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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios
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 Updated on: 06 Jul 2022, 21:10
Originally posted by Bunuel on 21 Jan 2013, 08:18.
Last edited by bb on 06 Jul 2022, 21:10, edited 47 times in total.
Work in progress

GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

We will try to run different scenarios with GMAT Prep Software to find out whether various myth about scoring algorithm are legit.

CHECK NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios


Reports from the Real GMAT:

Added a few points to my verbal score: https://gmatclub.com/forum/600-to-740-al ... 47029.html


1. What is the importance of the first 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to disprove the myth the way OG/GMAC positions it: the first 10 questions are not critical
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly); then we will attempt to answer the remaining 27 questions correctly (not guess)

Result: Q38 (48th percentile - ouch) with only 10 wrong answers
Analysis: obviously something is not right with the myth about the first 10 questions. They appear to be very important on the Quant. If you miss the first 10 (probably not a very realistic scenario for most) you have no way of climbing out of the hole - almost all questions that were offered to me were generally easy/medium difficulty. Let's try a different scenario next to check this myth (we'll miss the last 10 questions). Also interesting to note, when simulated in the previous GMAT Prep version, this scenario resulted in Q41 (so there have been changes in the scoring algorithms of the GMAT Prep).
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1st percentile. Total score: 380 - 10th percentile
Questions: 20PS and 17 DS. Also, see what question topics were encountered in this scenario:




2. What is the importance of the last 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of the last 10 questions and if it equals the important of the first 10
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 27 Q questions correctly and then will answer the remaining 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly).

Result: Q50, 92nd percentile - Nicely done though not great. I think it is possible to get Q51 with 10 incorrect ones.
Analysis: The questions were much harder this time with some new topics/types appearing on the test such as coordinate geometry DS. Conclusion: the last 10 don't count as much as the first 10. This myth is True (as long as you can get the first 27 right). Please note that I have not guessed the last 10 but rather answered them incorrectly (which means I still had to solve those questions too). If you are guessing, you will most likely get a higher score.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" (again) and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1st percentile. Total score: 470 (90 points higher than when we missed the first 10 questions)
Questions: 20PS and 17 DS. Also, see what question topics were encountered in this scenario:



3. What is the importance of the middle 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of the middle 10 questions and see how it compares to the results of the previous 2 experiments
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 14 Q questions correctly; then I will answer incorrectly the following 10 questions, and will answer the remaining 13 questions correctly.

Result: Q49, 85th percentile - not as good of a result as in the case of missing the last 10 questions but it was much less effort (fewer hard questions than in the second case)
Analysis: The questions were not much easier than in the second scenario above even though I have made 10 consecutive mistakes. So, it may be a slightly better value in terms of effort/score but not by far
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "D" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 1st percentile. (Interestingly enough, it was a slightly worse result than "E"). Total score: 450



4. What is the penalty if I miss every third question?

Experiment: I will try to test a scenario in which a test takers answers every third question incorrectly (e.g. 3, 6, 9, etc. Thus giving themselves an extra 2 mins on quant). This scenario will simulate someone who takes 3 mins instead of 2 per question and then guesses every third question. Please note that this is the worst case scenario (we do not get any guesses right)
Methodology: Every 3rd questions answered incorrectly. So, 13 incorrect and 24 correct answers.
Results: Q49, 85th percentile
Analysis: Slightly lower score than in the case of missing the last 10 questions but it was much less effort in getting here(fewer hard questions than in the second or third scenarios I have tested). So far this is the best value in terms of effort/final score
Total Score: This time every question in the verbal section was answered as "C" this time and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1st percentile. Total score: 460, 23rd percentile.




5. Best Guessing Strategy: Part I - What if we guess a bunch of questions in the middle?

Experiment: I will attempt 3 different scenarios that will examine guessing strategies to figure out where the time should be invested.
Methodology: First 10 questions answered correctly, then GUESSED the next 17 questions (answered C to all of them and got 4 out of 17 correct) and finally answered the remaining 10 questions correctly.

Result: Q46, 73rd percentile.
Analysis: This is a pretty similar to the scenario above where we tried to figure out the importance of the middle 10 questions; missing 3 more (13 wrong vs 10 wrong) resulted in a lower score by 3 points (46 vs. 49).
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "B" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 420, 16th percentile.
Questions: 21PS and 16 DS.



6. Best Guessing Strategy: Part II - guess every third question

Experiment: I will try to test a scenario in which a test takers GUESSES every other question (e.g. 2, 4, 6, etc). I was answering C to all even numbered question and guessed correctly 3 out of 18

Result: Q40, 55th percentile. (22 correct answers and 15 incorrect answers, I guessed 3 questions correctly.)
Analysis: Not sure what I was expecting guessing every other question. I guess I got the 55th percentile (half the ultimate score but I also only invested half the effort and gottend double the time to answer my other questions). So far, I don' think this is the best strategy in terms of guessing since my goal would be to get the most return for the least amount of effort. However, I do think this score is too low to be seriously considered by anyone.
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "A" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 380, 10th percentile.



7. Best Guessing Strategy Part III - Variable Guessing

Experiment: first 10 questions answered correctly, GUESSED the next 9 questions (answered C to all of them, guessed 2 out of 9), then answered the next 9 questions correctly and finally GUESSED the remaining 9 questions (answered C to all of them, guessed 2 out of 9). So, 23 correct, 14 incorrect.

Result: Q49, 85th percentile. (23 correct answers and 14 incorrect answers, I guessed 3 questions correctly.)
Analysis: I was amazed to see Q49 as my final score. So far I think this is the best guessing strategy. It has resulted into the highest score (49) with 14 incorrect answers (compare that to scenario #5 above where I guessed the 17 middle questions and gotten 4 of them correct. I made 13 mistakes mistakes on that test but the final score was only 46. In this scenario I still only solved half the questions (guessed the other half). However, that's pretty darn good for solving only half the questions.
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V9, 2 percentile. Total score: 470, 26th percentile.



8. PS vs DS: what is the importance of DS questions?


Experiment: first 10 questions answered correctly. After that, I answered incorrectly to 12 DS questions only. So, 25 correct and 12 incorrect answers (all DS).

Result: Q50, 92th percentile.
Analysis:
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1 percentile. Total score: 470, 26th percentile.



9. PS vs DS: what is the importance of PS questions?


Experiment: first 10 questions answered correctly. After that, I answered incorrectly to 12 PS questions only. So, 25 correct and 12 incorrect answers (all PS).

Result: Q49, 85th percentile.
Analysis:
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V11, 3rd percentile. Total score: 490, 31st percentile.



9 and 10. Importance of answering ALL the questions in time.


Experiment: two scenarios:
A. Answered first 30 questions correctly and the remainder 7 questions incorrectly. Result Q50, 92nd percentile.
B. Answered first 30 questions correctly and didn't answer the remainder 7 questions at all (ran out of time). Result Q45, 71st percentile.
Analysis: As we can see it's extremely important to finish the test and manage to answer ALL the questions in time.

Do you have any questions or ideas what you would like to try?
I will be running a few more scenarios - feel free to suggest what other scenarios would be interesting to test. Thank you!

Important Clarification: we have a strong reason to believe that even though GMAT Prep is the closest algorithm to the GMAT, it is most likely not identical. Some of these scenarios may result into a different outcome when attempted on the real test. We so far have no reports to confirm or dismiss these results based on the test day experience.


CHECK NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios


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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios
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21 Jan 2013, 09:20

GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios -- VERBAL



1) What if you get all the LAST 11 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

 All the last 11 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V38 ( 83 percentile, not bad after getting 11 questions incorrect in a row)

Analysis:

The 11 incorrect questions at the end of the Verbal section did not bring the score down greatly. It is unlikely that someone after attempting first 30 correctly would go so wrong in the last 11. The results show that the momentum gained by the first 30 questions is not significantly beaten by the last 11.

Conclusion:

Can we conclude that one should not worry about the last 11 questions, probably not. But, a few glitches at the end of the test would not destroy your hopes of getting a good score. This will be more clear from the results below.

2) What if you get some of the MID 11 questions (I took 11 to 20) incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

 The MIDWAY 11 questions (11 to 20) incorrect and others correct.

Result:

Again V38 ( 83 percentile, once again, not bad after getting 11 questions incorrect in a row)

Analysis:

The 11 incorrect questions at the mid gave the same results as the previous experiment. The results show that the momentum lost by the mid 11 questions could be gained by answering remaining questions correctly.

Conclusion:

Again can we conclude that one should not worry about the mid 11 questions, probably not. But, the results show that you should not loose hope if you got a few questions incorrect somewhere in the midway.

3) What if you get all the FIRST 11 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

 All the first 11 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V22 ( 27 percentile, not a good score in verbal. I was surprised by this result)

Analysis:

The first 11 questions literally spoiled the score. Furthermore, even the successful attempts of remaining questions could not recover from the damage done by the first 11 questions.

Conclusion:

Once again can we conclude that one should worry about the first 11 questions, definitely yes. The results show that first 11 are very important to your score. We considered an extreme scenario here; it is highly unlikely that someone would perform this way during the test. Therefore I considered somewhat realistic scenarios in the next experiments.

4) What if you get all the LAST 6 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

 All the last 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V44 ( 97 percentile, an awesome score)

Analysis:

The last 6 incorrect questions were insignificant in bringing down the score.

Conclusion:

We can confidently say that if you are able to solve first 35 questions correctly, you have reached the 94+ percentile mark. Even if something bad happens in the last 6 questions, you will still be happy to see your score.

5) What if you get all the MID 6 questions(21 to 26) incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

 All the MID 6 questions(21 to 26) incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V44 ( 97 percentile, wow again the same awesome score)

Analysis:

With the same results, the middle 6 incorrect questions were insignificant in bringing down the score. Moreover, the placement of these 6 incorrect questions seems to have no effect on the overall score.

Conclusion:

We can say that if you are able to solve first 35 questions correctly and the other middle 6 questions incorrectly, you have reached the 94+ percentile mark. Can we be sure about the fact that getting 35 questions correct in Verbal would give you a score of around V44 no matter what; the answer is no. The following experiments will prove why.

6) What if you get all the FIRST 6 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

 All the FIRST 6 questions incorrect and others correct.

Result:

V33 ( 66 percentile, a good score, but definitely not an awesome score)

Analysis:

Getting first 6 questions incorrect is more realistic than getting the first 11 incorrect. As compared to the last two results the first 6 question greatly damaged the overall verbal score.

Conclusion:

The first incorrect 6 questions can destroy someones' hope of reaching even the 70+ percentile mark in verbal, no matter how well he/ she performs on the remaining questions. The apparent conclusion is that one should not take the initial questions lightly.


7) What if you get EQUALLY SPACED 7 questions incorrect ?



Testing Scenario:

7 EQUALLY SPACED questions incorrect with a gap of 5 correct questions in-between. Therefore, the incorrect questions are 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 41, the rest are correct.

Result:

V42 ( 96 percentile, My actual GMAT score)

Analysis:

A good score indeed, even after breaking the consistency after every 5 correct questions. One incorrect question between 10 correctly answered questions has not significantly lowered the overall score.

Conclusion:

The results are inline with our assumption that the more questions you solve consistently the higher your score. In testing scenarios 4 and 5 we got V44 where we solved 35 and 20 questions correct in a row respectively. In this test there was a small breaks in consistency, so we got a slightly lower score.

8) What if you get ALTERNATE questions incorrect/correct ?



Testing Scenario:

Alternate questions incorrect starting with first question incorrect. So, every odd question is incorrect and every even question is correct.

Result:

V16 ( 10 percentile)

Analysis:

This is a somewhat expected result. With around half questions incorrect and none correct in a row will in fact, result in a bad score. Some say that the first question that you receive is of medium difficulty level, a 50 percentile or a 500 level question. Moreover, if you get one question correct then incorrect probably you will maintain the level. The result was not a 50%ile score but a 10 %ile score.

Conclusion:

From the analysis we can conclude that alternate correct and incorrect question would gradually lower your percentile.

9 i) What if you get All SC questions incorrect: Test1 ?

I have conducted two tests to prove the point that SC is not individually adaptive and the location of SC question matters more than the number of SC questions that you got incorrect.

Testing Scenario:

 All theSentence Correction questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got SC questions at following question numbers: 1, 4,6, 7, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 23, 24, 27, 29, 30, 31, 36, 41. 17 SC questions in total.

Result:

V25 ( 35 percentile)

9 ii) What if you get ALL SC questions incorrect: Test2 ?



Testing Scenario:

 All theSentence Correction questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got SC questions at following question numbers: 6, 7, 8, 13, 19, 23, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 ,40 ,41. 17 SC questions in total.

Result:

V35 ( 74 percentile)

Analysis:

In both the tests I got all the 17 SC questions incorrect, but the different in the two scores was huge. In the first started with an SC question, moreover 3 out of first six were SC.

Conclusion:

SC is not individually adaptive and where you got an SC question matters more than the number of SC questions that you got incorrect. So, initial SC questions (of any other initial questions) are really more important for your overall score.

10 i) What if you get All RC questions incorrect: Test1 ?

I have conducted two tests to prove the point that RC is not individually adaptive and the location of RC question matters more than the number of RC questions that you got incorrect.

Testing Scenario:

 All theReading Comprehension questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got RC questions at following question numbers: 10-13, 16-18, 23-25, 33-35. 13 RC questions in total.

Result:

V36 ( 79 percentile)

10 ii) What if you get ALL RC questions incorrect: Test2 ?



Testing Scenario:

 All theReading Comprehension questions incorrect anywhere in the test. In this iteration I got RC questions at following question numbers: 4-6, 13-15, 18-20, 33-36. 13 SC questions in total.

Result:

V33 ( 66 percentile)

Analysis:

In both the tests I got all the 13 RC questions incorrect, but the different in the two scores was not very significant good enough. In the first test I encountered the first RC passage at the 10th question, but in the second it came early at 4th. This could be one of the reasons for the score difference.

Conclusion:

like SC, RC is also not individually adaptive and again where you got an RC question matters more than the number of RC questions that you got incorrect. So, initial RC questions (of any other initial questions) are really more important for your overall score. By observing the results we can see that scenario 10 resulted in a better score overall than scenario 9. The possible reason for this observation could be that the number of SC questions (17) is greater than that of RC questions (13).

11) What if you marked the last answer choice, but did not click submit and confirm, and the allotted time for the section gets over?



Testing Scenario:

 Answered 40 verbal questions and marked the last question and waited for the time to finish.

Result:

The result was a positive one, favoring of the test taker. The test will register your answer choice and will not reward you any penalty.

Analysis/ Conclusion:

As soon as you reach the last question it's better to mark one answer choice and then attempt the that question, so even if you are not able to determine the correct answer in time, the question would still be considered for your overall score and you will receive any penalty on your score.

Quant Guessing Strategy



Testing Scenarios:



Marked the same option in all the questions.

Quant Guessing Strategy
Test #Marked ChoiceCorrectScore
1Marked All Bs26
2Marked All Bs46
3Marked All As76
4Marked All Es76
5Marked All Ds76
6Marked All Cs96
7Marked All Cs96
8Marked All Cs106
9Marked All Ds106
10Marked All Cs116
11Marked All Cs139
12Marked All Bs56
13Marked All Ds96
14Marked All Ds76
15Marked All Cs107

Analysis/ Conclusion :



Results from 15 tests show that on average an Option 'C' carries a higher probability of being correct and option B carries the lowest. I tested 'C' option the 5 times after I saw 13 correct "flukes" in the quant section. I think the reason is the DS questions in which many answers may in fact be 'C'. Another conclusion that we can derive from our results is that if you guess all the answers you are likely to get a '0' percentile no matter what answer you mark. But if you have to guess one or two and you have no idea/ time for the question mark 'C'. After the next tests it seems that D is the next after 'C' while guessing in quant. In test 15 again C resulted in 10 correct questions and a score of 7. Once again marking all Cs resulted in more number of correct answers as compared to others.

I will be posting results from new test scenarios. If you have any other interesting suggestions please let me know, I'll be happy to run the test.



Thanks,

Vercules

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21 Jan 2013, 09:28
Great work.

Scenario 1: 7 or 8 correct in first 10 question. Then ,
- how many consecutive wrong answers will not allow to score 90+ %?
- And where it effects the most? For e.g. 5 consecutive wrong between 10 & 20 or 20 & 30 or 30 & 37?

Scenario 2: Does any particular type of question (s) gives us any indication of our performance (during exam)? For e.g. Probability or P&C question
in exam indicates that we have reached 700+ level
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21 Jan 2013, 09:56
another scenario could be 2 right one wrong (the third) regardless the difficulty and the question.

A sort of a balance approach. I think is woth to taste

best regards

carcass

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22 Jan 2013, 08:34
3rd scenario added: first 14 questions answered correctly, then 10 questions answered incorrectly and finally the remaining 13 questions answered correctly.

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24 Jan 2013, 22:48
Awesome initiative!! The use of crystal clear language unties all knots.

Eagerly waiting for the Verbal What-if scenarios... :)

Just a quick Q, does GMATPrep simulate experimental questions in the same way as the test???

I think you might have even conducted multiple cycles of the same scenario. Was there no difference in the end scores?

Because I guess only experimental questions can introduce an error margin and it would be great to quantify that if possible... :-D

Thanks to all... :-D
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28 Jan 2013, 00:12
soumens
Awesome initiative!! The use of crystal clear language unties all knots.

Eagerly waiting for the Verbal What-if scenarios... :)

Just a quick Q, does GMATPrep simulate experimental questions in the same way as the test???

I think you might have even conducted multiple cycles of the same scenario. Was there no difference in the end scores?

Because I guess only experimental questions can introduce an error margin and it would be great to quantify that if possible... :-D

Thanks to all... :-D
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Important Clarification: we have a strong reason to believe that even though GMAT Prep is the closest algorithm to the GMAT, it is most likely NOT identical. Some of these scenarios may result into a different outcome when attempted on the real test. We so far have no reports to confirm or dismiss these results based on the test day experience.

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01 Feb 2013, 14:52
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02 Feb 2013, 11:59
GMAC Continues to emphasize that the first 10 questions are not important.... which I think is a very absolute statement which does not appear so absolute based on our observations.
https://www.mba.com/the-gmat/prepare-for ... -that.aspx

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05 Mar 2013, 02:36
Ok here I go, I hope this doesn't get taken down due to being a childish quesiton but:

about CR placement and its affect on score? Most of my wrong in the Verbal Section are CR and they seem pretty darn insignificant. I am still hitting mid 80s percentile in verbal while getting the majority of CR questions wrong

I'm also confused on how to devise a pacing strategy for verbal as I had done with Math by the correctness/guessing based on the number of question.

and I give me corresponding 15minutes OR 8 questions for quant a couple of minutes plus or minus depending on wher ethey fall into that general pace.

For verbal as of now I mentally just give earlier questions some extra time and pace myself through the rest. It seems like verbal is much less rigid when it comes to results and pacing.
How would I devise a pacing strategy for verbal then since, from what I understand, the placement of the SC/RC is random and more important is what comes first?
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07 Mar 2013, 07:25
Manimgoindowndown, I don't think it's true that CR is insignificant at all, and it's not weighted any differently than the other two verbal question types. If you're doing well on SC and RC, then it's certainly possible to get into the high 30s while having some serious CR deficiencies. But it's not because CR is insignificant--it's just because your overall, combined verbal level merits that score.

And hey, if you're able to score around the 85th percentile with some CR weaknesses, imagine what you could do if you improved your CR skills!

I don't think that pacing benchmarks are usually very helpful on the verbal section. This might sound really obvious, but most verbal mistakes happen because you misread or misinterpreted something, for one reason or another. A very tiny lapse in focus can cause you to miss a question, and that's a (presumably deliberate) design feature of GMAT verbal questions.

I think that benchmarking can actually cause you to make more of those small reading errors on the GMAT. On CR and RC questions, a huge proportion of your time will be spent reading and digesting the passage. You can't really do much to accelerate that process, unless you're willing to sacrifice accuracy. And the same is true when you start looking through the answer choices--what are you going to do, skim them to save time? That doesn't make much sense--if you're not reading carefully, you're extremely likely to miss the question, and you'll only save yourself 10-20 seconds in the process, since the bulk of your time is inevitably spent reading the passage, anyway.

So I just don't see the benefit of benchmarking for most people. If you hurry on verbal questions so that you have time to answer question #41, you'll probably screw yourself out of at least one question early in the test, and that's a crappy tradeoff. If you miss an easy question early, it will change the trajectory of the entire test, and your score will be disproportionately damaged. If you kick butt on questions #1-38, then questions #39-41 won't matter all that much.

I know that I'm in the minority on this, but I think you're better off answering questions thoroughly, methodically, and consistently throughout the verbal section. Don't cheat yourself out of a right answer early in the section just to hit some timing benchmarks.

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13 Mar 2013, 15:42
Awesome work, Bunuel and Vercules!

It's interesting to see that omitting the last seven quant questions is so deadly on GMATPrep, since the fine folks at GMAC insist that there isn't a huge difference between guessing and omitting questions at the end of each section. They published an official blog post on that issue a couple of years ago (https://officialgmat.mba.com/2009/09/17/ ... g/#more-57) and there's also an accompanying research study on the GMAC website (https://www.gmac.com/~/media/Files/gmac/ ... ssWhat.pdf).

Basically, GMAC argues that there isn't really a meaningful difference between guessing and omitting the last five questions on verbal. They also argue that you're better off omitting the last five if you're doing badly on the quant section, and you're better off guessing only if you're a "high ability" test-taker on the quant section. Interesting.

I guess there are a few ways to look at the differences between the GMATPrep results and the GMAC's official statements. It's possible that the GMATPrep software runs a substantially different algorithm than the actual test, but I think it's more likely that the dramatic result in Bunuel's study is the result of an extra couple of questions (omitting seven questions probably does substantially more damage than missing five) and the fact that he is clearly in the "high ability" category. :-D

A large proportion of GMAT Club members will ultimately do well on quant, so it's best for most members to guess at the end of the quant section instead of omitting questions. But on the verbal section--or for test-takers who aren't strong at quant--maybe it doesn't really matter all that much?

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23 Mar 2014, 14:37
But is the scoring algorithm here indicative of the actual GMAT?

Also, because we don't know for sure whether we got a question correct or not immediately after answering it, does one dare to actually skip (guess) questions 11-19, and only start trying from questions 20-28... and then guessing the remainder? What if you thought you got them right... but you didn't... now you blew around 1/2 the questions that you could've used to bring your score back up? thoughts?

Also, just wondering how difficult were the 1-10 and 20-28 questions you were getting? were they mostly 700-800 questions??

Either way thanks for your time... its great information but I'm just wondering if I dare to use it as an actual strategy on test day.
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23 Mar 2014, 16:00
simonj13
But is the scoring algorithm here indicative of the actual GMAT?

Also, because we don't know for sure whether we got a question correct or not immediately after answering it, does one dare to actually skip (guess) questions 11-19, and only start trying from questions 20-28... and then guessing the remainder? What if you thought you got them right... but you didn't... now you blew around 1/2 the questions that you could've used to bring your score back up? thoughts?

Also, just wondering how difficult were the 1-10 and 20-28 questions you were getting? were they mostly 700-800 questions??

Either way thanks for your time... its great information but I'm just wondering if I dare to use it as an actual strategy on test day.
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WE DO NOT KNOW THE ACTUAL GMAT ALGORITHM.
It is in some ways and it is not in others. The official algorithm is much more complex and has multiple checks/verifications to prevent fraud/cheating.
If you have to skip as many questions, it is a tough situation. Try to get a better handle on your timing.

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13 Apr 2014, 11:26
Hi Bunuel,

May I ask which version of the GMAT Prep Software did you use for this analysis?
And how did you reset the software? Because in v2.2.306 we have to login using our mba.com account so I am not sure whether the reset methods given in another post still work.

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14 Apr 2014, 01:19
aquax
Hi Bunuel,

May I ask which version of the GMAT Prep Software did you use for this analysis?
And how did you reset the software? Because in v2.2.306 we have to login using our mba.com account so I am not sure whether the reset methods given in another post still work.

Thanks.
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2.1.294 version.

In that version (at least) there is a reset button under "Take a practice exam" page.

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08 May 2015, 10:04
These kinds of GMATPrep experiments are fine, but it's extremely easy to arrive at incorrect conclusions from them, unless you understand how the scoring algorithm works. Some of the conclusions drawn in this thread are not correct, though in some cases it will take me some time to explain why. I'll try to do so over a few posts in the coming days. For example, here:

Vercules


Analysis/ Conclusion :



Results from 15 tests show that on average an Option 'C' carries a higher probability of being correct and option B carries the lowest. ...

But if you have to guess one or two and you have no idea/ time for the question mark 'C'.
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There is a GMAC research report which explicitly states that they control for 'answer position' when designing the GMAT. That is, no one answer choice is right more often than another. I've also verified that independently; looking over more than 1000 official questions, each answer choice is correct roughly equally often.

That said, if you look only at a small sample of questions, one answer choice might appear to be correct more often than another, just because of random variance. If you do a binomial probability calculation, then if each answer choice has a 20% chance to be correct on a random GMAT question, it would not be all that improbable for one answer choice to be correct 13 times on one GMAT Quant test (that should happen on about 2% of tests). Since your samples do not appear to be independent (I assume you were using the same GMATPrep test repeatedly, in which case it would not be surprising to get similar results each time because of question repetition), the most likely explanation for your findings is pure random luck.

But if instead you assume that your finding is meaningful, and that, when guessing randomly at every question, C is the most likely answer to be correct, what would that finding mean? It might seem paradoxical, but it means that test takers who need to guess almost certainly should not guess C. If you accept (and all the evidence I have confirms this) that each answer is correct about 20% of the time, then if C is the right answer more often when you guess at every question, that means C is more often the right answer on the absolute easiest questions. For C then to be correct 20% of the time overall, C would need to be correct less often on the harder questions. And those are the questions people need to guess at.

Even if you don't believe each answer is right 20% of the time, knowing which answer is more often correct on 200-level questions is of no help to test takers unless they'll need to guess at 200-level questions, which almost no one needs to do. So it would not be a relevant finding for most test takers anyway. But all of the evidence I've seen suggests to me that no one answer choice is a better guess than another, if you need to guess purely at random. The best strategy in that case is simply to guess as quickly as possible.

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10 May 2015, 06:00
To understand the meaning of other experiments in this thread, it's important to understand how the scoring algorithm works. There are really two parts to the algorithm:

• the actual scoring algorithm, which determines your score based on your answers
• the question selection algorithm, which determines, based on your previous answers, which question you see next

The scoring algorithm itself is completely blind to question position. If you were to take a GMAT, and all 37 questions were 500-level, you'd get exactly the same score by answering the first 25 correctly and the last 12 incorrectly as you'd get by answering the first 12 incorrectly and the last 25 correctly. The scoring algorithm itself knows nothing about where each question was in the test; it's simply not a factor in the calculation.

What does change, though, based on your answers, are the questions you see later in the test. When you do well early on, you'll more likely see hard questions later, and if you do badly early on, you'll more likely see easy questions. Note though that every test is different. If you answer, say, your first five questions correctly (which is outstanding). The test will then be quite confident you're a high-level test taker, and will want to give you a very hard question. But your ability estimate is not the only factor the test uses to select your next question. The test also needs to meet content requirements (more than one - it needs to deliver the correct balance of math topics, and also the correct balance of PS and DS questions), and there are security conditions as well (no question is used too often, in order to prevent people from getting a big advantage by learning about test questions in advance of the test). The question database is not enormous for a single test, which means that, if you get your first 5 questions right, while the test might want to make your sixth question a 760-level question, there may not be a question exactly at that level that meets all of the conditions the test needs to meet. So depending on the database on the day you take your test, you might get a 700-level question at that point, or an 800-level question.

So every test is different, which is why you'll get different results each time when you carry out experiments where you get questions in certain positions wrong (every odd numbered question, say). I have the impression that the assumption behind those experiments is that questions are 'weighted' by their position in the test (that early questions count more than later ones), and that's not the case.

To demonstrate this, I did just carry out two trials using two different GMATPrep Quant tests, where I answered every prime numbered question (2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37) incorrectly. On the first attempt, my score was Q33, and on the second, it was Q38. That's quite a big difference.

I'm not precisely sure what the purpose of these experiments is, testing how wrong answers in different places will affect your score, but if the goal is to find certain question numbers that are especially important or unimportant, you simply won't be able to do that. It's not how the test works.

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09 Jun 2015, 09:53
A surprising turn of events. In the Official GMAT Monthly this was featured in their FAQ section:

Q: Are the practice GMAT tests on the software indicative of how well you'll do on the actual GMAT?
A: GMATPrep® software uses real GMAT test questions and the actual GMAT CAT® test delivery and scoring algorithm. It should help you to gauge your preparedness for the GMAT exam. Note - the predictive value of these tests may be affected by the extent to which actual testing conditions are adhered to during practice testing sessions. For example, if you were to suspend testing and resume the test later, an option that you have with GMATPrep software but not with the actual GMAT CAT exam, you might score higher on GMATPrep test than you would otherwise.


Previously it was stated/believed that the GMAT Prep and GMAT used different algorithms (a more simplified algorithm was used in GMAT Prep)

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Previously it was stated/believed that the GMAT Prep and GMAT used different algorithms (a more simplified algorithm was used in GMAT Prep)
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I'm almost certain it is not true, and never has been true, that GMATPrep used a different basic scoring algorithm from the real test. I've never heard any official statement that would make me think otherwise, and if there has been one, I'd love to see a link.

The fundamental scoring algorithm used in GMATPrep really has to be the same as is used in the actual GMAT, because the scoring is just based on probability theory, and GMAC isn't free to change the laws of math. There are differences between GMATPrep and the GMAT (for example, GMATPrep does not insert experimental questions in the way the real test does), but those differences don't have to do with the actual scoring of the test.Those differences almost certainly still exist, so I don't think this recent announcement is new information, or signals any change in the GMATPrep tests.

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