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Bunuel
Nine cards numbered from 1 to 9 are placed in an empty bowl. Four cards are drawn from the bowl one-by-one without replacement to form a four-digit number (first card gives the thousands digit, second card gives the hundreds digit, third card gives the tens digit and fourth card gives the units digit). What it the probability that the four-digit number is even?

A. \(\frac{1}{9}\)
B. \(\frac{2}{9}\)
C. \(\frac{3}{9}\)
D. \(\frac{4}{9}\)
E. \(\frac{5}{9}\)
I am not sure I understand the reasoning.

if we do it the long way and determine all possible numbers as 9*8*7*6 then try to find all possible combinations that would allow for a number to still be even.

Example:
OddOddOddEven
OddOddEvenEven
OddEvenEvenEven
EvenEvenEvenEven

we would get 1344 possible ways and when divided by all the possible outcomes we get 2/3.

Am I missing something obvious?

You should get 4/9 with any correct method. You are missing couple of cases there:

Odd - Odd - Odd - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 3/7 * 4/6 = 5/63

Even - Odd - Odd - Even = 4/9 * 5/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63
Odd - Even - Odd - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63
Odd - Odd - Even - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63

Even - Even - Odd - Even = 4/9 * 3/8 * 5/7 * 2/6 = 5/126
Even - Odd - Even - Even = 5/126
Odd - Even - Even - Even = 5/126

Even - Even - Even - Even = 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/126

The sum = 4/9.
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Bunuel, I am pretty sure there is something really really wrong with my understanding, but can you please help. I approached it as,
Last digit should be even. For the first three it is irrespective whether they are odd or even.
Case 1 : Last digit is 2. Then for the first digit there are 8 possible options.
Probability = (8/9) * (7/8) * (6/7)
And then same when the last digit is either 4 or 6 or 8
So total probability = 4 * ( (8/9) * (7/8) * (6/7) )
I know this is giving me a value >1, and of course this is wrong, so could you please explain the flaw in my understanding. Thank you
Bunuel
Shivang29
Bunuel
Nine cards numbered from 1 to 9 are placed in an empty bowl. Four cards are drawn from the bowl one-by-one without replacement to form a four-digit number (first card gives the thousands digit, second card gives the hundreds digit, third card gives the tens digit and fourth card gives the units digit). What it the probability that the four-digit number is even?

A. \(\frac{1}{9}\)
B. \(\frac{2}{9}\)
C. \(\frac{3}{9}\)
D. \(\frac{4}{9}\)
E. \(\frac{5}{9}\)
I am not sure I understand the reasoning.

if we do it the long way and determine all possible numbers as 9*8*7*6 then try to find all possible combinations that would allow for a number to still be even.

Example:
OddOddOddEven
OddOddEvenEven
OddEvenEvenEven
EvenEvenEvenEven

we would get 1344 possible ways and when divided by all the possible outcomes we get 2/3.

Am I missing something obvious?

You should get 4/9 with any correct method. You are missing couple of cases there:

Odd - Odd - Odd - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 3/7 * 4/6 = 5/63

Even - Odd - Odd - Even = 4/9 * 5/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63
Odd - Even - Odd - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63
Odd - Odd - Even - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63

Even - Even - Odd - Even = 4/9 * 3/8 * 5/7 * 2/6 = 5/126
Even - Odd - Even - Even = 5/126
Odd - Even - Even - Even = 5/126

Even - Even - Even - Even = 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/126

The sum = 4/9.
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ragnarok13
Bunuel, I am pretty sure there is something really really wrong with my understanding, but can you please help. I approached it as,
Last digit should be even. For the first three it is irrespective whether they are odd or even.
Case 1 : Last digit is 2. Then for the first digit there are 8 possible options.
Probability = (8/9) * (7/8) * (6/7)
And then same when the last digit is either 4 or 6 or 8
So total probability = 4 * ( (8/9) * (7/8) * (6/7) )
I know this is giving me a value >1, and of course this is wrong, so could you please explain the flaw in my understanding. Thank you
Bunuel
Shivang29
Nine cards numbered from 1 to 9 are placed in an empty bowl. Four cards are drawn from the bowl one-by-one without replacement to form a four-digit number (first card gives the thousands digit, second card gives the hundreds digit, third card gives the tens digit and fourth card gives the units digit). What it the probability that the four-digit number is even?

A. \(\frac{1}{9}\)
B. \(\frac{2}{9}\)
C. \(\frac{3}{9}\)
D. \(\frac{4}{9}\)
E. \(\frac{5}{9}\)

I am not sure I understand the reasoning.

if we do it the long way and determine all possible numbers as 9*8*7*6 then try to find all possible combinations that would allow for a number to still be even.

Example:
OddOddOddEven
OddOddEvenEven
OddEvenEvenEven
EvenEvenEvenEven

we would get 1344 possible ways and when divided by all the possible outcomes we get 2/3.

Am I missing something obvious?

You should get 4/9 with any correct method. You are missing couple of cases there:

Odd - Odd - Odd - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 3/7 * 4/6 = 5/63

Even - Odd - Odd - Even = 4/9 * 5/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63
Odd - Even - Odd - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63
Odd - Odd - Even - Even = 5/9 * 4/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 = 5/63

Even - Even - Odd - Even = 4/9 * 3/8 * 5/7 * 2/6 = 5/126
Even - Odd - Even - Even = 5/126
Odd - Even - Even - Even = 5/126

Even - Even - Even - Even = 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/126

The sum = 4/9.
You're right—the first three digits don’t matter. Only the last digit determines whether the number is even. The probability of that happening is 4/9. That’s it!

You can check more on this question here: https://gmatclub.com/forum/nine-cards-n ... 47082.html

Hope it helps/
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Bunuel

Quote:
Four cards are drawn from the bowl one-by-one without replacement to form a four-digit number
--------This basically means that we cannot put back the card in the empty bowl once they are drawn out of the empty bowl, right?

If yes, what if the thousands, hundreds and tens digits are even (even though the first three digits donot matter for the four digit number to be even), then we are left with one even digit from a total of 6 digits left (5 odd digits and 1 even digit)and in that case the probability that the fourth digit would be even is 1/6?

Where do i go wrong in my understanding/approach?

Thanks in advance!
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Bunuel
Official Solution:

Nine cards numbered from 1 to 9 are placed in an empty bowl. Four cards are drawn from the bowl one-by-one without replacement to form a four-digit number (first card gives the thousands digit, second card gives the hundreds digit, third card gives the tens digit and fourth card gives the units digit). What it the probability that the four-digit number is even?

A. \(\frac{1}{9}\)
B. \(\frac{2}{9}\)
C. \(\frac{3}{9}\)
D. \(\frac{4}{9}\)
E. \(\frac{5}{9}\)


The four-digit number will be even if the units digit is even. So, the question basically asks about the probability that 4th card picked will be even. There are 4 even cards from 9, so the probability that 4th card will be even is \(\frac{4}{9}\).

To elaborate more: the initial probability of drawing an even card is \(\frac{4}{9}\). Without knowing the other results, the probability of drawing an even card will not change for ANY successive drawing: second, third, fourth... There is simply no reason to believe WHY is any drawing different from another (provided we don't know the other results).


Answer: D
Bunuel

Quote:
Four cards are drawn from the bowl one-by-one without replacement to form a four-digit number

This basically means that we cannot put back the card in the empty bowl once they are drawn out of the empty bowl, right?

If yes, what if the thousands, hundreds and tens digits are even (even though the first three digits donot matter for the four digit number to be even), then we are left with one even digit from a total of 6 digits left (5 odd digits and 1 even digit)and in that case the probability that the fourth digit would be even is 1/6?

Where do i go wrong in my understanding/approach?

Thanks in advance!

The point is that we don't know what the first three cards were, so without that information, nothing changes when calculating the probability for the fourth card.

Consider this: there are 8 cards, 5 spades, and 3 hearts. What is the probability that the first card you pick will be a spade? Clearly, it’s 5/8.

Now, suppose I randomly remove three cards without telling you which cards were thrown away. What is the probability now that you pick a spade out of the 5 remaining cards? Even though the sample has been reduced, the probability still remains 5/8. Why should it change?

Another scenario: using the same 8 cards (5 spades and 3 hearts), imagine you are allowed to pick one card, but only from a randomly selected subset of 5 cards. What is the probability of picking a spade? Again, it remains 5/8.

In all these cases, the probability does not change. If it were to increase or decrease, it would imply that the probability of picking a heart would inversely change. But there is no reason for this to happen, as the process remains random, and we lack information about the removed or previously picked cards.

Check all cases here: https://gmatclub.com/forum/m37-376460.html#p3532064

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