MartyMurray
Real estate broker: Some people in Country X have postponed home purchases because of this week's news stories claiming that real estate prices will probably fall soon. But to get a good deal on a new home, a better strategy is to buy precisely when the media is advising everyone to sell. Widespread pessimistic news stories encourage panics that put downward pressure on real estate prices.
The broker's conclusion is the following:
to get a good deal on a new home, a better strategy is to buy precisely when the media is advising everyone to sell
Notice what the broker means by "a better strategy." The broker's point is that buying "precisely" now is a better strategy than postponing home purchases.
The support for the conclusion is the following:
Widespread pessimistic news stories encourage panics that put downward pressure on real estate prices.
We see that the broker has reasoned that, since pessimistic news stories serve to put downward pressure on real estate prices, a strategy better than postponing is to buy "precisely when the media is advising everyone to sell," meaning now.
The real estate broker's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it
The correct answer will accurately describe an aspect of the argument that can be considered a flaw.
A. overlooks the possibility that Country X's real estate prices would probably fall soon even without any pessimistic news stories
What this choice describes is not a flaw because the argument doesn't have to address this possibility to work.
After all, even if prices would fall soon without pessimistic news stories, the fact of the matter is that there have been pessimistic news stories, and thus prices can be expected to fall because of those stories.
Eliminate.
B. assumes, without providing justification, that whether a person becomes a homebuyer or not depends heavily on personal financial factors
What this choice describes is not a flaw in the argument because the argument doesn't do it.
After all, the argument doesn't conclude anything about people becoming homebuyers or not or about personal financial factors. Rather, the conclusion is about what people who are planning to buy homes should do.
So, it doesn't assume anything about the backstory of what people becoming homebuyers depends on.
Eliminate.
C. takes for granted that the recent news stories are based on careful statistical research
What this choice describes is not a flaw in the argument because the argument doesn't do it.
After all, the argument does not depend on the assumption that the news stories are based on careful research. After all, regardless of what the stories are based on, as long as they are pessimistic and therefore cause downward pressure on prices, the conclusion makes sense.
Eliminate.
D. overlooks the possibility that widespread pessimistic news stories about real estate prices usually drive those prices to very low levels
What this choice describes is not a flaw because, if it is possible that widespread pessimistic news stories about real estate prices usually drive those prices to very low levels, then the argument works well. After all, the point of the argument is that people should buy when pessimistic news stories come out because prices will drop.
So, if prices may go to "very low levels," the advice is even better.
Eliminate.
E. takes for granted that widespread pessimistic news stories about real estate prices usually affect those prices quickly
As discussed above, the argument's conclusion is that, to get a good deal on a new home, a better strategy (than postponing) is to buy precisely when the media is advising everyone to sell.
The reasoning is that such news stories will serve to drive prices downward. So, "precisely" now, when the stories have come out, is a great time to buy.
In arriving at that conclusion, the broker has ignored a key fact: it could be that people are postponing home purchases not because that they are not aware that such news stories serve to drive prices downward but rather because it's a good idea to postpone home purchases now because it will take time for the stories to affect prices.
In other words, in recommending that people buy now because pessimistic news stories drive down prices, the broker has taken for granted that prices will drop "precisely when the media is advising everyone to sell," in other words, "quickly."
Keep.
Correct answer: E
Dear Marty,
Thank you for explaining. I have a doubt on the red highlighted portion above.
If the broker reasons that pessimistic news coverage will put downward pressure on the real estate price, then wouldn't it be logical to buy real estate when the prices are further down i.e. at a later time? Why would people buy it now? Given that the prices will pushed downwards in the future, whether quickly or after several months should not matter. I'm having a hard time getting my head around this.
Please correct my understanding.
Thanks