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rockzom
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Happy to provide some more thoughts.

- You don't have to be certain about what you want to do, but you have to be committed to the due diligence process on the front end. I could write for hours about this, but there are basically four types of MBA programs at the elite level when it comes to your career goals/the hiring process:

1) Columbia - Very paternalistic, the career services office gets highly involved, they have been known to even bring people in "off the record" to coach them on their career goals.

2) Guarded - For some reason people forget about employment #s when they look at the rankings, but now that schools care a great deal about getting students jobs when they graduate. So if someone says they want to work at McKinsey and that seems unlikely based on prior experience, the school is going to be extremely hesitant about admitting you, because if you strike out in the job market, that goes on their scorecard. Employment #s are just as important as GMAT and GPA when it comes to the rankings. So many schools fit this very "guarded" group, where they get skittish if someone doesn't seem likely to go out and land a job (young applicants are fighting an uphill battle at these schools, because they have less experience to impress recruiters, they are often presumed to be less skilled and comfortable in a hiring interview due to generational gaps, and they tend to be more naive about getting from point A to point B ... plus there could be generational or age biases built into certain company hiring cultures, which has a trickle down effect on the admissions practices of the schools).

3) Diligence - Many schools (Tuck comes to mind) are very aware of and honest about the fact that there is no certainty and they kind of assume you might do something other than what you outline. But what they want - in fact demand - is that you display an understanding of the process at a high level. Are you aware enough that recruiters might not take such a "what a wonderful world" life about the MBA being a journey of self-discovery? If recruiters won't afford you that luxury, schools can't either. It's a professional program and that demands that every involved approach it as such. In fact, it is funny that you mentioned law school, because arguably he biggest flaw of the JD system is that they don't make people put a serious check on their career goals at the outset. Thus, the world is full of miserable lawyers with $150K of debt.

4) Not as worried about what you say you will do. You've got a couple of schools like HBS and Sloan that just aren't worried about what you *intend* to do. They don't find career goals to be very predictive of ability or ultimate success, so they don't bother with the exercise, regardless of whether or not they are genuinely concerned about it (the Columbia/Guarded group) or they just want you to do your due diligence (the others).

- To reiterate everything I just said and also answer your other point, it is not an "early stage" degree the way a JD or MD is. It can be, if someone has accelerated quickly and run out of pre-MBA growth opportunities. You have to exhaust your capacity to learn, grow, and improve pre-MBA or they go "come on, have some patience." Consider this: with a JD or an MD, it doesn't matter what you've done prior. You can be 22 or 42 and either way, you are hitting the reset button. You will receive your academic training, you will take a credentialing exam, and you will begin an apprenticeship in that industry (junior associate/clerk in law, residency in medicine). In other words, the school only has to start your training. With a business school, the school has the burden of doing everything. They have to train you, mint you, validate you, and prepare you to be an executive leader. Nobody involved has the luxury of treating this like an exercise in finding your path. I think the way you have reframed this for yourself makes a lot of sense. Get to that "walk" stage and then an MBA will allow you to run and help others run as well.

- Your new school list makes sense to me. You'll just need to ramp up that maturity in all of the apps, regardless!

Glad to be of help.
-PL