Option D is the correct answer.
First let's understand the information mentioned in the passage before trying to get the answer.
So the passage starts by telling us that "City Y has never hosted a major international sporting event. An analysis of the past five Olympic Games reveals that, without exception, each successful bid came from a city that had hosted at least one major sporting event within five years of its Olympic bid. Based on this observation, City Y’s bid committee believes it has very little chance of being selected to host the upcoming Games".
In this passage the assumption, premise and the conclusion are:
Premise: "City Y has never hosted a major international sporting event. An analysis of the past five Olympic Games reveals that, without exception, each successful bid came from a city that had hosted at least one major sporting event within five years of its Olympic bid".
Conclusion: "City Y’s bid committee believes it has very little chance of being selected to host the upcoming Games".
Assumption: "Based on the past results it assumes that as City that has never hosted a major international sporting event will not be selected to host Olympics".
Now to answer the flaw type of question we need to find the option that means the same thing or is as same as the assumption made in the passage because premise a factual statement which can not be questioned and conclusion is the statement which we reach with the help of premise and assumption due to which it can be questioned on the basis of assumption only.
Now let's look into the options available to us and see which one of them will give us the answer which we are looking for:
Option A: "It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees". This option is irrelevant as the selection criteria and priorities of bidding committee is not talked about which would make this option irrelevant to the assumption made and to the question as well.
EliminatedOption B: "It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics". This option is directly ruling out City Y out, like they will not get the hosting rights whereas in the passage it says that they have little hope to be selected and both are very different.
EliminatedOption C: "It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before". This is what is mentioned in the question i.e. City Y's bidding committee have little hope to be selected as well as it is a kind of rephrase of the conclusion part not assumption.
EliminatedOption D: "It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes". This is exactly what we are looking for, this option rephrases the information as the assumption made in the passage for which the above reasoning is most vulnerable to. But let's check Option E as well before concluding our answer.
SelectedOption E: "It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so". This option is irrelevant as it talks about the interest of the cities which is not part of the passage as well as if City Y was not interested then it would not have bidded for the auction.
EliminatedAfter reading the above options we can conclude that only Option D answers our question. Bunuel
City Y has never hosted a major international sporting event. An analysis of the past five Olympic Games reveals that, without exception, each successful bid came from a city that had hosted at least one major sporting event within five years of its Olympic bid. Based on this observation, City Y’s bid committee believes it has very little chance of being selected to host the upcoming Games.
Which of the following best points out a flaw in the reasoning above?
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.