To solve this question, let us deploy
IMS's four-step technique.
STEP #1 ->
IDENTIFY THE QUESTION TYPELet us read the question stem to identify the question type.
Quote:
Which of the following, if true, most helps to explain the governor’s pessimism?
The stem indicates a
resolve/explain the paradox question.
STEP #2 ->
X-RAY THE PASSAGEIn a
resolve the paradox question, it is a must to x-ray the passage and figure out the paradox. Let us therefore go through the passage.
Quote:
Governor: After several years of large gains, our state’s housing market is posting smaller gains this year. Other areas of our economy grew slightly this year, but no more than in recent years. Thus, given these sources of tax revenue, this year’s overall tax revenue is likely to be higher than last year’s. Nevertheless, I am pessimistic about our ability to meet the financial obligations detailed in this year’s budget.
FACT#1 -> State’s
housing market is posting smaller gains this year after several years of large gains.
INFERENCE: The housing market is posting gains this year, but these gains are not as substantial as those witnessed the past several years.
FACT #2 ->
Other areas of our economy grew slightly this year, but no more than in recent years.
INFERENCE: Areas other than housing market grew slightly, but the growth was not more than (was less than or equal to) the growth observed in recent years.
PARADOX: While this year’s overall tax revenue is likely to be higher than last year’s, the governor is pessimistic about the state's ability to meet the financial obligations detailed in the year’s budget.
STEP #3 ->
FRAME A SHADOW ANSWERTo frame a shadow answer, we need to know what the correct answer must do. In this question, the correct answer must explain why the governor is pessimistic about the state's ability to meet the financial obligations detailed in the year’s budget despite the fact that this year’s overall tax revenue is likely to be higher than last year’s.
SHADOW ANSWER: Any situation that helps explain the pessimism of the governor, giving us a reason to believe that there will actually be difficulty in meeting the financial obligations detailed in this year’s budget.
STEP #4 ->
ELIMINATE INCORRECT ANSWERSOptions that do not match the shadow answer can be eliminated.
A. Several items in the state’s budget for this year are required by law to be funded from sources other than tax revenue collected by the state. -
NOT A MATCH -
What is required by law is irrelevant and does not explain the governor's pessimism. For one, we do not know if the prescribed law will be abided by. And second, we do not have a reason to believe that there will be difficulty in garnering funds from sources other than tax revenue. Also, this option specifically mentions 'several items in the state's budget'. We do not know what these items are. Perhaps, the law could well work in the government's favor. -
ELIMINATEB. The financial obligations in this year’s budget are greater than the obligations in any previous year’s budget. -
NOT A MATCH -
The comparison between this year's financial obligations with previous years looks appealing at first, but at closer introspection, it does not help explain the paradox. What we are looking for is a reason to believe that there will actually be DIFFICULTY in meeting the financial obligations detailed in THIS YEAR'S budget. Just because the financial obligations are greater this year than any year before does not mean there will be difficulty; remember, we do not have any reason to believe that the obligations are directly proportional to the growth of the economy. -
ELIMINATEC. Tax revenues associated with housing, such as property sales taxes and construction industry income taxes, will be higher this year than they were last year. -
NOT A MATCH -
If tax revenues associated with housing, such as property sales taxes and construction industry income taxes, will be higher this year than they were last year, the governor should be optimistic, should he not be? More important, this option complements fact #1 and does not give us what we are looking for in the right answer: a reason to believe that there will actually be difficulty in meeting the financial obligations detailed in this year’s budget. -
ELIMINATED. Fewer new housing-related jobs were created in the state this year than last year. -
NOT A MATCH -
The passage does not concern itself with job creations, and even if fewer new housing-related jobs were created in the state this year than last year, we have no reason to believe that there will actually be difficulty in meeting the financial obligations detailed in this year’s budget. -
ELIMINATEE. This year’s state budget is based on the assumption that tax revenue will grow at no less than the same rate as it has in recent years. -
MATCHES THE SHADOW ANSWER -
We know that this year’s overall tax revenue is likely to be higher than last year’s, but this option interestingly makes a comparison with recent years (very clever indeed!). We also inferred that the housing market is posting gains this year, but these gains are not as substantial as those witnessed the past several years. Moreover, areas other than the housing market grew slightly, but the growth was not more than (was less than or equal to) the growth observed in recent years. And these "areas" (housing market + other areas) are sources of tax revenue as indicated in the last sentence of the passage. What is deductible from both the drawn inferences is that the tax revenue's growth this year would be less than the growth observed in recent years (keep in mind that this year's overall tax revenue is not yet figured). Therefore, if this year’s state budget is based on the assumption that tax revenue will grow at no less than the same rate as it has in recent years, but if the growth would be less, we have a strong reason to believe that there will actually be difficulty in meeting the financial obligations detailed in this year’s budget. The paradox is resolved. -
MARK AND MOVEHence, (E) becomes the correct answer.