Hi Usernamevisible,Your instinct about "chosen" isn't wrong, but here's the exact place it goes off track:
your numerator and denominator are counting two different kinds of things.Look at what your own denominator represents. When you write
10^3 = 1000, you're counting
ordered triples - (2,6,7), (2,7,6), (6,2,7) are all sitting in there as separate outcomes. That's the only way the
1000 outcomes come out equally likely, which is what a probability ratio needs.
So the rule is simple:
whatever the denominator counts, the numerator must count the same way.- Denominator counts ordered - numerator must count ordered.
-
10C3 = 120 counts
unordered sets - it treats {2,6,7} as one thing and throws away its
6 arrangements.
Mixing them (
120/
1000) silently compares a bag of unordered sets against a pile of ordered triples. That's the inconsistency Bunuel was pointing at. To fix it, either multiply your numerator back up by 3! to make it ordered -
10C3 × 3! = 720 - or use the direct ordered count
10 × 9 × 8 = 720. Either way:
720/1000 = 18/25.
(Going fully unordered is a trap of its own, because unordered outcomes aren't equally likely - {2,2,5} happens less often than {2,6,7} - so you can't just divide counts. Ordered/ordered keeps everything clean.)
Lock it in with a tiny versionPick
2 integers from just {
1,
2,
3}, and ask: probability they're different?
- Ordered total:
3 ×
3 =
9 outcomes.
- Ordered favorable:
3 ×
2 =
6. Probability =
6/9 = 2/3.
Now try your mixed way:
3C2 = 3 on top,
9 on the bottom -
3/9 = 1/3. You can list all
9 pairs by hand and count the "different" ones - you'll find
6, not
3. The unordered numerator dropped every reversed pair. Same slip, just small enough to see.
Answer: AUsernamevisible
Doubt -
The question says that three integers are "chosen" between 0 and 9, which to me suggests a combination, i.e., order does not matter. In that case, I would use 10C3 for the favorable cases. Since the denominator must represent all possible outcomes under the same selection process, shouldn't it be 10^3
thus giving 10c3/10^3