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GMATNinjaTwo


Hi LakerFan24, maybe this will help you keep track of the variables...

a = the after-tax price of cigarettes
p = the pre-tax price of cigarettes
t = the tax

The after-tax price is equal to the pre-tax price plus the tax, so a = p + t. For example, if the pre-tax price of a pack is $4.75 (p = 4.75) and the tax on each pack is $0.25 (t = 0.25), the after-tax price is $5.00 (a = p + t = 4.75 + 0.25 = 5.00).

If the tax (t) increases by 8 cents (from 25 cents per pack to 33 cents per pack) and the pre-tax price (p) remains unchanged, the after-tax price (a) will go up by 8 cents (a = p + t = 4.75 + .33 = 5.08). But what if the pre-tax price (p) decreases from $4.75 to $4.67? In that case, the after-tax price (a) will remain unchanged, despite the tax increase (a = p + t = 4.67 + .33 = $5.00). What if the pre-tax price (p) decreases from $4.75 to $4.50? In that case, the after-tax price (a) will decrease from $5.00 to $4.83 (a = p + t = 4.50 + .33 = 4.83).

Hopefully that helps you make sense of the passage and answer choice D!

Hello GMATNinjaTwo,

I eliminated D because the option says, "the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes was not eight or more cents lower than it had been in the previous year". Couldn't that also mean that the pretax price could have been much higher? Say the pretax price was 3 dollars earlier, but is now 5 dollars, would it not then stand to reason that the pretax price actually plays a more vital role?
Please help me understand if this is a valid line of reasoning.
Thanks in advance.
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amoghhlgr
Wrong answer... D cannot be right. The author is clearly under the assumption that the price itself did not increase separately along with the increase in tax.

New Price = Old Price + Tax....

Now, the author claims that the tax increased, so the new price increased and the sales dropped.

But, the assumption here is that the Old Price did not increase simultaneously from its previous year's value.

Option D, states that the Old Price was not less than 8 cents or more than the previous year's price. This is the same as saying that the Old Price was in fact 8 cents or more than the previous price. It is contrary to the explanation we are seeking.

A is the right answer because it talks about the price increase.

Please verify this GMATNinja Bunuel
The author concludes that the "volume of cigarette sales" is "strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes." The fact that an eight-percent tax increase lead to a ten percent drop in sales is cited to support this conclusion. The author also notes that the previous year, sales dropped by only one percent.

We are looking for an assumption required by the argument. In other words, we are looking for something necessary for the argument to hold. In general, an assumption should also strengthen an argument.

Let's consider (A):

Quote:
The argument above requires which of the following assumptions?

(A) During the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes did not increase by as much as it had during the year prior to the tax increase.
The argument is concluding that the "volume of cigarette sales" is "strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes." To support this conclusion, the author suggests that the larger drop in sales after the eight-cent tax increase was due to a larger increase in the after-tax price of the cigarettes. So is the above necessary to reach this conclusion?

Well, if "the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes did not increase by as much as they had the previous year," then the overall price increase might NOT have been greater than it was the previous year. In fact, if the "pretax price of a pack of cigarettes did not increase by as much as they had the previous year," it's possible the previous's year's after-tax price increase was greater then the following year's. And if that were the case, the argument would fall apart, because the greater drop in sales would NOT be accompanied by a greater price increase.

So if anything, (A) weakens the argument. And because an assumption should strengthen an argument, we can eliminate (A).

Let's now consider (D):

Quote:
(D) For the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes was not eight or more cents lower than it had been in the previous year.
What if the pretax price of cigarettes WAS eight or more cents lower than it had been in the previous year? In other words, what if this assumption weren't true?

If that were the case, then the eight-cent tax increase would be canceled out by the eight-or-more-cent decrease in the pre-tax price. So overall, the after-tax price would either be the same or lower than the previous year's. And if the after-tax price doesn't increase, then the argument falls apart. Because the argument depends on the idea that an increase in after-tax price is causing a decrease in sales. But if there is no increase in after-tax price, then we have no evidence to conclude that the "volume of cigarette sales" is "strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes."

So because we need to assume that "the pre-tax price of cigarettes was NOT eight or more cents lower than it had been the previous year," (D) is an assumption on which the argument depends, and it's correct.

I hope that helps!
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Hi, i am unable to comprehend this question. I cannot properly negate A
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Hi, i am unable to comprehend this question. I cannot properly negate A
Did you see this post? Check it out and let us know whether that clears things up!
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Pretax means original price.
If negated D = pretax price was eight or more cents lower.
If we take nine cents lower pretax, coupled with eight cents of tax increase = decrease overall "aftertax" price ironically = no overall price increase .
I think it safely kills the conclusion.
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In the year following an eight-cent increase in the federal tax on a pack of cigarettes, sales of cigarettes fell ten percent. In contrast, in the year prior to the tax increase, sales had fallen one percent. The volume of cigarette sales is therefore strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.

Argument understanding
Year after the 8-cent increase in tax > sales decreased by 10%
The previous year (prior to the 8-cent increase in tax), sales fell - why? we don't know.


Conclusion - Sales are strongly related to after-tax price (the assumption is that the after-tax price is more for which we need to ensure that before tax price did not decrease because if it decreases, then the after-tax price may not increase even after the tax increase and we can't conclude that sales is strongly related to after-tax price - in that case there may be an alternate reason for falling sales)

The argument above requires which of the following assumptions?

(A) During the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes did not increase by as much as it had during the year prior to the tax increase. - if the pretax price did not increase as much as the previous year, then the after-tax price in the year after the tax increase may be lower than the previous year - that weakens the conclusion. This option says that the pretax price is lower (weakener) as against what we need is that the pre-tax price DID NOT decrease.

(B) The one percent fall in cigarette sales in the year prior to the tax increase was due to a smaller tax increase. - smaller tax increase > small fall in sales, more tax increase (we need to make an additional assumption here) > more fall in sales - in a way it strengthens. What we need is an assumption (necessary condition) and not a strengthener.

(C) The pretax price of a pack of cigarettes gradually decreased throughout the year before and after the tax increase - In line with A its a Weakner. What we need for our assumption is the exact opposite the pre-tax price DID NOT decrease.

(D) For the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes was not eight or more cents lower than it had been in the previous year. - In line with our pre-thinking. The negation of this statement will break the conclusion.

(E) As the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes rises, the pretax price also rises. - not necessarily. The after-pretax price can be the same (say $100) but the after-tax price can be different (say if tax is 12% - $112 or tax is 50% then $150). This is at best an out-of-scope. The scope of the argument is decrease in sales is strongly related to the after-tax price.
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Questions like these make me wanna quit my gmat . Had my grades not been bad , I wouldnt have cared for this damn exam . Such a curse this exam is.
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Questions like these make me wanna quit my gmat . Had my grades not been bad , I wouldnt have cared for this damn exam . Such a curse this exam is.
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:) The prep for this exam makes you work on your logic and reasoning skills - not knowledge, but skills. They take time to develop. But once you do, they help you throughout the rest of your life. You know how there are some people with whom if you talk for even 5 mins, you get an intelligent vibe; it makes you one of those people. Of course, it has to be hard! Keep working, keep learning! Best wishes!
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I was inclined to A initially as well but then I took another look the conclusion -

The volume of cigarette sales is therefore strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.

The author's conclusion hinges on only the after-tax price, while A takes into account only the pre-tax price, logically (outside of GMAT logic), a price increase should suppress demand if other variables are the same but since we only have to use information that is relevant to the conclusion, A is not relevant.

D basically says the pre-tax price did not decrease by 8 or more cents. While this choice is also talking about pre-tax price while the conclusion is about after-tax price, it relates to the after-tax price in a way choice A does not. If the pre-tax price indeed fell by 8 or more cents, the federal tax will have no impact on the after-tax price, if the after-tax price is the same and demand still fell, then there must be some other variables for the decline and that weakens the author's conclusion. An important distinction here is that the author says that the after-tax PRICE impacts demand and not the Tax itself.
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In the year following an eight-cent increase in the federal tax on a pack of cigarettes, sales of cigarettes fell ten percent. In contrast, in the year prior to the tax increase, sales had fallen one percent. The volume of cigarette sales is therefore strongly related to the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.

So basically without tax increase, the sales dropped only one percent while following a tax increase the sales dropped 8 percent, conclusion: the after tax price impacts the sales.

(A) During the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes did not increase by as much as it had during the year prior to the tax increase.
--The reasoning of this argument doesn't involve the price fluctuation AFTER the tax increase

(B) The one percent fall in cigarette sales in the year prior to the tax increase was due to a smaller tax increase.
--The reasoning itself is irrelevant to the cause of tax increase

(C) The pretax price of a pack of cigarettes gradually decreased throughout the year before and after the tax increase
--If true, then the reasoning doesn't stand, then there would be no needs to find the assumption of this reasoning

(D) For the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of cigarettes was not eight or more cents lower than it had been in the previous year.
--It means the after tax price truly dropped below last year's level, and by using negating technique, if the pretax price went up higher than 8% of last year, it means the conclusion doesn't stand, so D

(E) As the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes rises, the pretax price also rises.
--Similar to C, if yes, then the reasoning doesn't stand
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I got this question right and agree with all the rationale stated above for choosing option D. Any thought / correction is welcome!

However, there is an interesting counter-argument to be made that negating (D) DOES NOT necessarily break the argument - that D is not a necessary assumption!

Breaking it down, negating the option to say that "the pre-tax price does drop by 8cents or more" and, more specifically, let's assume the pretax price drop is so large that the after-tax price also drops so much, to an extent that the 10% drop in total sales required an increase in volume to partially offset the price drop. This way, the volume is still "strongly related to aftertax price" just in a different direction. Therefore, the conclusion still holds - negation test not working or this option is not really a critical assumption!
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JuniqueLid
I got this question right and agree with all the rationale stated above for choosing option D. Any thought / correction is welcome!

However, there is an interesting counter-argument to be made that negating (D) DOES NOT necessarily break the argument - that D is not a necessary assumption!

Breaking it down, negating the option to say that "the pre-tax price does drop by 8cents or more" and, more specifically, let's assume the pretax price drop is so large that the after-tax price also drops so much, to an extent that the 10% drop in total sales required an increase in volume to partially offset the price drop. This way, the volume is still "strongly related to aftertax price" just in a different direction. Therefore, the conclusion still holds - negation test not working or this option is not really a critical assumption!
Part of the problem is the specific wording of the question. If the question were, "The conclusion above cannot be true unless which of the following is also true?", then (D) might be a flawed answer.

But, instead, the question is this: "The argument above requires which of the following assumptions?" We're looking for the answer choice that is required in order for the logic of the argument to hold. The author's reasoning falls apart if (D) is not assumed, as explained here: https://gmatclub.com/forum/in-the-year- ... l#p2913760.

Your example attempts to show how the conclusion could still be true without (D), but that doesn't change the fact that the author's argument doesn't work without (D).
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