The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with

The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with us for some time. Second, car sales are at their lowest in years. Of course, had either one or the other phenomenon failed to occur, this would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. But, their occurrence together makes it quite probable that my conclusion is correct.

Which one of the following inferences is most strongly supported by the information above?

Hi experts GMATNinja MartyMurray KarishmaB,

Could you please explain why option C is wrong?
Let's say:
X = "real estate slump"
Y = "lowest car sales"
Z = "bad economy"
The argument says: X + Y --> Z,
It also says: Not X + Y --> Not Z OR
X + Not Y --> Not Z
Keeping above in mind, option D should be correct, right? Is D wrong because what might have caused in past might not hold true for future?
Could you please explain where I am going wrong here conceptually?


The economy is doing badly. First, the real estate slump has been with us for some time. Second, car sales are at their lowest in years. Of course, had either one or the other phenomenon failed to occur, this would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. But, their occurrence together makes it quite probable that my conclusion is correct.

C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.

Question based on Conditionals.
Check this first: https://youtu.be/MmlwcTlHZz8

Premises:
Both real estate and car sales are bad.
Had either one or the other been ok, it would be consistent with the economy as a whole being healthy. (Slump in one could co-exist with healthy economy)
When they both do badly, it is quite probable that the economy is doing badly.

Conclusion: The economy is doing badly.


We need an inference.


A) If car sales are at their lowest in years, then it is likely that the economy is doing badly.

No, the discussion is what happens when both car sales and real estate are doing badly.

B) If the economy is doing badly, then either the real estate market or the car sales market is not healthy.

We are given: If both bad, economy likely bad.
This implies nothing about what happens when economy is bad.
Recall when we are given "If A, B," it does not implies anything about B. When B happens, does A happen or not? We don't know.

C) If the real estate market is healthy, then it is likely that the economy as a whole is healthy.

Not correct. We are given that one healthy and one bad can co-exist with a healthy economy. Not that one healthy and one bad likely implies healthy economy.

D) If the economy is in a healthy state, then it is unlikely that the real estate and car sales markets are both in a slump.

We are given: If both bad, economy likely bad.
This is same as saying: If economy not bad, then likely both are not bad.
This is exactly what (D) says. Hence (D) can be inferred.

Recall when we are given "If A, B," it implies "Not B means not A"

E) The bad condition of the economy implies that both the real estate and the car sales markets are doing badly.

We are given: If both bad, economy likely bad.
This implies nothing about what happens when economy is bad.
Recall when we are given "If A, B," it does not implies anything about B. When B happens, does A happen or not? We don't know.

Answer (D)