We have to look for X and Y among the options such that
If X is the case, then Y must also be the case.
The passage provides one if-then statement:
if we find that A's campaign elicits positive responses from the focus group, we will not ask B for a campaign
There is no other if-then statement, nor is there any if-then relationship presented in any other way in the passage.
So, it is quite natural to start looking for this only relationship in the options. So, when I solved this question, I first looked for X by looking for "A's campaign elicits positive responses from the focus group". I could find it as the first option. Nice!
Then, I looked for Y by looking for "will not ask B for a campaign". There is no such option. Bummer!
Then, given that my current version of X doesn't have a corresponding Y, I had to change my X.
I went option by option.
Option 2:
X: believes A's campaign will decrease the company's name recognition
If this is X, what must also be the case?
I have no idea from the passage. The passage doesn't say what the company will necessarily do in this case. The passage just says, "we might ask Agency B to design an alternate campaign".
You might think, "If the company is already considering asking Agency B, why wouldn't the company ask B if it believes A's campaign will decrease the company's name recognition"
I agree that there is a good chance of the company's asking B for a campaign. However, I cannot say that this MUST BE the case. Right?
So, I will rule out this possibility for X since there is no corresponding Y.
Option 3:
X: asks B for a campaign
Many people will have difficulty imagining this option in place of X since a similar idea appears in the 'then' part in the passage. That's what makes this question difficult.
However, frankly, I didn't have a difficulty here since I know that given "if A then B" we can infer that "if not B, not A" (How can we infer this? To understand this, you'll have to understand sufficient and necessary conditions deeply. To understand these conditions deeply, you may refer to the recording of my webinar on necessary and sufficient conditions on my youtube channel)
I knew from the passage that
if the company finds that A's campaign elicits positive responses from the focus group, the company will not ask B for a campaign.
And now if I consider the scenario that the company asks B for a campaign, then it must be the case that the company finds that A's campaign does not elicit positive responses from the focus group.
Otherwise, the company would not ask B for a campaign. Right?
Now, I'll look for "the company finds that A's campaign does not elicit positive responses from the focus group" in the options.
I find that the fifth option fits the bill.
Thus, I have my answer.
I hope this helps. If you have any questions or doubts regarding my solution, please feel free to ask.