Jerz
Personally I don't think any top 15 school is a "safe bet" based solely on GMAT, GPA and work experience. Even with an acceptance rate of 30%, Duke still rejects the vast majority of applicants. So do I know a lot of people here at Kellogg or on gmatclub that were accepted to Duke and chose to attend higher ranked programs? Yes. But do I think that you'll get accepted to Duke if you have great stats but don't convincingly portray Duke as a school you're truly interested in? Absolutely not.
I agree with this opinion. One can't say a school is a "safety" school until he or she actually gets into that program. Then he or she actually earns the right to say it's a safety or not.
Many applicants apply to various bschools thinking he or she would be a lock at that bschool, and many more people apply to higher ranked schools just because he or she actually scored higher on GMAT than original expectation and one mistakenly ends up believing that ONE FACTOR alone suddenly changes one's candidacy by significant degree. Bschools look for many different criteria and certain schools look for different things in an applicant. This is especially true for top bschool programs.
Fuqua is a great program with great resources, faculty and excellent student body. Many of its current and former students would have been successful at other top bschool programs, and vice versa.
Also when comparing one program to another, one can't say that Fuqua must be a comparable program to Mendoza, Foster and Kelley because its acceptance rate is in the similar range. Although these 3 programs have excellent reputation, Fuqua probably attracts candidates with better profile overall compared to the other 3 programs. (reasons - for example, high caliber students are attracted to its high ranked HC program etc) Therefore, one should use different standards to compare school A from school B.