This is my third time writing an AWA. For some reason, I found it more challenging than the others and therefor wanted someone to review it if possible. Any and all insight and help is appreciated! The prompt was as follows:
"Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc."
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The idea that the investments should be transferred from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is a flawed argument. It bases its argument on three main assumptions that are in themselves flawed.
First off, the decision to alter the nature of the investments is flawed because it relies heavily on the fact that there is an inverse relationship between coffee and age that has been relevant formerly 40 years. While it is important to look at historical points as premises, one cannot base their argument solely on such. By doing so, the business plan fails to look at changes in consumer preferences. For example, while there may be this inverse relationship that holds true, consumers may be looking for diet cola drinks more-so than previously which could impact this inverse relationship. Furthermore, consumers may in fact be moving to alternatives outside of coffee and cola such as flavor seltzers, teas, or health drinks. In order to strengthen the argument that the past trends will continue, the firm needs to look if previous drink alternatives affected trends, what trends consumers are currently intone to, and what market entrants could uproot the trend in the future. Simple market research studies could aide in strengthening the current trends.
In addition, the argument is also flawed because it fails to look at new members in the age cohorts and instead focuses on those only currently alive. While it is in fact true the population will age from 10-60, those younger than 10 and even those born are completely looked over. The younger aged people that do drink cola more frequently will be replenished as those who age follow a potential trend of drinking more coffee. The very nature of this impacts the statement that “the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease”. If people that are young tend to drink cola, there will infect be no decrease unless there are additional outside variables that the argument fails to look at. Again as men toned previously, these outside factors could be, but are not limited to, drink alternatives. To use this premise as support, the consulting and investment firm need to prove that there are fewer people born than those ages. If less people are born and thus less filling the younger age groups from 10-60, only then is there a possibility that the demand for cola will in fact decrease.
Therefore, the argument is flawed as it fails to look at the historical trend properly, but it fails to consider the replenishment of people into the considered age group. To strengthen the argument and be sure that the transfer of the investments is a good idea, the consulting and investment firm can look at consumer trends, drink alternatives, and demographic information.