The town of Enderton is located in an area where forest fires are quit

The town of Enderton is located in an area where forest fires are quite common. During dry periods and periods of persistent winds, when even a spark can result in a fire that spreads over many acres, the danger of fire there is particularly serious. To help prevent forest fires in the area, the town government plans to post a ban on outdoor fires when such conditions prevail.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest indication that the town's plan will have at most a minor effect on the annual number of forest fires in the Enderton area?

This is cause-n-effect Weaken type question and in particular it is 'Weakening the premise' type.
Premise: a spark (say from outdoor fires) ---> forest fires (X-->Y)
Conclusion: Ban the outdoor fires

If we weaken the Premise then conclusion will be invalidated.

For weakening: If X->Y Then,
i) X -/-> Y (X does not lead to Y)
ii) Y --> X (action is in opposite/reverse direction)
iii) Z --> Y (some other factor leads to Y)
iv) Z --> X,Y (X and Y are co-related but not causally)
v) X --> -Y (Y is not occurring in spite of X)
vi) -X --> Y (Y is occurring even when X is not occurring)
vii) Given Data is not correct or has error.

A. Most of the tourists who visit the forests surrounding Enderton also visit Enderton itself - Irrelevant.

B. Although there are county fire fighters available to combat forest fires in the area, Enderton itself has no professional fire fighters - Doe not affect the argument or in least strengthen it mildly. If outdoor fires are responsible and Professional fire-fighters are few then banning the o/d fires will help.

C. Very few forest fires in the Enderton area result from fires deliberately set by arsonists - Irrelevant. Even if very few fires are caused by Arsonists then also we are not sure about the fires caused by outdoor fires.

D. Nearly all forest fires in the Enderton area are the result of lightning strikes - A third factor causes the forest fires therefore banning o/d fires will have no or little effect.

E. The number of forest fires in the Enderton area has not increased significantly in the last several years - Irrelevant.

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Plan: Ban on the outdoor deliberate fire.
Anticipated Outcome: Negligible forest Fire

Reasoning: Find a possibility in which forest fires can be attributed to something other than deliberate Outdoor fire.


A. Most of the tourists who visit the forests surrounding Enderton also visit Enderton itself.
OUT OF SCOPE: as the statement does not mention about deliberate fire set by the tourists.

B. Although there are county fire fighters available to combat forest fires in the area, Enderton
itself has no professional fire fighters and deliberate Outdoor fire.
OUT OF SCOPE: the statement does not focus on the cause effect relation of forest fire and

C. Very few forest fires in the Enderton area result from fires deliberately set by arsonists.
BAIT: though the statement supposedly attributes a few forest fires to deliberately set by arsonists, it has baited the reader on the word "arsonists", the term defined for group of people ( culprits) who deliberately set the property of other people on fire. Hence, the answer failed to consider all the people who set fire outside , though deliberately, for barbecues and other entertainment.

D. Nearly all forest fires in the Enderton area are the result of lightning strikes.
Yup a true cause effect : Right answer.

E. The number of forest fires in the Enderton area has not increased significantly in the last
several years.
OUT OF SCOPE: the statement does not focus on the cause effect relation of forest fire and

REgds
Sid

Assumption: outdoor fires are the main causes of forest fires.

D would weaken this assumption

D - Since almost all the fires are caused by lightning.

Question asks us to :
find which of the option provides the strongest indication that the town's plan will have at most a minor effect :

in simplified form :
asking for a reason which will fail the Government's plan >> find a reason which will prove that posting a ban on outdoor fire will not be a useful decision

Choice (D) suggests that "nearly all" forest fires are caused due to lightning strikes, which implies that ban on outdoor fire wont help to prevent forest fires.

Ans : D

D. No cause but Effect still exists, hence weaken.

Got this question wrong during my mock test. Interpreted as find a reason which supports the government plan in some way. And selected A. Now, after understanding the question its a clear D

Imo D
Lightning cause fires in Enderton so the plan to ban outside fire in forest during period of dry and persistent wind will not have any effect on the fires .There will be fire for sure as we can not control nature.

If that's a Weaken question, why does it have a "Strengthen" tag?

Hi Bunuel, this is a GMATPrep question, please tag. Thanks!

Hello AjiteshArun,

I would like your opinion on WHY choice C is wrong ?

Regards

­Gmat Ninja , Veritas Karishma ,AndrewN  Why option C is wrong? here FEW fires has been set by outsiders. So it is also weakening the plan. Or between option C and D,  option D is correct as it is strongly weakening the argument as MOST fires has been set by the lighting. 

shailendra010786 Iwillget770
The reason why option C is wrong is because no where in the stimulus is it mentioned that the arsonists are the main cause of fires in Enderton. So it doesn't have any effect (weaken/strengthen/what so ever) on the argument author is making. However, if you look at the option D, it brings in a new information that most fires are caused by the lightning and thus even if the city bans the outdoor fires, it'd still not work. Option C could've worked had it said, most fires are caused by arsonists, then again banning outdoor fires wouldn't have done anything to the problem. But the way C is worded now, it has no effect on the argument and thus not the correct answer choice.
Hope it helps.
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