For a ten-month period, the total monthly sales of new cars within the

Question

For a ten-month period, the total monthly sales of new cars within the country of Calistan remained constant. During this period the monthly sales of new cars manufactured by Marvel Automobile Company doubled, and its share of the new car market within Calistan increased correspondingly. At the end of this period, emission standards were imposed on new cars sold within Calistan. During the three months following this imposition, Marvel Automobile Company’s share of the Calistan market declined substantially even though its monthly sales within Calistan remained constant at the level reached in the last month of the ten-month period.

If the statements above are true, which one of the following CANNOT be true?

(A) The total monthly sales within Calistan of new cars by companies other than Marvel Automobile Company decreased over the three months following the imposition of the emission standards.

(B) Over the three months before the imposition of the emission standards, the combined market share of companies other than Marvel Automobile Company selling new cars in Calistan decreased.

(C) If the emission standards had not been imposed, Marvel Automobile Company would have lost an even larger share of the number of new cars sold in Calistan than, in fact, it did.

(D) A decrease in the total monthly sales of new cars within Calistan will occur if the emission standards remain in effect.

(E) Since the imposition of the emission standards, Marvel Automobile Company’s average profit on each new car sold within Calistan has increased.

Source  :  LSAT PrepTest 31 Q#15

Bunuel · Accepted Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION

The correct answer choice is (A).

Let us first review the facts given in the stimulus:  Statement:  For a ten-month period, the total monthly sales of new cars within the country of Calistan remained constant. The wording of this statement should alert you that numbers and percentages in the form of market share (“monthly sales...remained constant”) may be an issue in this problem. Note that the statement is a simple fact; no explanation is given for why the total sales stayed constant.  Statement:  During this period the monthly sales of new cars manufactured by Marvel Automobile Company doubled, and its share of the new car market within Calistan increased correspondingly. If total monthly sales of new cars remains constant and Marvel’s sales doubled, then Marvel’s share of the new car market must also have doubled. Again, no explanation for Marvel’s increase is given; the increase is just stated as a fact.  Statement:  At the end of this period, emission standards were imposed on new cars sold within Calistan. Imposing new emission standards serves as a chronology marker in this stimulus. Again, no explanation is given for why the new standards were imposed.  Statement:  During the three months following this imposition, Marvel Automobile Company’s share of the Calistan market declined substantially even though its monthly sales within Calistan remained constant at the level reached in the last month of the ten-month period. This sentence is the key to the stimulus. From a numbers and percentages standpoint, we are given two pieces of related information: during the three months after the emissions standards were imposed, Marvel’s monthly sales of new cars within Calistan remained constant at the pre-standards level, and at the same time Marvel’s share of the market declined. From the discussion in Chapter Seventeen, we know that if sales remain constant but the share represented by those sales decreased, then the overall sales in the market must have increased. For example:

*****************************pre-Standards post-Standards  
Marvel’s Monthly New Car Sales 10 10 
Total Monthly New Car Sales in Calistan 100 200 
Marvel’s Market Share 10% 5%

The other important part of this sentence is what is not said. No cause is given for Marvel’s decline, and you cannot assume that the new emissions standards are the cause of the decline (causal indicators are needed to convey causality, and none are present in this stimulus). Remember, one error of causal reasoning is to assume that because two things occur in sequence that one caused the other. There could be many different explanations for Marvel’s decline other than the new emission standards. For example, Marvel could have raised their car prices or perhaps Marvel received some negative publicity about the quality of their cars. Regardless, the problem is clearly designed to test whether you will fall into the trap of assuming that the new emission standards caused Marvel to lose market share, so read carefully and do not fill in the “spaces” in the stimulus.

Answer choice (A): This is the correct answer. As shown in the discussion of the last sentence of the stimulus, in the three months after the imposition of the emissions standards, the total monthly car sales in Calistan must have risen, and since Marvel’s monthly car sales remained constant, we can conclude that the sales of other car makers must have risen. Since this answer claims they decreased, this answer cannot be true and is correct.

Answer choice (B): This answer is possibly true. The stimulus indicates that Marvel doubled sales and market share in the ten months prior to the imposition of the emissions standards, and it is possible that in the three months prior to the implementation of the new standards the market share of the other companies decreased. Some students look at this answer and assume that it must be true based on the first two sentences of the stimulus. But that judgment assumes that Marvel’s growth during the ten-month period was constant, a circumstance never stated by the author. It would be consistent with the stimulus if Marvel doubled sales in the first month and then remained constant for the remaining nine months.

Answer choice (C): No reason is given for Marvel’s loss of market share (or alternately, the increased sales of other manufacturers), so it is possible that the new emission standards actually decreased Marvel’s loss of market share (or alternately, the emission standards limited the increase in sales of the other manufacturers). Remember, no explanation is given for the situation after the imposition of the emission standards, so whatever happened in the absence of the standards could always be true.

Answer choice (D): This answer could occur because Calistan’s future car sales could fall due to a variety of causes (including the emission standards). This is true regardless of whether the emissions standards remain in force because we know nothing of the effect of the standards.

Answer choice (E): No information is given about profit in the stimulus, so this answer choice could be true.

VyshakhR1995 · Answer

"During the three months following this imposition, Marvel Automobile Company’s share of the Calistan market declined substantially even though its monthly sales within Calistan remained constant at the level reached in the last month of the ten-month period. "

For share to decrease even though its monthly sales within Calistan remained constant ----> The total monthly sales within Calistan of new cars by companies other than Marvel Automobile Company increased over the three months following the imposition of the emission standards.

Hence A cannot be true

VerbalBot · Answer

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