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Wish I get CRs like this one on my GMAT, due in a month ;-)
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thinktank
Although most smoking-related illnesses are caused by inhaling the tar in tobacco smoke, it is addiction to nicotine that prevents most smokers from quitting. In an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette by half over the next five years. Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government's plan?

A. The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.

B. Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.

C. The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years.

D. The proportion of Sandonian's attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years.

E. The number of Sandonian's who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years.

+1 if u like the Q :)

The key to solving this CR are the following 2 sentences -

In an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette.
Smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

From these 2 sentences we can safely conclude that the desired intent of reducing the incidence of smoking related illness will not happen, as the smokers will try to take intake their daily requirement on Nictone by smoking more cigerettes.

So, among the given options only (A) works fine Errors in the other otpions highlighted in red, above...
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A. The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years. - It must be true since the reduction is mainly applied to the amount of nicotine

B. Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously. - We cannot be sure that more people will start smoking

C. The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years. - We cannot be sure that the number of people with smoke related illness will decrease. If anything this is anti-premise

D. The proportion of Sandonian's attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years. - Maybe, maybe not, hard to say

E. The number of Sandonian's who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years. - Again, this goes against the premise that lowering nicotine might increase number of cigarettes smoked
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A. CORRECT.
Since people who are addicted to nicotine will smoke more cigarettes to balance out the lower nicotine content,
selling cigarettes with less nicotine will not help them quit smoking. Thereby the amount of tar consumed by
these people will not decrease as per the government's plan
Note: we cannot say that the tar consumption will increase. We know that the new cigarettes will have less
nicotine. Will it correspondingly have reduced tar in its tobacco smoke? We don't know. All we know is that since
the number of cigarettes being consumed is more than before, the amount of tar cannot be less for sure.
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