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Intern
Joined: 02 Aug 2016
Posts: 17
Location: United States
GMAT 1: 740 Q50 V40
GPA: 3.78

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01 Apr 2017, 07:18
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

The argument that the company should consider transferring its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is flawed. In this essay, I will discuss the reasoning behind this argument that was presented in the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm and show why it is logically unsound.

One underlying assumption of the argument is that it compares the average coffee drinker's consumption to that of the average cola drinker without stating any supporting numerical data such as, what is the actual average consumption of each drink or how many people consume each drink. This assumption is not valid since it is plausible that, for example, cola consumption at a young age is 5 cups a day and it decreases to 3 cups a day. Whereas, coffee consumption at a young age is 1 cup a day and it increases to 3 cups a day. More significantly, the number of people who drink cola is bigger than that who drink coffee. The argument would be made stronger if it provided information regarding the actual consumption of the two drinks.

Another invalid assumption is that no information regarding the success of the specific brands of Cola Loca or Early Bird Coffee is given. The flaw here is that the author ignores the possibility that Cola Loca is the market leader in cola, with more than a 50 percent market share, while Early Bird Coffee is an unknown coffee brand with less than 1 percent market share. One way of improving the argument is to provide detailed information regarding these companies.

Finally, the author assumes that the consumption trend will continue in the future based on historical information. But the author has not provided us with any evidence to support this assumption and has left many questions unanswered. What if cola consumption will increase as the drink becomes healthier? Also, what if younger consumers will prefer cola over coffee in the future? Without, decisive answers to these pertinent questions, one is left with the impression that this assumption is grounded more in wishful thinking than in substantive facts.

The flaws detailed above suggest that the conclusion presented in the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm may not be logically drawn. Therefore, it is evident that the line of reasoning is neither sound nor convincing.
Manager
Joined: 20 Sep 2016
Posts: 122
GMAT 1: 680 Q49 V35
GPA: 3.99

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04 Apr 2017, 05:33
A nice one. I know nothing about AWA grading, so I'll skip on that.
things I noticed:

Word count might have been higher
I like how you use 'logic' terminology and in general more complex language than that of usual templates
No significant grammar errors but if you have tie to check try to apply your SC skills:
Finally, the author assumes that the consumption trend will continue in the future based on historical information.
based incorrectly modifies future here :D
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