siris wrote:
The official driving variable for the order of the invites is the order of the files being read (if you want another confirmation look at yesterday's post on their admissions blog). Therefore you have two cases :
- Your file has been read and you don't have an invitation : 0 % (+ waitlist odds)
- Your file has not been read and you don't have an invitation (obviously) : 14 % (+ waitlist odds)
Its as simple as that.
Sure, but the two cases have different probabilities. Before any applications have been reviewed, there's a 100% chance of being in the second scenario, thus 14% chance. After all applications have been reviewed, there's a 100% chance of being in the first scenario, thus a 0% chance.
As we get later in the cycle and more applications have been reviewed, the likelihood of being in the first scenario outweighs the likelihood of being in the second scenario. So the odds kmcduw put out there are actually right.
The probability function is actually very simple: It is the probability that your application has not yet been reviewed times the probability of any given application getting an invite (14%). So that the start you have 100% x 14% = 14%. At the end you have 0% x 14% = 0%. If you think half have been looked at and you haven't heard you have 50% x 14% = 7%. And so on.
I know you guys are all implying this, but thought I would just spell it out for anyone who was interested.