Although the mathematical validity of the laws of

Question

Although the mathematical validity of the laws of probability is indisputable, most people do not trust the dictates of these laws. Even among people who claim to have studied probability theory, for instance, a majority express a greater fear of flying on commercial airlines than of driving an automobile on our nation’s highways, despite the fact that the probability
that one would suffer an automobile-related death or injury by choosing to drive is more than twenty times the probability of an airline-related death or injury if one chooses to fly.
 
Which one of the following, if true, provides the best explanation for people’s mistrust of the laws of
probability in the case described above?

A. A complete understanding of the laws of probability requires a thorough knowledge of advanced statistical analysis techniques.
B. People who studied probability theory in an academic environment may be ill equipped to apply that knowledge to real-world situations.
C. People tend to suspend their belief in probability when they feel somewhat in control of their own fate.
D. The probability of automobile-related injury or death is not significant enough to dissuade many people from driving.
E. The greatest risk to the individual driver in terms of automobile-related injuries or fatalities are the actions of the other drivers on the road

ChrisLele · Accepted Answer

I'll start by dissecting the argument:

People who study probability do not apply it in real-life.

They choose to drive vs. fly, even though the former is 20 times as dangerous.

What can account for this discrepancy?

So let's compare flying with driving. When we drive, we have control of the vehicle. When we fly, we have absolutely no control.

(C) says that people discount probability when they think believe they are in control of their own fate. Another way of looking at (C): even though people who've studied probability know it is much more dangerous to drive, that knowledge takes a backseat (so to speak) to the belief that they are in control when they are driving.

Thus (C) is the answer.

(E) just provides a breakdown of road risk (it's usually other drivers). (E) doesn't explain why those who have studied probability mistrust its dictates in the case of flying vs. driving.

kraizada84 · Answer

straight E.
stuck between C and E,
C is just not relevant. E better stand for the case described.

boomtangboy · Answer

Hi,

I think its C.

The stimlus clearly states that the automobile vs plane is an example. Further the stimulus does not provide any information regarding whether the accident is caused by other driver or the individual himself.

iwillcrackgmat · Answer

C seems to be the plausible answer compared to E

My answer is C

I am sorry that I dont know the OA for this question, so a brainstorming is helpful.

Nanushka · Answer

Thanks Chris,

I understand how C explains the situation.But I think answer choice B is very strong too and can equally be correct. Could you please explain what is wrong with answer choice B here?

thevenus · Answer

POE works !!!
only (C) states the belief of people on not-considering the probability thoery.
C. People tend to suspend their belief in probability when they feel somewhat in control of their own fate.
+1 (C)

Skientist · Answer

This is a bridge the gap type of question. There is an apparent discrepancy between what is observed and what should theoretically happen, and we are asked to account for this difference.

A) mentions statistics so is attractive, but doesn't bring us any closer to explaining the discrepancy.

B) explains why people disregard the statistical evidence, but does nothing to bring the argument closer to why people would actively take additional risk. Therefore this answer only halfway bridges the gap between the why should happen, and what does. That makes it an attractive answer, but not quite correct. Furthermore, there is a small clue in the vocabularly used. The text says  even among people who claim to have studied statistical probability  meaning that this argument is true of both people who study probability, and people that don't. Whereas B) only accounts for people that study probability and disregards people that don't.

C) correct as it accounts for the gap between what people believe and how they act.

D) really just restates what we already know. The argument tells us that people who understand statistics will know that the chances of getting hurt in a car accident are much higher that in a plane, but still people would rather drive. The d) tells us that people feel that the risk is low enough that they would still drive. Clearly that is the case or people would neither drive or fly, and we wouldn't be having this argument.

E) is attractive because it mentions automobiles and probabilities, but doesn't actually close this gap. It mearly makes a claim about the origin of injuries sustained in automobile accidents.

Hope that helps!

B.

thevenus · Answer

The premise says that ".......... most people  do not trust  the dictates of these laws. "
so, the situation is not about the "application of knowledge, doesn't matter some one has the knowledge or not and is capable of applying the knowledge which (B) states.

Avinashs87 · Answer

B/w B and C, I choose C. B seems to state the fact that the argument covers already.

Senthil7 · Answer

Although the  mathematical validity of the laws of probability is indisputable , most people  do not trust the dictates  of these laws. Even among people  who claim to have studied probability theory , for instance,  a majority express a greater  fear   of flying on commercial airlines than of driving an automobile on our nation’s highways, despite the fact that the probability that one would suffer an automobile-related death or injury by choosing to drive is more than twenty times the probability of an airline-related death or injury if one chooses to fly.

From the highlighted parts of the argument, it is clear that in spite of sufficient knowledge the people tend to have an unexplained or unfounded fear towards flying by air. The only answer choice that matches the implied meaning of the highlighted portion is  answer choice C.

Be careful about the  trap answer D  as it may be tempting but in a resolve the paradox question the resolution must not focus only on one issue like D does.

chesstitans · Answer

only B and C are left. B is a strengthener and B does not tell why planes, not driving cars, are more fearful. => B is out

Sateni7628 · Answer

Choice C made real sense reading after picking up wrong choice E.

nayanparikh · Answer

Correct answer is C. PFB

A. A complete understanding of the laws of probability requires a thorough knowledge of advanced statistical analysis techniques. -  Not required for the conclusion of the argument. 
B. People who studied probability theory in an academic environment may be ill equipped to apply that knowledge to real-world situations. -  Premise does't mention of the People's ability to apply probability theory. 
C. People tend to suspend their belief in probability when they feel somewhat in control of their own fate. -  Correct. If people strongly believe that they can control their own fate, giving conclusion weakens. 
D. The probability of automobile-related injury or death is not significant enough to dissuade many people from driving. -  Out of Scope 
E. The greatest risk to the individual driver in terms of automobile-related injuries or fatalities are the actions of the other drivers on the road  -  Out of scope

wickedvikram · Answer

QS - People's  mistrust  in Probability laws in case mentioned

A. A complete understanding of the laws of probability requires a thorough knowledge of advanced statistical analysis techniques.
Reason for mistrust - lack of thorough knowledge of advanced statistical analysis techniques
Problem - question asks about mistrust,  explanation is about inability to understand . People might already understand or not, but reason for not trusting is not given

B. People who studied probability theory in an academic environment may be ill equipped to apply that knowledge to real-world situations.
Reason for mistrust - ill equipped to apply that knowledge
Problem -  Doesn't cover mistrust , explanation is about  inability to apply understanding  in real world

C. People tend to suspend their belief in probability when they feel somewhat in control of their own fate.
Reason for mistrust -  control of their own fate

D. The probability of automobile-related injury or death is not significant enough to dissuade many people from driving
Reason for mistrust - Not available. Talks about reason for lack of mistrust in automobile injuries/deaths
Problem -  Out of scope

E. The greatest risk to the individual driver in terms of automobile-related injuries or fatalities are the actions of the other drivers on the road
Reason for mistrust - Not available. Talks about one of the factors unrelated to mistrust in probability
Problem -  Out of scope

egmat · Answer

Question Type:  Paradox / Explain the Discrepancy

The Paradox: 
People  KNOW  flying is  20x safer  than driving. Yet they  FEAR flying more . Why does this illogical behavior occur?

The Key Insight: 
This comes down to  perceived control vs. actual statistics .

• When you  drive : You hold the steering wheel, you decide when to brake, you feel like YOUR actions determine YOUR fate. This creates an  illusion of control .

• When you  fly : You're a passive passenger. You can do NOTHING to influence the outcome. You feel  helpless .

Why (C) is Correct: 
Answer (C) states:  "People tend to suspend their belief in probability when they feel somewhat in control of their own fate."

This  perfectly bridges the gap :
•  Driving  = Feel in control → Suspend belief in probability → Underestimate danger
•  Flying  = Feel NO control → Cannot suspend probability belief → Fear remains high

Why Other Answers Fail:

(A)  "Requires advanced statistical knowledge"
 Problem:  The passage specifically mentions "even among people who  claim to have studied probability theory " – so lack of knowledge isn't the issue.

(B)  "Academic study ≠ real-world application"
 Problem:  This explains a general gap, but doesn't explain WHY fear goes specifically toward flying (the safer option) rather than driving (the dangerous one).

(D)  "Probability isn't significant enough to dissuade"
 Problem:  This just  restates  the problem (people drive despite risk). It doesn't  explain  WHY they discount driving risk while magnifying flying risk.

(E)  "Other drivers are the greatest risk"
 Problem:  This would make driving seem  MORE  dangerous, not less. It works  against  the paradox we need to explain.

Answer: C

Although the mathematical validity of the laws of

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