TobaccoRoad4590 Was in a similar position last year and chose Kenan-Flagler. I've been keeping tabs on recruitment at Duke this year so here's my $0.02:
1. Consulting: Duke over Kenan-Flagler (KF has people going into all 3 MBBs this year, but that number is lower than at Duke. Duke would provide a much clearer path to MBB.)
2. Finance: Kenan-Flagler over Duke (All the first years at KF that wanted a Finance/IB internship have received on - the same cannot be said about Duke this year. This may just be an anomaly, but my experience is what I'm basing this advice on.)
3. Tech (PM): Duke over Kenan-Flagler (The Duke brand provides a clearer path to Google, Microsoft, Facebook, etc. Core tech recruiters at KF are Dell and Cisco. Amazon is brand agnostic so its a level playing field. For other hot tech start-ups - think Spotify, Robinhood, etc. - you'd need to leverage your brand and network to get an interview or referral, so I would again lean towards Duke.)
4. Tech (Non-PM): Both offer similar opportunities
5. Healthcare, Real Estate: Kenan-Flagler over Duke
Your analysis above is spot on; however, I would disagree about the national/regional program piece though. I have been able to find alums to chat with spread all over the country in all the large orgs in the country.
Happy to chat more if you'd like.
Edit: The Dean's Program at Kenan-Flagler is certainly not worth sacrificing the Duke brand. It has no bearing whatsoever on recruiting and also - and don't take this the wrong way - the people in the Dean's List are selected quite arbitrarily. You will see several accomplished people not part of this program and several undeserving people make the list. It;s not like you're provided access to an exclusive network - your Kenan-Flagler (and UNC) network is your network so I would not give consideration to this at all. There are, of course, legitimate reasons to choose Kenan-Flagler over Duke, but The Dean's List ain't it.