AshutoshB wrote:
Reformer: A survey of police departments keeps track of the national crime rate, which is the annual number of crimes per 100,000 people. The survey shows no significant reduction in the crime rate in the past 20 years, but the percentage of the population in prison has increased substantially, and public expenditure on prisons has grown at an alarming rate. This demonstrates that putting more people in prison cannot help to reduce crime.
A flaw in the reformer's argument is that it
(A) infers without justification that because of the national crime rate has increased, the number of crimes reported by each police department has increased
(B) ignores the possibility that the crime rate would have significantly increased if it had not been for the greater rate of imprisonment
(C) overlooks the possibility that the population has increased significantly over the past 20 years
(D) presumes, without providing a warrant, that alternative measures for reducing crime would be more effective than imprisonment
(E) takes for granted that the number of prisoners must be proportional to the number of crimes committed
LSAT
Answer here is (B) only.
Premises: National crime rate - annual number of crimes per 100,000 people.
Survey shows no significant reduction in the crime rate in the past 20 years (say it was 1% i.e. 1000 crimes per 100,000 people and still is the same)
Percentage of the population in prison has increased substantially (Say if .2% people (200) were in prison before, now .5% are (500))
(Assume the population to be the same in both cases because we are dealing with just percentages)
Conclusion: Putting more people in prison cannot help to reduce crime.
Reformer says that even though a higher proportion of the population is in prison, crime is still the same. So putting people in prison does not reduce crime.
What is the flaw here? What would the crime rate be if people were not put in prison? Perhaps putting people in prison is a deterrent. What if the availability of resources is reducing which is making people more prone to criminal activity? But still the crime rate has been maintained at the same 1%. The author is ignoring this possibility (not certainty, just that this is a possibility too and has he considered it?)
That is why (B) is correct.
(A) infers without justification that because of the national crime rate has increased, the number of crimes reported by each police department has increasedIncorrect. The national crime rate has remained same. Ignore.
(C) overlooks the possibility that the population has increased significantly over the past 20 yearsWe are talking only about percentages (rate) not the actual numbers. The crime rate is calculated as crimes per 100,000 people. We are not discussing the absolute number of crimes. Hence actual increase in population is irrelevant. Even if population has doubled, the number of crimes would have doubled too to keep the rate same.
(D) presumes, without providing a warrant, that alternative measures for reducing crime would be more effective than imprisonmentHe doesn't say that alternative measure would be more effective. Incorrect.
(E) takes for granted that the number of prisoners must be proportional to the number of crimes committedHe does not assume that "number of prisoners must be proportional to the number of crimes committed". He says that crime rate has stayed the same and number of prisoners has increased. Look at our figures above. Crime rate is still 1% but number of prisoners has gone up from .2% to .5%.
His entire argument is that though number of prisoners has increased, the number of crimes committed are still the same.
Hence this is incorrect.
You are likely confusing it with this logic: Crime rate has remained the same but the police has become more effective and that is why more people are caught by them and put in prison. Note that this is also not the flaw. The author is agreeing with it. His problem is that if the police is becoming more effective and catching more criminals and punishing them, still why isn't prison a deterrent for people? Why are still the same number of crimes committed? Hence putting people in prison isn't helping reduce crime.
Answer (B)
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