hold. He only mentions the general phenomenon- how it usually happens.

If however, "Usually" were in bold, then B would be correct .
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13 Nov 2013, 20:13
I think B as well - many seem to think it is either this, or E.

Quote:
Chief Economist: Usually, the release of economic data about higher-than-expected growth in the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) results in an increase in stock prices.
However, this quarter, the release of data
about strong GDP growth is most likely to result in a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices. Robust GDP
growth will lead to higher interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of bonds and causing a shift
of capital from equity to debt securities.
In the above argument, the statements in boldface play which of
the following roles?

Let's break it down:
1st sentence: Claim
2nd sentence: Conclusion (However = the former sentence may not be the case = change in support).
3rd: Premise

Quote:
E. The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will be repeated in the case at issue; the
second acknowledges a circumstance in which that pattern would not hold.

Quote:
B. The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the
second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.

E is a pretty strong candidate for the right answer, except that the economist is not just acknowledging the circumstance in which the pattern would not hold, she gives an argument for why it would not hold, thereby expressing her belief in what she thinks will happen. Similarly, E states that the economist predicts that the pattern would be repeated, which is not the case. She just states that usually this is the case; then, she goes ahead and states her prediction.

Thus, B more accurately captures the economist's argument.

surbhi87 wrote:
B: • The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the chief economist predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the
second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.
The economics never PREDICTS in the first boldface that the prediction will not hold. He only mentions the general phenomenon- how it usually happens. If however, "Usually" were in bold, then B would be correct .

The answer choice is not saying that the first bold-faced statement is the economist predicting -- it is saying that the first bolded-faced statement is one she then ultimately makes a prediction abuot. Although, I definitely understand the confusion!

mohan514 wrote:
usage of usually in the first sentence reaches to the option B
This usage implies that the author will be trying to refute it in the following argument...

Please correct me if i am wrong..

I don't think the word "usually" really has any bearing on whether or not it will be refuted -- the word "however" is more of an indication that the previous statement would be refuted. "Usually" in this case just means "typically".
(Does anybody else think that "usually" is weirdly spelled word... ? Stare at it for a while and you'll see... )

Arthur1000 wrote:
First sentence is an example of usual observed behaviour
Second sentence is the reason why this behaviour will not work

A) Correct. The second is definitely a conclusion, the first is defintely a consideration that the economist acknowledges will usually happen
B) Incorrect. First is correct, but second isn't quite right.
C)Incorrect. The second isn't a consequence from the generalisation, it is a conflicting view.
D)Incorrect. First and second sentences in the parapgraph are contradictory, D assumes they are complimentary
E)incorrect, first is a parrern of cause and effect but the economist DOES NOT predict is will be the case.

You're totally correct that the first sentence is an observation of something usual! However, the second sentence is not the reason -- it is the conclusion, which is opposite of the previous claim. Notice that the last bolded-sentence supports the second sentence -- whichever statement is most supported by the argument is usually the conclusion.
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04 Feb 2014, 04:24
why most of these questions under sub 600 level,running without OA?..leading to contrasting views and in the end,doesn't serve the purpose
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08 Feb 2017, 11:56
The chief economist begins his argument by describing the usual relationship of cause and effect. Thus, the first statement in boldface represents a generalization that the chief economist accepts as accurate. The economist then goes on to conclude that this time, however, the usual cause-and-effect relationship will not hold and strong figures of the GDP will cause a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices. To support this conclusion, the economist offers evidence explaining how strong GDP figures may lead to lower stock prices. Therefore, the second statement in boldface represents evidence that supports the main conclusion of the economist.

(A) This answer choice correctly describes the role of the first statement but incorrectly states that the second statement in boldface represents the conclusion of the economist rather than the evidence that supports that conclusion. Remember, the conclusion of the economist is that strong GDP figures will result in a decrease rather than an increase in stock prices.
(B) CORRECT. This answer choice correctly identifies the role of each of the two parts in boldface. The first part represents a generalization that is typically accurate but will not be repeated in the case at issue. The second portion presents evidence in support of the economist’s prediction.
(C) This answer choice correctly describes the role of the first portion but mistakenly states that the second part in boldface follows from this generalization. The second statement in boldface presents evidence that supports the opposite effect from that described in the first portion. Namely, the economist claims that this time, stock prices will decrease rather than increase,
as would be usual.
(D) This answer choice incorrectly states that the first portion supports rather than weighs against that economist’s prediction. In addition, this answer choice incorrectly states that the second portion in boldface represents the economist's
prediction rather than evidence supporting it.
(E) This answer choice incorrectly states that the first statement will be repeated in the case at issue. Remember, the economist argues that the usual pattern will not hold this time. The second statement is correctly described as acknowledging
a circumstance in which the usual pattern will not hold.
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Re: Chief Economist: Usually, the release of economic data about   [#permalink] 08 Feb 2017, 11:56
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