The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with

Question

The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with us for some time. Second, car sales are at their lowest in years. Of course, had either one or the other phenomenon failed to occur, this would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. But, their occurrence together makes it quite probable that my conclusion is correct.

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

A) If car sales are at their lowest in years, then it is likely that the economy is doing badly.

B) If the economy is doing badly, then either the real estate market or the car sales market is not healthy.

C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.

D) If the economy is in a healthy state, then it is unlikely that the real estate and car sales markets are both in a slump.

E) The bad condition of the economy implies that both the real estate and the car sales markets are doing badly.

aniket16c · Accepted Answer

A = real estate slump ; B = car sales at their lowest
Y = economy doing badly

Causation A +B --> Y
Common traps: 
1. Y --> A +B is not true as there can be n number of factors that can cause the economy to slump. 
2. A / B --> Y
3. Y --> A or Y --> B

Alternative scenario: ~Y --> ~ (A + B) = true

A) If car sales are at their lowest in years, then it is likely that the economy is doing badly.
Trap 2 - Wrong

B) If the economy is doing badly, then either the real estate market or the car sales market is not healthy.
Trap 1 - Wrong

C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.
Similar to Trap 2 - wrong

D) If the economy is in a healthy state, then it is unlikely that the real estate and car sales markets are both in a slump.
- Similar to alternative scenario = Correct

E) The bad condition of the economy implies that both the real estate and the car sales markets are doing badly.
- Trap 1 - Wrong

KarishmaB · Answer

Question based on Conditionals. Check this first: https://youtu.be/MmlwcTlHZz8 Premises: Both real estate and car sales are bad. Had either one or the other been ok, it would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. (Slump in one could co-exist with healthy economy) When they both do badly, it is quite probable that the economy is doing badly. Conclusion : The economy is doing badly. We need an inference. A) If car sales are at their lowest in years, then it is likely that the economy is doing badly. No, the discussion is what happens when both car sales and real estate are doing badly. B) If the economy is doing badly, then either the real estate market or the car sales market is not healthy. We are given: If both bad, economy likely bad. This implies nothing about what happens when economy is bad. Recall when we are given "If A, B," it does not implies anything about B. When B happens, does A happen or not? We don't know. C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy. Not correct. We are given that one healthy and one bad can co-exist with a healthy economy. Not that one healthy and one bad likely implies healthy economy. D) If the economy is in a healthy state, then it is unlikely that the real estate and car sales markets are both in a slump. We are given: If both bad, economy likely bad. This is same as saying: If economy not bad, then likely both are not bad. This is exactly what (D) says. Hence (D) can be inferred. Recall when we are given "If A, B," it implies "Not B means not A" E) The bad condition of the economy implies that both the real estate and the car sales markets are doing badly. We are given: If both bad, economy likely bad. This implies nothing about what happens when economy is bad. Recall when we are given "If A, B," it does not implies anything about B. When B happens, does A happen or not? We don't know. Answer (D)

DinoPen · Answer

I said D. (Take the converse of the sentence)

The argument is that if real estate is in a slump AND car sale are at their lowest, then the economy is unhealthy. 
Argument 1 = Real estate is in a slump
Argument 2 = Car sales are at their lowest.
Conclusion: Economy is doing badly.

Eliminated A: You need Argument 1 and 2 for the economy to be bad.
Eliminated B: Same reason for A.
Eliminated C: Having a healthy real estate market doesn't lead to a healthy economy
Eliminated E: I suspect that this answer choice might be a trap. It's almost phrased like the conclusion is the reason why argument 1 and 2 are true.

auradediligodo · Answer

The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with us for some time. Second, car sales are at their lowest in years. Of course, had either one or the other phenomenon failed to occur, this would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. But, their occurrence together makes it quite probable that my conclusion is correct.

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

Inference question

Pre-thinking

The argument says that when the two indicators presented are bad the country's economy is probably bad. 
If one indicator did not decrease and the other is bad, then the economy might be healthy.

Inference#1  : we can infer that when both the indicators are good, then the country's economy is likely to be good

Inference#2  : If the country is healthy, then the 2 indicators cannot be bad at the same time

POE

A) If car sales are at their lowest in years, then it is likely that the economy is doing badly.
 What about the real estate?

B) If the economy is doing badly, then either the real estate market or the car sales market is not healthy.
 Per the argument both have to be bad

C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.
 The real estate market might be healthy but decreasing also.

D)   If the economy is in a healthy state, then it is unlikely that the real estate and car sales markets are both in a slump.
 In line with inference#2

E) The bad condition of the economy implies that both the real estate and the car sales markets are doing badly.
 The argument is hypothetical while this choice is factual

agrasan · Answer

Hi experts  GMATNinja   MartyMurray   KarishmaB ,

Could you please explain why option C is wrong?
Let's say:
X = "real estate slump"
Y = "lowest car sales"
Z = "bad economy"
The argument says: X + Y --> Z,
It also says: Not X + Y --> Not Z OR 
X + Not Y --> Not Z
Keeping above in mind, option D should be correct, right? Is D wrong because what might have caused in past might not hold true for future?
Could you please explain where I am going wrong here conceptually?

The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with us for some time. Second, car sales are at their lowest in years. Of course, had either one or the other phenomenon failed to occur, this would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. But, their occurrence together makes it quite probable that my conclusion is correct.

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.

srik410 · Answer

For removing option C,

not A or not B -> C is equivalent to not (A and B) -> C ie here If both did not slump together, then economy is likely going to be healthy

not A -> C would be incorrect since A not slumping is partial truth of both not slumping together. So nothing can be derived from this info

The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with

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